Today we will learn the preliminary July readings of the PMI indicators for Germany and the euro zone. In the US, data on new home sales for June will be released.
In June, the momentum of new industrial orders fell to 11.7% YoY, thus normalizing relative to the sharp rise of 143.3% YoY in May (which may have been linked to orders placed under the SAFE program).
However, it is worth noting that despite the normalization relative to May, the June result was still the second highest since November 2025. The momentum of foreign orders remained strong, rising to 7.6% YoY from 6.2% YoY, giving hope for an improvement in domestic export performance.
The transaction price dynamics of Polish exports fell in April to -6.3% YoY from -2.7% YoY in March. As a result, despite a decline in nominal export growth to 5.9% YoY from 10.0% YoY, its real value remained at about 13% YoY in April for the second month.
At the same time, the transaction price dynamics of imports rose to 1.2% YoY from -1.6% YoY, contributing to a decline in real import growth in April to 6.5% YoY from 10.1% YoY. Similar to the previously described rise in foreign orders, the behavior of transaction prices in foreign trade – if maintained in May and June – could be a factor improving the net export contribution to GDP growth in Q2.
The recorded unemployment rate fell in June to 5.8% from 5.9% in May, as expected.
The ECB Governing Council kept interest rates unchanged, as expected.
The decision announcement stated that uncertainty remains high, and the full translation of the energy shock into inflation will only occur later.
The Council also assessed that it remains in a favorable position to navigate the uncertainty triggered by the war in the Middle East.
At the post‑decision conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde conveyed that some Council members had wondered whether a rate hike would be appropriate.
Nevertheless, as she added, the decision to keep rates unchanged was unanimous.
EUR/PLN falls below 4.33
The EUR/PLN rate experienced a temporary drop below 4.33 on Thursday, but ended the European session again above that threshold. The weakening of the zloty against the euro occurred amid rising Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel, likely reacting to Donald Trump’s announcement of harsh attacks on Iran in case of renewed shelling of ships in the Red Sea by Yemeni Houthi forces.
A sharp decline in the EUR/USD rate occurred, from about 1.143 at the start of the European session to below 1.138 at its end.
Domestic bond yields and money market rates rose sharply on Thursday in response to higher oil prices and the resulting increase in inflation risk. Polish bond yields rose by about 14‑15 basis points across the curve. IRS rates rose by 14‑17 basis points, and FRA rates by 3‑24 basis points, with those for transactions at least nine months out rising by over 20 basis points.
