Combine rebounding investment with continued strength in private spending and you have a recipe for stronger economic growth. October's set of data suggests that GDP growth in the fourth quarter is likely to beat the 3.7% year-on-year rate posted in the third. At the same time, inflation is declining, which paves the way for another rate cut in December
The federal government has unveiled a new agreement to finalise the 2026 budget and outline the main direction for economic policy in the coming years. While these steps will help reduce the public deficit, further action will be necessary to stabilise the debt ratio
The week draws to a close on a positive note after a significant selloff in risk assets as US rate cut bets continued to decline from the Federal Reserve's December meeting.
It could have been a lot worse for EUR/USD this week. A set of FOMC minutes that poured cold water on a December rate cut and a strong headline rise in the US jobs report could have seen 1.1500 taken out again. But instead, investors seemed to have just delayed rather than abandoned pricing for Fed easing. And Europe may still being showing some signs of life
US jobs growth was stronger than expected in September, but unemployment also rose amid workers returning to the labour market and seeking jobs. Given the Fed's recent hawkish shift and the lack of official data scheduled before the 10 December FOMC meeting, it is understandable that the market thinks the next move won't come until early 2026
Bank Indonesia held its policy rate at 4.75% amid inflation pressures and rupiah weakness, but we expect a cut in December to support growth. Risks remain skewed toward delays if currency pressures persist or the Fed postpones easinga
We're not overly concerned about tightness in US repo of late. It does show that the liquidity environment is uneven. It appears that eligible standing repo participants don't need it, as there are minimal asks for it. Frustrating for the Fed, as it sees the effective funds rate creeping higher. T-bill buying from 1 December is far from perfect. But it will do
October inflation was confirmed at 2.8%YoY while core inflation likely moderated to 2.9%YoY from 3.2%YoY in September, driven by softer services prices as businesses face demand constraints. Disinflation is now reaching the services sector, which is a positive sign for monetary policy and gives room for more rate cuts in the coming quarters
China's key activity indicators continued to slow across the board in October as policymakers appear to be delaying further policy support. This year's growth target is likely to require minimal additional support to be reached, but supportive policies will be necessary to achieve long-term goals
Oil prices managed to edge higher yesterday, despite several bearish data releasesa
South Korea’s jobless rate rose in October, but it remains below 3%. The Bank of Korea is expected to keep policy unchanged in November amid concerns about property risk and volatile foreign exchange markets
Real retail sales growth came in weaker than expected, implying stagnation since April. This warrants some caution regarding the consumption outlook. Still, households have relatively strong resources which could support robust spending as the year approaches an end
Third-quarter GDP growth disappointed at 4.0% YoY, dragged down by weak investment and softer government spending, while exports provided temporary support. We downgrade our 2025 growth forecast to 4.7% (from 5.2%) as sentiment weakens and tariff headwinds loom, reinforcing our call for a 25bp central bank rate cut in December
In the Eurozone, ECB’s Schnabel sees money market rates rising as system reserves decline, with banks then turning to the ECB for liquidity. It is part of the plan and could happen in mid-2026, but is more likely to happen later. Meanwhile, US Treasuries are being buffeted by contrasting impulses. It's been quite a week, but we broadly end where we started
Despite good ADP and ISM services data, the USD has corrected lower. With equities re-stabilising, the risks remain of further USD pullbacks after a rally that has exceeded what rate differentials can justify. Today, we see the BoE on hold despite mounting speculation of a pre-Budget cut. Norges Bank is likely to hold too, with low risks of guidance tweaks
Unlike the Fed or the Bank of England, the ECB looks to have more time before excess reserves reach levels where bigger shifts in banks' behaviour will become obvious. Recourse to the ECB facilities remains relatively low and upward pressure on short-term rates is still very gradual
The risk mood has darkened a little this week, with some sizeable corrections emerging in some equity markets. There has not been one catalyst per se, but lofty valuations must be leading to some profit-taking in uncertain conditions. For today, it's all about the US ADP jobs release and what it means for the December Fed meeting. Expect FX to stay defensive
Increased Chinese competition within Europe and in third markets has been a trend that restarted with Covid, and may intensify now as a result of global trade tensions. While stronger Chinese competition can potentially mute eurozone inflation and GDP growth, it is also likely to aggravate problems in key industries
The slew of post-meeting ECB speakers has added little to the policy narrative. The Governing Council is broadly on the same page with the rates view, and the feeling is that some substantial data surprises are now needed to create new division among policymakers.
US Treasury yields look like they want to nudge higher when they can. And why not, as corporate earnings are firm, and hard macro data is being kept under shutdown wraps. New lows in euro rate volatility help spreads on European government bonds (EGBs) tighten further. Given the spread tightness, Bunds look increasingly attractive as a risk hedge
Affordability in the German real estate market remains strained. However, the recent surge in rents and a low homeownership ratio should still support the market
The Bank looks likely to keep rates on hold on 6 November, despite better inflation and wage news. The committee is deeply divided, and we don't expect clear signals on the Bank's next steps. But assuming the Autumn Budget goes as expected, a December rate cut now looks more likely than not
The dollar remains bid as the market continues to question whether the Fed needs to cut rates to 3.00/3.25% after all. Also helping the dollar may be tight money market conditions as the US Treasury restocks its cash balances. In the absence of official data, the focus this week will be on insights into the US job market from private sector releases
CPI inflation moderated below both our expectations and those of the market in October, thanks to a lower core rate, making yet another 25bp rate cut in November highly probable. Our baseline scenario had assumed a pause in monetary easing, but given Poland's ongoing disinflationary trend, we're bracing for another 25bp rate cut next week
Higher-than-expected Japanese inflation in October, together with improvements in production and retail sales, suggests growth is bottoming out toward quarter-end, while price pressures continue to intensify. The Bank of Japan may consider an earlier rate increase
South Korean growth beat expectations amid robust domestic demand, boosted by cash handouts and strong asset markets. Yet a slowdown is expected in the fourth quarter as government support wanes and export challenges abound
Upside inflation risks are receding while worries about the jobs market are mounting. The Federal Reserve is expected to respond with another 25bp interest rate cut on Wednesday, and could also bring QT to a conclusion
Both food and services inflation are undershooting the Bank of England's forecasts, and together with softer wage growth, that brings another 2025 rate cut firmly back into play. Everything now depends on the details of the November Autumn Budget
Concerns about the US credit market have eased further since the weekend, prompting a hawkish repricing in the Fed curve and justifying a stronger dollar. EUR/USD may slip all the way to 1.160 in the next few days, but it may require a hot US CPI print to extend the drop. Elsewhere, Japan’s new PM Takaichi was confirmed by parliament this morning
Looking for lower market rates is the simplest interpretation of the wider backdrop. However, an upward creep in US inflation and a slow firming of Eurozone purchasing managers’ indexes argue against. Something would need to break for this narrative to change
As Jamie Dimon warned, there may be more ‘cockroaches’ (i.e. distressed lenders) out there after two US regional banks reported credit issues last week. Markets will be looking very closely for evidence of that, and the dollar continues to face substantial downside risks. Later this week, US CPI should not come in hot enough to derail Fed easing plans
A sudden surge in scrutiny of US regional banks is hitting equities and the dollar, which, incidentally, faces the negative drag of a dovish Fed repricing, some hopes for a Ukraine truce, falling oil prices, and ongoing US-China trade tensions. It’s hard to pick a bottom in the ongoing USD sell-off, which may well run a bit further from her
Price pressures remained at a constant 9.9% in September, with seasonal food items offering mild relief. Services inflation continues to show resilience, and wage growth dipping below 5.0% adds further drag on demand. Our year-end projections remain 9.6% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026
We are increasingly confident that around €600bn of assets will transition on 1 January 2026, bringing about significant flows in longer-dated bonds and swaps. Markets are closely watching, with 10s30s steepening on headlines. Credit should benefit from the transition, with most flow funds only coming in in after 1 Januarya
The US Dollar has been enjoying a renaissance of sorts this week with gains largely down to US data not being bad at all.
Looking at the data this week, the sales rate for US new homes spiked back to levels last seen in early 2022.
Sentiment in Dutch commercial services and retail cooled in September, according to fresh data from the European Commission. While the mood isn’t gloomy, it does echo our view that growth remains stuck below potential – for now
Euro rate markets seem to react very little to downside data surprises and geopolitical headlines, which does raise concerns over complacency. Nonetheless, this trend may persist for now as attention shifts to upcoming key calendar events, particularly US data releases
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 22
Markets started the week on the back foot today, but shook off early concerns as US tech shares continued their impressive rise.
This was fueled by a promise from Nvidia to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, boosting excitement around artificial intelligence.
US Equities keep up their positive performance with each of them finishing at or close to their highs, with the Tech-heavy Nasdaq taking the lead yet again.
With the most recent Federal Reserve cut and positive acquisition news as seen in yesterday's US Index piece, sentiment is at its highs again.
The week kicks off on a mixed note. Last week's Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut gave markets a boost, but news that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will begin reducing its ETF holdings unsettled global risk sentiment on Friday.
Despite political uncertainty, business sentiment in France was steady in September. However, deeper cracks are emerging
The dollar is drifting lower ahead of tomorrow evening's FOMC meeting. Even the market's favourite high-yield currency play, the Turkish lira, got a lift following news of a delay in a political event risk. Today's focus will be on US retail sales and perhaps Canadian CPI as well, ahead of expected rate cuts in the US and Canada tomorrow
Strong global demand for AI boosted Korean exports in August while clearer signs of negative impact of US tariffs emerged. Looking forward, fiscal policy is likely to support growth in 2026, mitigating weak external demand and tariff shocks
MKT INTEL VIEWS: NVDA delivered a solid print (rev +56%y/y) but the stock is down as this was the smallest % increase in 2 years and results were a bit light of expectations (see our spec sales take here). The stock market reaction across Asia Tech seems to suggest the AI trade remains intact, although reports that China chipmakers are aiming to triple AI chip output next year also helped (within SHCOMP, Tech is the only sector in the green this morning as 85% of stocks are lower).
Eurozone optimism has pushed the German two-year yield to the brink of pre-'Liberation Day' levels. Just shy of 2%, the balance of risk is towards near-term lower yields again. US rates are quick to fade the dovish move from last Friday, and we think the back end of the curve will want to test higher still
Forex Markets are going bonkers since Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole conference.
The US Dollar is getting sold off aggressively as the Market interpreted dovish signs for a cut in the September, even in a relatively nuanced speech – Markets didn't need much!
A full reversal of previous US front-loading effects has pushed the German economy back into recessionary territory, and it looks increasingly unlikely that any substantial recovery will materialise before 2026
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25% this week, bringing the rate to 3%. This would mark a total reduction of 2.5% during the current cycle. Markets are also predicting another cut later this year or early next year, possibly lowering the rate to 2.75% or even 2.5%.
The FOMC minutes seem to be from a different time, pre the payrolls revisions; but can still embolden Powell on Friday. Gilt yields came down on the day of hotter CPI numbers suggesting a possible peak. Having said that, with Autumn Budget discussions kicking off, volatility is likely to remain. Meanwhile, the path for the 10y euro swap rate is still up
All eyes were on Washington yesterday, where Zelensky finally hit it off with the US President, raising hopes that peace could be on the horizon. The next step is to bring Putin to the negotiating table and find a durable solution. Peace has rarely felt so close.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to cut rates by 25bp to 3.0% on 20 August. We expect to see indications that one final cut will follow, in line with market expectations and our own call. We retain a constructive view on NZD/USD, primarily on the back of expected USD weakness as the Fed restarts cutting
Yesterday's CPI report fueled even more fire to the ongoing relentless rally in US Equities. Up a respective 46% and 34% from their Liberation Day lows, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 keep beating expectations.
Since the recent one-week slide of -5.8% seen on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) from 24 July 2025 high to 1 August 2025 low, its price actions have been choppy as markets grappled with US tariffs news flow and the possibility of an imminent US Federal Reserve dovish pivot in September.
Inflation in the Netherlands continued its downward trajectory in July, dropping to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.8% in June. A sustained return to the 2% target is not in sight yet, however, as service inflation remains quite stubborn
The US Dollar is starting the week on a steadier footing after lagging through much of last week, weighed down by a string of underwhelming US data releases.
Moment of clarity
– Risk assets rallied in July as trade uncertainty eased, despite a continued rise in the effective tariff rate.
– With policy uncertainty fading, market attention is shifting to economic data. Friday’s employment report underscores that the economic consequences of recent policy shifts are only now becoming visible.
European equity markets gained recently on hopes that Donald Trump might broker a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. However, Putin has not yet agreed to dialogue with Kyiv. Regardless, US crude is below a key support level (and falling) this morning on rising hope of progress – a move that could rapidly reverse as Russia looks much less enthusiastic to end the Ukrainian war then Trump is.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to cut its cash rate by 25bps to 3.6%. Meanwhile, markets await data on Chinese inflation, industrial production and retail sales, South Korean unemployment, and Japanese GDP
The narrative had been confusing since last Friday's Non-Farm payrolls miss: All indices rallied above their pre-NFP levels in what seemed to be a total discounting of that new information, allowing participants to suppose that the repricing of a September cut (currently 91.5% priced in for 25 bps) would overtake the more pessimistic outlooks for Economy.
Disappointing industrial production data for June and a downward revision for May suggest that instead of staging a cyclical rebound German industry remains stuck
'Tariff' may be the most beautiful word in Donald Trump's dictionary. And while tariffs will continue to dominate headlines for the rest of the year, let me introduce my economic term of the summer: Power Play
GS Basics - Moving On. ISM Services. Systematic Length FICC and Equities | 5 August 2025 | 6:18AM UTC Overnight, Japan futures were unchanged. The JGB auction was a bit underwhelming, but fixed income remains well-supported, likely a reflection of last week’s softer U.S. data.
Log in to today's North American session recap for August 1, 2025.
All eyes were on the Non-Farm Payrolls number, with its release sending markets in all-around chaos.
We are pleased to announce that Just2Trade has been honored with the prestigious Best MT5 Broker award in 2025. This award is a testament to excellence in offering multi-asset trading under J2T brand and the continuous development of a robust, user-friendly trading infrastructure based on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
The unemployment rate remained stable at 6.2% in May, with the number of unemployed people trending down by 62,000 people. Even though economic growth slowed again in the second quarter and uncertainty remained high, the labour market continued to show resilience
With a reversal of the positive frontloading effects, the German economy fell back into recessionary territory in the second quarter. The return to growth and a strong economy remains a long and complicated project
Consensus expects zero GDP growth from the eurozone in the second quarter, but the outlook remains positive, supporting our bearish take on rates. The Fed will most likely hold today, which could intensify Trump's campaign against Powell. This would feed the bearish narrative on longer-dated USTs. We still see the Fed cutting by the end of this year
We expect another leg lower in EUR/USD today, driven by an above-consensus 3.3% quarterly annualised US GDP, which should come in stark contrast with stagnant eurozone numbers. After that, we expect a broadly unchanged stance by an FOMC focused on defending its independence. In Canada, we could hear a slight dovish tilt in line with trade uncertainty
The dollar traded lower last week as market participants became increasingly jittery ahead of Friday’s looming tariffs deadline
As expected, yesterday brought no cut from the ECB, but the press conference did leave us with a hawkish aftertaste. After a series of decent PMIs, the ongoing trade tensions are the only remaining hurdle for rates to test higher. A trade deal would enable the 10Y euro swap rate to push for levels closer to 3%
We expect the Bank of Canada to maintain interest rates at 2.75% on 30 July, remaining cautious amid trade uncertainty. But one or two additional cuts later in the year remain quite likely, and we think market pricing is too hawkish. We continue to expect some pressure on the Canadian dollar on the back of worsening domestic drivers
The Stoxx Europe 600 index is down 12% since the close on 2 April, prior to the announcements of US tariffs and subsequent retaliatory measures. We update our estimated net income sensitivity to market declines, as originally set out in our 2025 outlook: Quid games (published 6 January 2025).
Markets higher as we bounced from the aggressive levels that we marked Monday’s open. Overnight Japan nearly +6% (valuations had approached covid lows) and China higher led by support from a swath of corporate buybacks announced + what would appear to be national team support.
U.S. trading partners threatened to ratchet up a trade war with the United States as President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs ignited fears of steep price hikes in the world's largest consumer market.
A key U.S. employment report could provide more clarity into how the U.S. labor market fared as President Donald Trump's tariffs threaten to disrupt businesses. The nonfarm payrolls data is forecast to show the economy added 135,000 jobs in March, compared to 151,000 jobs in February.
The last 24 hours have been truly historic for markets, as the impact of the US reciprocal tariffs cascaded across different asset classes, with no sign of letting up overnight. We’ll dive into more depth shortly, but just to run through some of the moves, yesterday saw the S&P 500 fall -4.84%, marking its biggest daily decline since June 2020, with futures down another -0.74% this morning.
This week, we hosted our 20th annual Cleveland Clinic event highlighted by meaningful physician discussions on trends in cardio, diabetes/obesity, myeloma, autoimmune, and respiratory diseases.
We estimate there have been 268 preannouncements year-to-date and the average stock has moved +/-6.3% on the two days around these events. This year, stocks made positive moves following these events roughly 50% of the time.
Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said that the planemaker is focused on improving safety and not pressuring workers to speed up production after a 2024 mid- air 737 MAX 9 emergency. "I'm not pressuring the team to go fast.
U.S. President Donald Trump is due to appear shortly at the White House Rose Garden for a "Liberation Day" ceremony where he is expected to announce sweeping tariffs that could escalate a trade war and upend the global economy. Trump has kept the world guessing ahead of the 4 p.m. ET event about the details of the new tariffs, which are expected to prompt countermeasures from trading partners.
Stocks closed higher after a choppy trading session, falling early and then rebounding as investors made last- minute bets to position themselves ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff announcements due later in the day.
Stocks ended higher ahead of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement. Treasury yields rose following the private payrolls and manufacturing data. The dollar fell against major currencies, while gold climbed on safe-haven demand. Oil prices edged higher.
The Nikkei Index can be estimated using nominal GDP, net domestic fund demand (corporate savings rate + fiscal balance), Abenomics dummy and Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. For the current Q225, if we place nominal GDP at around JPY624trn and net domestic fund demand at +1.3%, and assume that global uncertainty continues, the macro fair value would be around JPY34,800, roughly in line with the prevailing Nikkei index
Portfolio concentration refers to the extent to which a portfolio is invested in a limited number of assets, sectors, markets, or asset classes. While higher concentration typically increases portfolio risk, it does not necessarily lead to higher returns; in fact, returns are often lower.
Wall Street ended sharply lower, dragged down by losses in Nvidia and Tesla as investors awaited information about long-promised U.S. tariffs on automotive imports. Shares of Tesla fell 5.58% and General Motors ended 3.14% lower. "Markets hate the tariff uncertainty, especially when it pertains to autos. Autos are ground zero for the negative economic impacts of tariffs," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group.
Many investors went into 2025 assuming Donald Trump would use tariffs as a negotiating tool, but this belief has been shaken in recent weeks, generating significant market angst. But Trump’s fiscal strategy may yet lead to a benign outcome for the global economy.
Airbus and Boeing are preparing the aerospace industry for sharp increases in output of the next generation of workhorse jets to some 100 a month each, as they explore lighter plastic materials and robotic assembly, industry sources said.
Tesla shares surged after this year's steep decline following reports the Trump administration is likely to exclude a set of sector-specific tariffs while applying reciprocal levies on April 2. Traders also took advantage of the near 40% decline in the stock so far this year to buy into the EV maker.
Stocks closed sharply higher and Treasury yields climbed after reports that President Donald Trump's tariff plan may use a more targeted approach than previously thought, boosting risk appetite. The dollar strengthened as U.S. business activity picked up in March, pushing gold lower. Oil prices were up on Venezuela oil and gas tariffs.
The Dow and the S&P 500 ended nearly unchanged, recovering from earlier lows following President Donald Trump’s comments on tariff reprieve. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose but traded in a tight range on tariff and economic concerns. The dollar gained putting pressure on gold prices. Oil edged up as fresh Iran sanctions and latest output plan from the OPEC+ raised supply concerns.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company was well placed to navigate a shift in the artificial intelligence industry, in which businesses are moving from training AI models to getting detailed answers from them.
Stocks ended sharply down as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. Treasury yields fell on strong demand for 20-year bond auction. The dollar weakened further, while gold hit a new record high. Oil prices eased as Ukraine peace talks offset Mideast instability worries.
SOX -1.6%. NVDA -3.4% closed lower despite unveiling its plans for more powerful chips and partnerships as it failed to excite investors. Jensen keynote was a two-hour emphasized the increasing computational demands of "agentic AI," autonomous AI agents, stating that these demands are significantly higher than previously anticipated (100x more than last year).
In our view, the single most important secular trend in the options market is the growth of ETFs/MutualFunds that systematically trade options. Arun Prakash has done some great work cataloging each strategy to paint a picture of the AUM in specific flows (calls/puts, expirations, moneyness) to help investors understand the growth of these strategies.
A strong finish to last week by US equities helped buoy investor sentiment at the start of this week in Asia. Upside surprises in China’s cyclical data also helped boost investor sentiment. Holding back sentiment, however, were US Treasury Scott Bessent suggesting the recent US equity market rout was a healthy correction and weak Chinese house prices data showing the sector was still in a slump.
We anticipate further volatility amid tariff concerns, but we continue to expect gains for the S&P 500 and see the index reaching 6,600 by year-end. We believe a solid US economy, healthy corporate earnings growth, and further advancements in AI should support the rally. We also see opportunities in Asian ex-Japan equities, including those in Taiwan and India. In Europe, we like structured strategies on German equities.