We also observed a selling advantage in Paris (CAC40: -1.64%), Frankfurt (DAX: -1.56%) and Madrid (IBEX35: -1.55%). Before the sale, the London stock indices (FTSE100: -0.73%), Zurich (SMI: -0.71%) and the continent’s most important index, the STOXX (-1.18%), also did not defend themselves.
Capital did not rotate into bonds, as shown by the rise in their yields: the yield on a 10‑year bond exceeded 3.20%, setting a multi‑year record. The supply wave did not spare Warsaw, which translated into declines in the largest aggregates. The strained relations on the USA–Iran line, which contributed to a sharp rise in oil prices (Brent: +7.22%), did not help.
Interestingly, the rise in commodity prices was accompanied by a decline in inflation expectations, meaning that Poles see the conflict as a short‑term disruption. The biggest loser turned out to be the index of national blue chips WIG20, which closed 1.13% weaker. The broad market index WIG, after a session characterized by a twin run, ended the day 1.06% weaker.
Oil above $100, markets show a discount!
The second line of companies, represented by mWIG40, fell 0.92%, and the representative of the smallest entities, sWIG80, fell only 0.12%.
On Wall Street the most important event was Intel’s report, which raised the forecast for investment spending (CAPEX), indicating an unprecedented rise in demand for computing power.
The picture composed of Alphabet and Intel reports looks very “bullish” for semiconductor companies, which until recently were the most crowded link in the infrastructure chain, and have recently experienced a clear discount. On Thursday the broad market index S&P500 fell 1.21%, and Nasdaq100, which groups the top 100 technology companies, fell 1.87%.
With the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, further price increases were accompanied by oil contracts that again broke the $100 per barrel level, reaching the highest level since May. The price depreciation occurred due to information about a Shia Houthi attack on tankers moving in the Red Sea.
The morning view of Asian markets again brings a pessimistic picture, with strongly discounted aggregates. Memory companies are clearly losing, as illustrated by the KOSPI discount of 4.69%: Samsung loses 6.85%, and SK Hynix 2.80%.
Risk is being thrown away by investors in China, where both the continental Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng are weakening by 1.40%.
One hour before the start of trading in Europe, India also loses: Sensex falls 1.13%, and Nifty 0.90%. After a strong sale in the early minutes of trading, the Japanese Nikkei (-2.82%) is also below the line.
In the morning hours, precious metals are also being sold: gold weakens 0.61%, and silver 0.54%. Key to the development of events remain information flowing from the Ormuz and Bab al‑Mandab straits.
