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France’s Social Security Budget Passes by Narrow Margin, Raising Fiscal Risks for 2026

France passed its social security budget, but the state budget remains unresolved, and the deficit outlook is worsening

China’s CPI Rises to a 21-Month High, Easing Deflation Fears but Keeping PPI in the Red

A surge in fresh vegetable prices helped propel China’s food inflation back to positive territory and headline CPI inflation to a 21-month high of 0.7% year on year in November

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Poland’s Strong Consumption and Investment Point to Robust Growth with Mild Inflation Outlook

Combine rebounding investment with continued strength in private spending and you have a recipe for stronger economic growth. October's set of data suggests that GDP growth in the fourth quarter is likely to beat the 3.7% year-on-year rate posted in the third. At the same time, inflation is declining, which paves the way for another rate cut in December

German Optimism Corrected Amid Structural Challenges; Fiscal Stimulus Offers Glimmer of Hope

With dropping expectations and an only somewhat improving current assessment, the November Ifo index suggests that the German economy remains deeply stuck in stagnation at year-end

Dollar Faces Pressure Amid Ukraine Peace Talks and Fed Data; Euro Gains from Lower Energy Prices

We've been here before, but prospects of a peace deal in Ukraine are starting to show in FX. CEE FX is holding last week's gains, and EUR/CHF is now also edging back above 0.93. Lower energy prices should be supportive for the euro. Further progress on peace discussions and potentially a softer Fed Beige Book on Wednesday could see EUR/USD hold 1.1500

Eurozone: Services Drive Growth Amid Manufacturing Slowdown, Cautious Outlook for 2026

The composite PMI remained broadly unchanged in November (52.4 compared to 52.5 in October), which is well above the neutral level of 50. This suggests that growth in the short run remains decent despite significant global headwinds

Sustainability Omnibus I: Assessing the Impact of Proposed Scope Reductions on the European Banking Sector

As negotiations to reach a final Omnibus I proposal have started, we analyse the impact each proposal would have on European banks. Despite the variations, all three proposals suggest a single path towards major scope reductions. This would be a positive for banks no longer required to report on ESG but complicate disclosures for those still in scope

Early Third-Quarter Data Shows Stagnation Amid Weak Labour Market

Romania’s economy delivered a mild upside surprise in the third quarter. The flash estimate points to 1.6% annual growth, above our expectations, although it still contracted by 0.2% versus the previous quarter. Taken together, after nine months of 2025, the economy is 0.8% above the same period of 2024

IEA Signals Strong Global Oil Supply as Inventories Rise and Seasonal Factors Tighten Middle Distillates

Oil prices managed to edge higher yesterday, despite several bearish data releasesa

Refined Product Strength Drives Oil Prices Higher; Cocoa Market Eases on Improved Supply

The oil market rallied yesterday, boosted by the strength of the refined products market

USD Rally Loses Momentum as Global Central Banks Signal Diverging Paths

It has been a mixed week for the dollar, where early-week strength finally eased a little yesterday on indications of softer US jobs data. Yet with the US government shutdown ongoing, we are still in the dark about the true labour market picture. Expect more $ consolidation and focus on regional stories such as soft China trade data and the Canada jobs release

German Exports Rebound in September but Structural Headwinds Persist

Today's data is more evidence of the small rebound of the German economy after the summer. However, the September increase in exports is too weak to dispel concerns about persistent structural weakness

Energy Markets Weaken as Oil Inventories Rise; Record Fund Shorts in TTF Despite Winter Risks

Oil prices settled lower yesterday with a large increase in US crude oil inventories, while surplus expectations for the global oil market will also be providing some headwinds

USD Faces Correction Risks as Dollar Rally Fades; Focus Shifts to BoE, CEE Central Banks

Despite good ADP and ISM services data, the USD has corrected lower. With equities re-stabilising, the risks remain of further USD pullbacks after a rally that has exceeded what rate differentials can justify. Today, we see the BoE on hold despite mounting speculation of a pre-Budget cut. Norges Bank is likely to hold too, with low risks of guidance tweaks

Germany’s Industrial Production Rebounds in September but Structural Weakness Persists

It's the expected rebound in industrial production in September. However, it's a rebound which is too weak to mark any turnaround. Instead, even with some cyclical rebound in the making, structural weaknesses will put a lid on German industrial production for a while

Supreme Court to Decide on Trump’s Tariff Powers Under IEEPA

Today marks the start of the US Supreme Court hearings regarding the legality of some of the US administration’s tariffs. A ruling is expected before the end of the year

US Money Market Liquidity: Calm Surface, Bubbling Undercurrents

Treasuries are treading water, and really should have performed better on a risk-off Tuesday. But the 10yr seems content at above 4% for now. The 2yr has more open road to trek back down to 3.5%. Wednesday’s refunding announcement should be a box-ticking exercise. The plumbing of the money markets is where all the drama is - keep an eye on it

Manufacturing Contracts for the Eighth Consecutive Month

The ISM manufacturing index suggests that the US industrial sector remains under pressure from weak growth and tariff-related uncertainty. The one consolation is that inflation pressures appear to be easing, but the Fed hawks will want to see broader evidence of this before backing a December rate cut

OPEC+ Pauses Supply Increases as Market Faces Uncertainty; China Considers Limits on Metal Smelting Capacity

Oil prices are trading stronger this morning after OPEC+ decided to keep output levels steady over the first quarter of next year. However, this could change given the uncertainty on Russian oil flows following US sanctions

South Korea’s Export Momentum Remains Solid Despite Slowdown in October

South Korean exports increased in October despite fewer working days due to the Chuseok holiday. US tariffs had a clear negative effect, but robust semiconductor and vessel exports offset the impact. With the trade agreement concluded, improved export conditions are expected to support growth in 2026

Euro Swap Rates Poised for Modest Rise as Yield Curves Steepen

Improving eurozone hard data and a stable ECB mean the EUR swap curve should steepen from here. The complexity of estimating Dutch pension reform flows doesn't help the case for a steeper 10s30s. In the US, Treasuries are trading heavily in post-FOMC, and look like they can attempt to continue to do so

Confidence Falters Again as Consumers Turn Cautious, Housing Shows Resilience

US consumer confidence dipped again and remains on par with where we were during the pandemic. Concerns about the potential for tariff-induced price rises, a rapidly cooling jobs market and uncertainties over wealth are all having an influence and point to subdued consumer spending growth over the coming months

Eurozone Growth Prospects and US Rates: Diverging Paths Amid Fiscal Adjustments

A revision of the eurozone's long-term growth outlook would have a significant upward impact on euro swap rates. This is unlikely to happen overnight, but in our view should build gradually over time. In the US, it's a steady state along the coupon curve. But there’s lots going on in the pipes of the money markets as repo tightness persists

Trade Thaw Ignites Commodity Markets: Energy Rebounds, Agriculture Rallies

Positive developments in US-China trade talks over the weekend provided a boost to risk assets, including large parts of the commodities complex

Bank of Korea Likely to Resume Rate Cuts in Early 2026 Amid Housing Market Uncertainty

The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark rate steady at 2.5%, signaling a shift toward a less dovish policy stance. For the second consecutive meeting, one member dissented, while a growing number prioritised financial market stability over economic growth

Japan’s Trade Rebound and BoJ Watch: Exports Strengthen Amid US Tariff Headwinds

Japanese exports recovered mostly in line with market expectations. We cautiously expect US-bound exports to stabilise after the recent trade deal. Stronger-than-expected imports indicate continued investment in AI and semiconductors, supporting growth in the fourth quarter

Poland’s Strong September Industrial Output Boosts Near-Term Outlook, but Manufacturing Uncertainty Keeps NBP Cautious

Poland's industrial output surprised positively in September, but the outlook is uncertain as some auto producers plan plant closures and production pauses by the end of 2025. Wage growth in services is easing; employment is falling amid labour shortages. Policymakers may await more data before resuming rate cuts in 2026

GBP Faces Softening vs EUR as UK Inflation Risks Align with Dovish Outlook; CEE FX Poised for Further Rally

Our economics team expects Wednesday's UK services inflation to undershoot the BoE's projection with a 4.6% read, which is also below the 4.8% consensus. That can modestly move the needle to the dovish side in the GBP swap curve and weigh on the pound this week.

Global Bond Markets: US Regional Banking Worries Drive Flight to Safety, Gilts Rally Ahead of UK Budget

Global bond yields are pushing lower amidst a broader flight to safety, with Gilts leading the way. Even now, Gilt yields still seem high, driven by a hawkish Bank of England and a material risk premium. Gilt swap spreads were more sensitive to French turmoil than to dynamics in US Treasuries or Bunds, but this should change with more budget certainty

Zloty Holds Firm Despite Global Turmoil, Supported by Strong Carry and Solid Growth Outlook

Some of the best performing currencies in the CEE region have started to hand back some of their gains as markets question whether central banks will have to turn more dovish. That's particularly been the case in Hungary. However, our call is that rate cuts are delayed, and the forint can continue to enjoy carry trade interest. CZK and ZAR should also do well

Switzerland Faces Trade War Fallout as US Tariffs Threaten Key Export Sectors

Switzerland’s economy is under significant pressure due to the imposition of US tariffs on Swiss exports. As such, we have revised down our GDP growth forecasts

NBP’s October 25bp Cut — Glapiński’s Justification and the Monetary Outlook

The tone of NBP President Adam Glapinski’s press conference suggested openness to another interest rate cut in November. The new inflation projection, and macroeconomic data published before the November Council meeting will be important in shaping this decision. We assess the probability of another cut in November to be well above 50%

EUR Corporate Bond Supply Surges Toward €400bn in 2025, Driven by TMT and Reverse Yankee Issuance

Foreign tech companies have issued more euro-denominated debt than expected so far in 2025, driven by attractive funding costs in euro markets. This points to European strength. Our expectations for 2025 debt issuance were initially lower as US tech firms can fund their heavy capital expenditure programme from cash flows

US EV Market Faces Setback as Tax Credits Expire, but Long-Term Outlook Remains Resilient

The US electric vehicle market is set to see a correction following the end of federal subsidies. The policy turnaround delays the uptake – but ultimately, we don't think it will change the future or the long-term direction of travel

CIS Region: Growth Resilience Persists Despite Inflation and External Pressures

The CIS region remains resilient amid global uncertainty, with growth outperforming expectations despite persistent inflation and external pressures. Fundamental improvements and ratings upgrades are supportive of sovereign credit in the region, while we expect further steady issuance

ChatGPT Reaches 700M Weekly Users, but AI Productivity Gains Remain Uneven

GenAI use is ramping up fast, offering insights into how people engage with it. OpenAI recently published a deep dive into ChatGPT usage. The findings show that while users apply it to boost productivity, usage patterns vary across demographics – raising questions about who benefits the most from this technology

AUD/NZD Technical Outlook: Bullish Momentum Supported by Diverging Labour Markets

• RBA steady, RBNZ dovish tilt: Australia’s central bank is expected to hold rates at 3.6%, while New Zealand’s weak labour market raises the odds of a more dovish RBNZ stance.
• Widening yield spreads: The 2-year and 10-year AU/NZ sovereign bond yield spreads are likely to widen further, favouring AUD strength over NZD.
• AUD/NZD strength: The cross pair has gained 5.8% since July 2025, hitting a three-year high of 1.1390, supported by relative macro and yield dynamics.

Germany Inflation Rises to 2.4%, But Deflation Risks Loom

Headline inflation has increased to its highest level since the spring, but other German macro data published today suggests that inflation will not be the economy's biggest problem in the months ahead

SNB Holds Rates Steady as Strong Franc and Low Inflation Persist

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept its policy rate unchanged at 0%, as inflation remains very low and economic risks mount. Despite a weakening growth outlook, the SNB is avoiding further easing for now

Markets Mixed: Asian Chip Stocks Gain, Eurozone PMI Divergence, UK Slowdown, and Commodities Steady

Following a technology-fueled surge on Wall Street, Asian stocks were trading near a record high, although shares in Hong Kong and mainland China declined. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pulled back from its earlier highs to trade mostly flat. Stocks in Hong Kong fell 1% as the city was dealing with its most severe typhoon since 2018.

Germany’s Ifo Slump: Optimism Fades as Fiscal Stimulus Meets Political Gridlock

Even without ground control calling, German optimism has been brought down by a mix of US tariffs, a stronger euro and the political inability to combine fiscal stimulus with growth-enhancing reforms

FX Daily: Powell in Focus, Euro Supported by PMIs, CAD Struggles, HUF Holds Firm

As the USD shed some post-Fed gains at the start of this week, the Canadian dollar again stood out as an underperformer. The worsening jobs market, trade uncertainty and possibility of more Bank of Canada rate cuts should keep weighing on CAD against the rest of G10, in our view. Today is PMI day, with central bank speakers (including Powell) still in focus

Fed Cuts Amid Mixed Signals, Europe Faces Fiscal Pressures, CEE Outlook Steady

Have you been wondering what emoji best describes this week's Fed meeting? James Smith is doing his best to win over Gen-Z again this week, as he looks back at a curious US interest rate decision and weighs up Europe's fiscal woes. All that and more in our guide to the week ahead

Fed Rate Cut Expected to Drive Volatility Across USD, EUR, GBP, and CAD

All eyes are on tonight's Fed meeting, where a 25bp rate cut is widely expected. The dollar has been selling off ahead of this event, but there are a few risks. For example, we could see short-dated US rates back up a little and the dollar get a brief bid if the Fed Dot Plots continues to show just 50bp of rate cuts this year compared to the 70bp now priced

Global Sustainable Debt Issuance in 2025: Regional Divergences and Emerging Trends

Regional sustainable finance markets outlooks show contrasts this year. Strong momentum is observed in Asia Pacific (APAC) and Eastern Europe, while policy swings and uncertainty have led to challenges in the Americas and the rest of Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA)

Eurozone Exports Weaken as US Tariffs Bite and Global Demand Softens

The eurozone's trade balance edged up slightly in July, driven mainly by a drop in imports, while exports also declined modestly. Excluding the energy crisis period, this marks one of the smallest trade surpluses in the past decade

Global Car Market: Stable Sales Despite Tariffs and Regional Divergence

It has been a rocky year for the global car industry – and it's not over yet. US new car sales are slowing, and the European market remains sluggish, but strong demand in China and South America means we still expect slightly higher global annual sales. Meanwhile, carmakers are navigating tough competition on multiple fronts

The Rising Ethical Challenges of AI: Balancing Opportunity, Risk, and Regulation

Artificial intelligence offers us a whole host of new opportunities – but with its usage on the rise, concerns surrounding safety also appear to be growing rapidly. An increasing number of incidents is now reinforcing the need for harmonised ethical and regulatory standards

Poland’s Inflation Surprise Opens Door for September Rate Cut, but Fiscal Risks Loom

The decline in headline inflation to 2.8% YoY in August and further easing of core inflation would likely allow policymakers to cut rates by 25bp in September, but highly expansionary fiscal policy is expected to prompt a cautious approach ahead. Rate setters may pause in October and return to the rate cut discussion in November  

ECB Minutes Highlight Balanced Risks but Keep Rate Cut Option Alive for September

The just-released minutes of the ECB’s July meeting show that the central bank entered the summer break with a strong feeling that the job was done and that the bar had been set high for another rate cut. Still, this wait-and-see stance had at least a touch of an easing bias

Italy Struggles to Reignite Growth as Confidence Weakens Across Key Sectors

August confidence indicators paint a picture of economic inertia, with growth momentum still concentrated in the services sector

Political Uncertainty, Fed Independence, and the Steeper Yield Curve Ahead

The thing about the Lisa Cook affair is it's laced with legal grey. We make the simple apolitical assumption, from a market’s perspective, that Ms Cook will be replaced. Tough to undo what's been done, and an extrapolation of these circumstances result in a steeper curve from both ends. The front end does not care. The back end cares a lot (or at least should)

French Political Uncertainty Widens Spreads, but Contagion Remains Contained; US Long-End Pressured by Fed Risks

French politics is injecting uncertainty into eurozone bond markets, but the spread widening remains more confined to French bonds for now. Long-end yields globally have felt supply and fiscal pressures, yet the challenge to central bank independence puts a unique focus on the US curve 

Energy Markets React as US Secondary Tariffs on India Take Effect

Oil prices came under pressure as US secondary tariffs on India come into effect, taking the total levy to 50%

Euro Gains Amid Stable ECB Policy, BoE Inflation Surprises, and Hawkish BoJ

Eurozone economic data for the first half of the year has been distorted by US tariffs.

Markets Explode Higher as Powell’s Dovish Shift Slams Dollar, Lifts Crypto, Gold, and Equities

The Market is going wild from Powell's speech, interpreted as largely dovish! In case you missed it, you can access the text and a review of his live speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on this page:

Germany’s Ifo Index Rises, but Fiscal Stimulus Remains the Key to Recovery

The ongoing improvement in business sentiment reflects the strong belief in the healing nature of fiscal stimulus

FX Markets Focus on Powell’s Speech, Fed Outlook, and Global Central Bank Moves

The dollar is drifting higher ahead of a key speech from Fed Chair Powell today. Driving that has been some slightly better business confidence data, questioning whether the Fed needs to cut in September. We doubt the dollar has to rally too much further. Behind the scenes, it seems that foreign central banks are quietly leaving the US Treasury market

US Bank Reserves: Why They Rose, Why They’re Falling, and Why It’s (Probably) Safe

In September 2019, the system creaked as the Fed had gone too far with bank reserves reduction. We're facing a similar challenge in the coming months as the Treasury replenishes its cash buffer. We identify a range from $2.5tr to $3tr within which bank reserves can settle, likely at the upper end. And if there's an issue, the Fed can always rebuild them

Powell Set to Turn Dovish; Dollar Faces Pressure, EUR/USD Outlook Remains Positive

Earlier in August, we published our monthly FX update. That was centred around the view that the last line of defence for the dollar – a resilient jobs market – had started to capitulate with large payrolls revisions. In this note, we discuss our latest thinking and why we are looking for 1.20+ levels through 2026

Foreign Demand Supports Treasuries While Bunds Emerge as Key Hedge Against Volatility

US Treasuries traded heavy on Monday, on a day of complexities and different cross winds that makes interpretation tough. Bunds remain a good safe asset to hide for any US-driven turmoil, which can help keep yields close to swaps. Whilst we still see Bunds underperform swaps due to supply pressures, the room is more limited since 'Liberation Day' 

US Tariffs Weigh Heavily on European Exports Amid Rising Trade Pressures

On a day when all eyes are once again on the war in Ukraine and with another crucial meeting later today at the White House, just-released trade data serves as a good reminder of the adverse effects of the ongoing trade tensions.

Polish Inflation Slows to 3.1% in July on Energy Price Drop, Paving Way for NBP Rate Cuts

Polish headline inflation has been confirmed at 3.1% YoY in July, from 4.1% YoY in June, as the effect of the partial unfreeze of energy prices in mid-2024 died out. With inflation within the tolerance band of the National Bank of Poland's target (2.5%, +/- 1ppt), the central bank now has room to continue its monetary easing cycle

Euro Strength Returns to ECB’s Radar, but Fed Holds the Keys

We expect a hold by the ECB on Thursday, but there are risks of a modest dovish tilt given tariff uncertainty and the euro’s recent strength. Ultimately, Fed decisions will drive EUR/USD more than the ECB’s, but signs of discontent with levels above 1.20 can cap the euro’s short-term gains. Expect rates to be particularly sensitive to trade comments

Gold Outlook 2025: Consolidation Amid Geopolitical Risks and Central Bank Demand

Since reaching a record high above $3,500/oz in April, the gold rally has stalled, and is need of a fresh catalyst to help push it higher

Dollar Rebounds, Yen Falters, and Commodities Diverge as Tariffs and Tech Take the Spotlight

Yesterday's US inflation data was... mixed. Headline CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, exactly as expected, pushing the annual rate up to 2.7% from 2.4% in the prior month. But core inflation came in softer than anticipated, briefly lifting market sentiment.

Romania’s Harsh Medicine: Tax Hikes and Spending Cuts to Avert Fiscal Meltdown

Romania has launched a bold fiscal overhaul to fix its record deficit by raising taxes and curbing spending. The short-term hit to growth and inflation will be significant, but the plan could also restore stability, unlock EU funds, and rebuild investor trust

Dutch Chemicals Sector Moves from Stagnation to Structural Decline

The outlook for the chemicals sector in the Netherlands remains bleak. American import tariffs have impacted a sizeable portion of production, while structural issues such as global overcapacity and declining competitiveness continue to constrain its growth potential

German Industry: Cyclical Rebound or Just Front-Loading Fallout?

Industrial data from May suggests that there is more to German industry than just US front-loading. It's too early to give the all-clear, but signs of at least a cyclical rebound, albeit from low levels, are increasing

Eurozone Labour Market Stays Tight, But Wage Pressures Begin to Ease

Eurozone unemployment rate edges up in May, but remains at historic low. The unemployment rate increased from 6.2% to 6.3% in May. This increase was mainly driven by a jump in unemployment in Italy, but overall, the labour market remains strong with significant shortages across the eurozone

Hungary’s Labour Market: Positive Data Masks Underlying Weakness

Recent labour market data shows that demographic decline and voluntary exits are key factors to watch out for. Meanwhile, gloomy macroeconomic conditions are leading to redundancies and reduced employee bargaining power, potentially limiting future wage growth

Middle East Conflict Escalates: U.S. Strikes Spark Strategic Uncertainty

US strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran: What it means for macro and markets. While the broader impact of the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities remains uncertain, markets have so far responded with caution. What is clear, however, is that the strikes are likely to heighten economic uncertainty and put upward pressure on oil prices.

iFX EXPO LATAM 2025 Wraps Up Second Successful Edition in Mexico, Cementing Its Status as the Region’s #1 Online Trading Event

iFX EXPO LATAM 2025 has officially concluded its second successful edition in Mexico, reinforcing its commitment to growing within the LATAM region and firmly establishing itself as the largest and most influential online trading and fintech event in Latin America.

FinancialMarkets.media concludes its first-ever digital marketing seminar, fostering innovation and growth in finance and fintech

• FMM Seminar 2025 concluded with 177 registered attendees
• FMM Seminar featured a series of panels via its network of high-level digital media representatives including Bloomberg Media, Forbes Greece & Cyprus, TradingView, FXStreet and more.
• This exclusive B2B event brought together C-level executives, brokers, fintech innovators, and financial marketer

iFX EXPO LATAM is back!

The #1 B2B & B2C online trading expo in the region is returning for a second edition.

Trump Turns to Bonds, Vape Firms Shift Tactics After FDA Crackdown, and DeepSeek Races Ahead with New AI Model

Trump Turns to Bonds, Vape Firms Shift Tactics After FDA Crackdown, and DeepSeek Races Ahead with New AI Model

US Treasuries and Market Sentiment: A Mixed Outlook Amid Fiscal and Policy Shifts

Rates Spark: The glass half empty trade. The drivers of Doge, Bessent and SLR have been added to in the guise of weaker consumer confidence and a ratchet down in expectations for the terminal rate. This market is now considering the possible downsides ahead. Can it last? Well yes for a bit. But we are constrained to the downside for yields, until or unless we seriously contemplate a recession of sorts

iFX EXPO LATAM Returns to Mexico City!

The #1 B2B & B2C online trading expo in LATAM is back for another unmissable edition.