Gold price broke two‑week high
Gold price at the start of the week hovered around the highest level since June 22 after the release of a weaker‑than‑expected U.S. labor market report.
Read also: Gold price will drop by several hundred dollars! Bank cuts latest forecasts. XAU/USD correction getting closer.
The Non-Farm Payrolls report, which was discussed, showed a clear slowdown in employment growth in June, weakening expectations for further Fed rate hikes.
Recall that non‑farm employment rose last month by 57,000, well below market expectations of 110,000.
Disappointment also came from private sector data, where new jobs increased by 49,000 versus projected 110,000.
Revised May data indicated employment growth of about 129,000 in the non‑farm sector and 97,000 in the private sector.
The June unemployment rate fell to 4,2% from 4.3% recorded a month earlier.
According to CME FedWatch estimates, investors rate the probability of a rate hike in October at 45%.
Further monetary policy guidance in the United States is expected to be included in the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 16–17, to be released next Wednesday.
Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, recently emphasized that Fed officials will consistently pursue the central bank’s dual mandate, regardless of political pressure from the White House.
“If people thought this central bank would compromise on an inflation target above 2%, they will be disappointed,” he said.
“We have long been an independent central bank. We will remain so now and you will see no changes in this regard,” he added.
We wrote more about this in the article: Gold price before the next break? XAU/USD has not done this in 13 years. Here’s what forecasts say.
Chart. Market‑priced probability of Fed rate changes at upcoming meetings
Source: CME FedWatch Tool.
Read also: Gold price will drop by several percent. Banks revise forecasts. There is a risk of further XAU/USD correction.
See also: Gold price fell 12%, will there be further discount soon? Expert: “With possible de‑escalation there is a chance to make up losses.”
Gold and silver price on Monday, July 6
Gold spot price on Monday, July 6 is at 4,142 USD per ounce (-0.7%).
Analysts at JP Morgan, according to the latest estimates, expect gold demand to be weaker than anticipated.
Therefore the metal price should reach 4,300 USD per ounce in the third quarter and 4,500 USD per ounce in the fourth quarter.
At the beginning of June economists forecasted gold would rise to 6,000 USD per ounce by the end of the current year.
Chart. Gold spot price (XAU/USD)
Source: Trading Economics.
Silver price reaches 61,9 USD per ounce (-0.7%).
Chart. Silver spot price (XAG/USD)
Source: Trading Economics.
Read also: Gold price unstoppable? Expert: “Gold could just as well reach 7,000 USD or 10,000 USD per ounce.”
See also: 2026 market is preparing a surprise? “Investors should ensure their portfolios are ready for a bullish trend.”
Sources: CNBC, Reuters.
