While Washington’s hard stance currently keeps gold prices in check, beneath the surface of the trading floor capital is mass‑moving toward the still under‑priced silver. The latest prestigious report "In Gold We Trust 2026" fuels the fire, with its authors proclaiming the dawn of a new monetary era and warning that a great commodity comeback is imminent, rendering current investment portfolio models obsolete.
The protocol from last week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting sheds new light on global precious‑metal markets. The Fed’s "minutes" clearly indicate that the U.S. central bank is systematically moving away from a narrative of monetary easing.
Growing concerns among officials about inflation driven by the Iran conflict are causing an increasing number of FOMC members to oppose a dovish stance, and most decision‑makers have outright stated that "some tightening of policy will probably be appropriate" if price pressure does not ease.
We already know the content of the Fed minutes, and they leave no room for doubt: the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, inherits a group of central bankers that are exceptionally hawkish. The market must accept that the Fed is officially stepping away from a rate‑cut path, and the specter of further hikes is now looming. Such a scenario naturally keeps gold prices in temporary check, but investor attention is increasingly shifting toward silver, which shows huge fundamental potential – comments Michał Tekliński, Goldsaver and Goldenmark gold market expert.
Silver at $180 per ounce?
The Gold to Silver Ratio has stabilized at around 59 points, historically signaling a strong position for the white metal. Market analysts forecast robust silver gains through the end of the year, with the most optimistic scenarios projecting a move toward even $180 per ounce. According to Michał Tekliński, however, this is unlikely. Despite last year’s dynamic rise, the demand structure has changed.
The largest consumer of silver in recent years, the photovoltaic industry, has reduced its metal demand by adjusting production structures in response to high prices. Even with a decline in demand from this sector, overall silver demand still exceeds supply capabilities. This means that silver prices will likely rise, but not as dynamically as last year, and the $180 level this year is unlikely to be reached – the Goldsaver and Goldenmark expert emphasizes.
Of course, the driving force behind silver remains technological demand. While UBS strategists Wayne Gordon and Dominic Schnider recently lowered their estimates of the global silver supply shortfall in 2026 from 300 million to about 60‑70 million ounces, this drop is mainly due to a temporarily weaker PV demand caused by high raw‑material prices. Even though the projected shortfall is expected to shrink by up to 80% according to UBS, the silver market remains a shortage market.
In the long term, the fundamental importance lies in technological transformation – the only real risk to the metal would be a widespread adoption of entirely silver‑free technologies, which is unlikely in the foreseeable future. In summary: silver has very good prospects, and its fundamental supply simply shrinks – adds Michał Tekliński.
According to The Silver Institute report, this market has entered a permanent deficit phase. 2026 is expected to be the sixth consecutive year of supply shortfall, estimated at 1,439 tons. The photovoltaic industry, electronics, and technological transformation generate market pull that cannot be met with current mining capacities.
Time for a "new 60/40 portfolio"
The thesis of a new commodity cycle is confirmed by the newly released annual report "In Gold We Trust 2026" – regarded as the bible of precious‑metal investors. Its authors point to fundamental changes in the world’s financial architecture, introducing the concept of a "great reset of the gold‑to‑debt relationship". The report’s key theses paint a picture of a reality where traditional paper assets lose their protective power:
- The end of 60/40 diversification: The report announces the final death of the classic investment portfolio consisting of 60% equities and 40% bonds. In an era of permanent inflation, treasury bonds cease to be a safe haven, and their place in institutional portfolios is permanently taken by commodities and physical metals.
- New inflation regime: Analysts emphasize that Western central banks have secretly capitulated in the fight against inflation and will be forced to accept a higher inflation target (3‑4%) so that governments can "pump" massive public debt. This environment is ideal for physical metals.
- The silver awakening: The report dedicates a section to silver, indicating that we are entering a decade of critical shortages of metals essential for energy transition. Silver, as a metal with dual nature (monetary and industrial), becomes a key beneficiary of this trend.
The current market situation is a classic convergence of two powerful forces. On one hand, the hawkish Fed and Kevin Warsh’s hard rhetoric act as a handbrake on gold pricing expressed in paper dollars. On the other hand, solid fundamental data clearly show that physical silver supply is simply shrinking.
We stand at the threshold of a deep redefinition of what we understand by a safe investment portfolio. When official reports, such as "In Gold We Trust", explicitly warn against the insolvency of traditional investment models, the time for discussing the validity of holding precious metals is over. Today’s gold price stabilization and technical corrections are the calm before the storm. When the market finally realizes that U.S. rates will not fall and inflation will stay with us for years, the unleashed energy of technological and monetary demand will push silver and gold to levels many consider unrealistic today. Physical bullion in a safe deposit box stops being an alternative – it becomes an absolute necessity for anyone who wants to preserve the purchasing power of their wealth – summarizes Michał Tekliński.
