The case began with funding for a bakery sector entity. The funds came from the European Regional Development Fund and the national budget, under the Innovative Economy Operational Programme. In total, the Polish Enterprise Development Agency was to be brought to an unfavorable asset disposition of nearly 33 million PLN.

According to the evidence, the support application contained unreliable information about the value of planned machines and equipment. The mechanism was not based on a single false document, but was intended to operate more broadly, i.e. staged bidding procedures, inflated prices, related companies and invoices that did not reflect actual transactions. On paper everything looked like an investment, in practice every inflated cost increased the financing amount, and thus also the potential loss on the side of public institutions.

Paper will accept everything, the system does not necessarily

CBA determined that entrepreneurs had to issue and use 680 unreliable invoices with a total value of over 145 million PLN. Some documents contained amounts inconsistent with the actual transaction value, which was intended to result in about 10 million PLN of undue VAT refunds at the expense of the Treasury. The scheme did not end there. Investigators also point to money laundering using suppliers and machine manufacturers. This is not a single mistake, but a network of flows, documents and entities that was meant to give criminal funds the appearance of legal origin.

105 volumes of records and one test for the state

The investigation lasted years. From 2016 to 2023 it was conducted by the Gdańsk Provincial Police Headquarters, and then the Gdańsk CBA delegation took over the case. Officers gathered 105 volumes of main records, 32 attachments and over 150 pages of analysis. They interviewed 210 witnesses, carried out 45 procedural executions in nine voivodeships and obtained material with legal assistance from Italy, Switzerland, France and Slovakia.

On 24 July the prosecutor signed the indictment covering 10 people. Charges include, among others, fraud involving significant assets, falsification of truth, use of unreliable invoices and money laundering. Investigators also seized the suspects’ assets worth nearly 43 million PLN. Now the burden of the case moves from analytical desks to the courtroom. And that is where it will become clear whether the complex system of documents, invoices and connections will withstand the evidentiary test.

On July 21 the Supreme Court dismissed the appeal of the University Hospital in Kraków. The next day the Kraków Court of Appeal sided with the nurses of the Provincial Combined Hospital in Kielce, even though the district court had previously dismissed their lawsuit.

This is not an exception. Favorable rulings had already been made in other hospitals, including Tarnów, Jastrzębie-Zdrój, Suchej Beskidzkiej and Wodzisław Śląski. The signal is clear, the dispute no longer concerns only the interpretation of the pay table. It has become a real financial risk.

Attorney Teresa Kaczyńska-Kochaniec represents about 800 nurses and midwives from several facilities, as the Rynek Zdrowia service reports. Individual claims exceed 100,000 zlotys. When there are hundreds of such lawsuits, the amounts grow faster than hospital reserves.

One table, three groups and thousands of lawsuits

The source of the conflict lies in the amendment of the 2022 Act on minimum wages in health protection. The provisions assigned nurses and midwives to three pay groups depending on the qualifications required for the position. The problem began when some employees with a master's degree and specialization were not placed in group 2. They received less, so they went to court.

Claims are also filed by nurses from groups 5 and 6, who earn about 2,500–3,000 zlotys less than those in group 2 for the same work.

Another trigger point is qualifications obtained after the law came into force. When the hospital does not recognize them, the employee loses not only the current raise. The value of the claim also rises month by month, so each subsequent payment increases the dispute amount.

Millions in reserves, billions in debt

Polish hospitals have almost 40 billion zlotys in debt, including over 5 billion zlotys in due obligations. Meanwhile, the hospital in Kielce, where almost half of 1,200 nurses remain in a wage dispute, created a reserve of 23 million zlotys for staff lawsuits. Lawsuits are no longer a marginal problem for HR departments. They are incorporated into financial plans.

After the adjustment from July 1, 2026, the minimum gross wage is

• 11,485.59 zlotys in group 2,
•  9,081.63 zlotys in group 5, 
• 8,369.35 zlotys in group 6. 

The differences remain significant, and each subsequent favorable ruling can strengthen the determination of future employees.

Not all hospitals voluntarily pay even after a final decision. Then a bailiff steps in, and the bill grows again. Directors may still treat these cases as distant risk or calculate them today before the court does.

Over the weekend the USA suspended airstrikes on the enemy. This is good news for the world, but the lack of explanation for the de-escalation decision or future moves raises further questions about the conflict. Moreover, media reports indicate that the Islamic Republic has also frozen retaliatory attacks. Additionally, it is negotiating with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The above means that markets have received another TACO and war de-escalation.

Trump’s withdrawal from recent threats against the opponent caused a sharp discount in energy commodities. Noticeable declines are seen, among others, in crude oil. The American version on Monday afternoon hovered around 83 USD, and the London BRENT was quoted at 85 USD. In both cases this is a seven-dollar discount compared to Friday’s session close.

Calm forex

De-escalation reports had a smaller impact on the currency market. Reducing risk usually involves capital outflow from safe havens, such as the US dollar or Swiss franc on forex. At the same time, currencies of developing economies gain. And indeed, in Monday’s morning we observed an increase in the main world currency pair, but the scale of the move was moderate.

The EUR/USD rate was slightly above 1.14 USD (Friday ended at 1.137 USD). The euro’s strengthening on the discussed chart was therefore not as spectacular as the dollar‑level moves in oil. Moreover, during today’s session the Swiss franc remains strong.

This is not a comfortable environment for the zloty, which cannot take advantage of the de‑escalation narrative and is losing from the morning. The EUR/PLN rate at 13:00 returns to 4.32 PLN, USD/PLN rises above 3.79 PLN, and CHF/PLN again surpasses 4.65 PLN.

The dollar has power

A moderate outflow of capital from the dollar indicates investors positioning for macroeconomic releases that we will learn about in the second part of the week.

On Wednesday evening the July FOMC decision on interest rates will be announced. Forecasts suggest keeping the cost of money in the 3.5‑3.75% range, but year‑end expectations raise the possibility of a hike of even 50 basis points. This fact keeps the offshore currency strong and effectively dampens its today’s losses.

Besides the decision itself, the Fed chair’s remarks during the press conference will be equally important. Any hawkish mention could lead to a strengthening of the “green” and a lasting break of the 1.14 USD support on the popular “edku”.

The next day we will learn about the report on American spending (PCE inflation, core PCE) or US GDP. In addition to US data, important information from other economies will be published on Thursday and Friday.

These include the Bank of England and Bank of Japan decisions on the cost of money, as well as preliminary July inflation data from Poland and euro‑zone countries.

Nevertheless, the market is reacting to facts and "inflated" oil prices have taken a strong discount. This has provided pretexts for a pullback in risky assets and a retreat of the dollar. Its declines are not that significant – currently the strongest among the G‑10 are the Scandinavian crowns with returns not exceeding 0.35%.

Investors quickly shifted from TACO to the narrative around the FED in the context of the July 28‑29 meeting.

On the upcoming Wednesday we will not see a rate hike, but the fact that the market still offers over 30% chances of tightening may cause the FED to likely submit such a proposal for a vote and a few members of the FED to support it – if Warsh mentioned it during a press conference it would have a "thunderous" effect for the dollar and other assets, as it would be a very clear signal that in September such a hike will most likely be approved.

As a result, it should not be surprising that the dollar quickly recovers today's losses and by the end of the week we could be significantly higher than we were last Friday.

EURUSD – above 1.14 will not last long...

On the TACO wave the dollar lost, and EURUSD breached the 1.14 barrier it broke last week.

Prices reached 1.1417, where the upward trend line ran and reversed by falling below 1.14. Is this a classic retracement pattern, suggesting declines in the coming days?

Such a scenario seems to be suggested by fundamentals – the "hawkish" FED argument – although daily indicators would likely favor mild declines in EURUSD.

Either way, testing the June low at 1.1324 remains a fairly likely scenario for this week.

Daily EURUSD chart

The German Ifo index fell in July slightly better than forecast, rising to 86.6 points, but this does not change the scenario outlined above.

The takeover that never happened. Why did Tokyo pull back?

The vision of merging an Asia tech‑logistics behemoth with the homegrown leader of convenience digital trade drove the imagination of market players. The charm, however, faded faster than a hot dog heats up in Żabka.

The Japanese conglomerate Seven & i Holdings Co. issued a cool, laconic statement. The company officially announced the end of talks about a potential investment in Żabka Group. The reason for this decision is as old as capitalism itself: shareholder priorities and hard financial terms.

The Japanese failed to negotiate a selling price that, according to them, would provide satisfactory profitability. When private investment capital enters the negotiation table, big sentiments and visionary plans quickly succumb to the harsh, almost brutal mathematics of USD valuation.

See also: Will Żabka shares heat up the WSE? Polish giant wants to become the “European 7‑Eleven”

Valuation from the cosmos and a cold shower on the WSE floor

Market experts are not surprised by such a turn of events. Dariusz Nawrot, analyst at Noble Securities, plainly points out that the main brake turned out to be overly high price expectations from the sellers. Before the first hints of a potential appetite from the Japanese, Żabka’s share price hovered around 27 PLN.

The speculative impulse briefly lifted the valuation (even to 33 PLN), but now market gravity will not be merciful to holders of this company’s shares.

On Monday, July 27, the price of Żabka shares fell by 8,89% to 28,39 PLN.

Analysts predict an immediate return of the price to previous levels, and in the coming weeks the sell‑off on the Warsaw floor may accelerate even more. On the horizon looms a massive supply‑side Damocles sword.

In May 2026, the 180‑day lock‑up period for CVC funds and PG Investment Company, which together hold 47,6% of the share package, expired. Since the funds did not sell their stakes to the strategic Asian investor, accelerated demand book construction (ABB) will likely enter the game.

Financial investors clearly remember last November when CVC and PG Investment Company unreservedly shed 10% of Żabka shares at a price of 21.50 PLN each. If this scenario repeats, the market chart will become exceptionally red in the near future.

Chart. Żabka Group share price

Source: TradingView.

See also: Will Żabka shares disappear from the WSE? The company’s fate lies in the hands of the Japanese giant

Technological play on the Old Continent’s target

It’s worth remembering what kind of player we have in the retail trade market. Żabka Group, which debuted on the WSE in October 2024, is long no longer just traditional neighborhood shops.

It is a comprehensive, modern retail ecosystem: from the classic convenience franchise format, through dynamic expansion in Romania under the Froo brand, to autonomous Żabka Nano outlets and advanced AI‑based data analytics.

And it is this technological component that keeps the entire Europe on the Asian giant’s radar. Seven & i Holdings clearly emphasizes in its statement that the failure of talks in Poland absolutely does not mean a retreat from the Old Continent.

The Japanese company intends to consistently implement its global “7‑Eleven Transformation” strategy and continue scanning the European market for attractive opportunities that have real potential to create lasting value for shareholders.

See also: CD Projekt shares before the breakthrough? The WSE waits for the Witcher 3 DLC. Expert points to potential dates

Source: StockWatch.

Last week – counting from the previous week’s close to Friday’s close – saw a $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil. This morning, after the weekend opening, prices returned to levels as if the previous week had not happened. What caused oil to drop so much? As odd as it sounds, the answer “nothing” is a good clue. The key was the lack of escalation of actions.

It was enough to pause offensive actions to give diplomats a chance. Interestingly, this announcement is, of course, backed by pressure on Iran and further threats in case the escalation fails. It’s not entirely clear what else the U.S. can do. However, it is known what it theoretically cannot do if the Senate does not pass a new funding package for this military operation. With improving sentiment in the oil market, capital is also flowing into developing countries – including Poland. The euro is approaching 4.31 PLN for the first time in over two weeks.

Economic Indicators

On Friday we saw the results of economic indicators in major economies. From our point of view, the eurozone and the United Kingdom were the most interesting. In both cases, the industrial and services indices clearly exceeded expectations. Moreover, both clearly exceeded the 50-point level, which symbolically separates positive from negative responses.

Across the Atlantic, the industrial index performed worse than forecasted, while services performed much better. However, we must consider that even though industry showed a lower result than expected, optimism in the U.S. remains clearly higher than on the old continent.

Waiting for the Fed

On Wednesday the Federal Open Market Committee will decide on interest rates. The chances of a hike have recently risen and currently exceed 30%. Most analysts, however, believe rates will only rise in September. Interestingly, many predict that by December we may see a second hike. How does this affect the currency market?

The more investors believe in rising rates, the better for the dollar. On the other hand, potential calm in the Middle East works against the U.S. currency, which we experienced this morning.

Of course, it must be remembered that a dollar strengthened by Fed decisions will absorb capital from emerging markets – including Poland – which will negatively affect the zloty.

Today’s macroeconomic calendar worth noting includes:

14:30 – USA – durable goods orders.

According to CNN, despite the slowdown of armed actions between the United States and Iran, which led to multi‑percent drops in oil prices, movement in the Strait of Hormuz remains limited.

According to shipping data from last weekend, the route was traversed by fewer than 10 cargo ships.

By comparison, before the outbreak of war in the Middle East this number fluctuated around 100. 

“Oil traders are doubly cautious due to the threat of attacks on Saudi tankers by Iran‑backed rebel Houthi forces in the Bab el‑Mandeb strait at the mouth of the Red Sea,” CNN reports.

At the same time, tensions are rising between Tehran and Kyiv after a Ukrainian drone struck a floating unit in the Caspian Sea.

The attack injured three crew members, and one sailor died aboard the ship.

Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, stating that the event “cannot remain unanswered.”

Analysts from ING Think point out that the above events directly affect not only the commodity market but also currency rates.

“The EUR/USD rate rebounded above 1,140 due to today’s sharp drop in oil prices. Nevertheless, this move seems slightly too optimistic, given the lack of a clear path to de‑escalation,” they said.

“Any further military attacks could quickly bring Brent oil back to 100 USD per barrel and the EUR/USD rate below 1.1380. A potential pre‑FOMC dollar purchase could also pressure this rate on Wednesday,” they added.

Read also: Dollar’s long journey to 4 PLN? Expert issued forecasts for USD/PLN and EUR/USD. “The dollar could gain”

See also: Will the dollar surprise again? Expert issued a forecast for USD/PLN and EUR/USD. “It’s hard for me to believe there will be no more fires”

Euro rate on Monday, July 27

The euro to zloty rate on Monday, July 27 is at 4,31 PLN.

In the ING Think report we read that euro prices remain sensitive to the ongoing high gas prices.

“This is another reason why we maintain caution regarding the EUR/USD rate, unless tensions ease quickly. Even after today’s drop, the TTF price is 58 EUR per kWh, over 30% above July‑start levels and approaching March peaks,” the report said.

“While Brent oil is far from its peaks, gas prices are at their level. Given the importance of gas for energy imports in the euro zone, euro trading conditions, the statistically most important medium‑term factor affecting EUR valuation, also oscillate near March lows and at levels comparable to 2023,” added.

Chart. Euro to zloty rate (EUR/PLN)

Source: Trading Economics.

The euro to dollar rate reaches 1,13 USD. 

Chart. Euro to dollar rate (EUR/USD)

Source: Trading Economics.

Read also: Dollar before a breakout? Expert: “Capital will flow back to USD”

See also: Dollar before a “nervous and dynamic” move, euro waiting for a drop? Expert issued a forecast for USD/PLN and EUR/USD

Sources: CNN, ING Think.

Although the current situation may not lead to a breakthrough but merely freeze the conflict, oil prices are falling by as much as 5%, and the key European gas is losing up to 7% in value, prompting the EURUSD pair to rebound sharply. What can we expect in the foreign exchange market in the coming days?

Sharp declines in oil and gas prices

In response to the lack of attacks from the U.S., Iran declared a restraint from retaliatory actions and began talks with Oman representatives about regulating shipping in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. The prospect of a ceasefire led to a strong correction in oil prices. Brent oil on the September contract fell to $90 per barrel, although last week it briefly surpassed $100 per barrel.

This development reduced immediate concerns about a renewed inflationary pressure from the energy commodity market, which translated into a weakening of the U.S. dollar across the broad market.

The EURUSD pair started the day with gains above 1.14, but by 10:00 it had returned above this key level, reflecting the fragility of the current unofficial ceasefire and the ongoing high risk in the region.

Market optimism on fragile foundations

The current improvement in sentiment seems inadequate compared to what is actually happening in the Middle East. President Trump himself noted that continued attacks at the previous level would not lead to any breakthrough. Secondly, Houthi rebels from Yemen attacked Saudi Aramco oil infrastructure over the weekend and threaten further attacks on tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Although their destructive power is far less than Iran’s, it still prevents ships from passing through this vital chokepoint.

A lasting agreement between the U.S. and Iran is still far off, and the Houthi are not 100% controlled by Iran. Moreover, fully restoring oil and gas transport from the Persian Gulf countries now seems even more distant than ever. Another missile attack from either side could trigger a renewed rise in oil and gas prices.

The U.S. administration and UN representatives unequivocally emphasize that President Donald Trump has “all options on the table,” and the current pause in strikes is only meant to buy time for negotiations.

Fed decision and a marathon of results in focus

Besides Middle East news, a key reference point for global investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday decision on interest rates. Despite Monday’s dollar weakness, the market still prices the probability at about 1 in 3 (roughly 33%) that the Fed may decide to raise rates during the Wednesday meeting, while the full move is already priced for September. Some commentators expect a particularly hawkish stance from Kevin Warsh and potential votes for a rate hike now. Combined with European inflation data releases and a flurry of earnings from U.S. tech giants (including Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft), the coming days point to potentially heightened volatility in financial markets. If Fed signals prove sufficiently hawkish and hopes for a lasting truce with Iran crumble, the U.S. currency could quickly regain favor among investors seeking a safe haven.

Just minutes before 11:00, the dollar trades at 3.7830 PLN, the euro at 4.3127 PLN, the pound at 5.0447 PLN, and the franc at 4.6410 PLN.

Interest in doctors’ accounts rose after the media‑publicised case of the Southern Hospital. One doctor was supposed to earn PLN 1.6 million there in a year, partly by inflating invoices. “Gazeta Wyborcza” therefore checked how the National Tax Administration (KAS) monitors private practices and doctors working on B2B contracts.

The scale turned out to be significant. Over a year and a half, KAS took action against 23,000 medical entities. Not every verification meant an immediate formal audit. The tax administration treats doctors running a business the same as other entrepreneurs; when a justified suspicion of tax law violations arises, officials begin investigative procedures.

Result? Nearly PLN 109 million of disputed accounts. The average amount of irregularity was about PLN 4.7 thousand. This shows that risk does not only concern spectacular invoices amounting to hundreds of thousands of zlotys. Sometimes the problem starts with a small mistake that repeats over subsequent months.

The audit starts where explanations end

When documents and explanations did not dispel doubts, KAS initiated a tax audit. 82 such proceedings were carried out.

Officials disputed accounts totaling over PLN 9.4 million in them.

The list of shortcomings leaves little room for chance. Auditors detected understated or incorrectly reported taxable bases, unpaid taxes and advances, declarations with formal deficiencies, missing required declarations, and delays in settling obligations. Each of these errors may look like a minor oversight. Together, however, they create a financial burden measured in millions.

Running a medical practice also means running a business. The patient sees the diagnosis, procedure, and bill. The treasury sees the taxable base, payment deadline, and the consistency of the declaration with the actually performed service.

One word on the invoice can change the tax

Aesthetic medicine particularly attracts the tax office. A recurring abuse is presenting procedures that improve appearance as medical services.

Procedures performed solely for aesthetic purposes are taxable. Exemptions cover services whose purpose is to protect or improve health. Therefore, the accounting should not be decided by the marketing name of the procedure or how it is presented to the client, but by its actual purpose.

It is here that the temptation to misclassify a service to change its tax consequences arises. The problem is that the tax office increasingly checks what really lies behind the description on the invoice.

A cat in a bag with an unspecified expiry date

The consumer, pulling tens of thousands of zlotys from their pocket (or often taking on credit), expects concrete answers: exactly what they are buying and when the equipment will start saving money. Meanwhile Columbus Energy’s practices, according to the regulator, fell far short of the market standard of reliability.

Primarily, the company did not provide precise completion dates in contracts. Instead of a specific installation date, customers received only vague assurances that the date would be set later via phone or email. As one would predict, the declared maximum start dates for work were repeatedly exceeded, and impatient customers were met with a call center.

Moreover, the documents provided before signing the contract lacked basic technical data of the devices. Consumers entered the transaction almost in the dark, without a chance to reliably compare the set’s parameters with competitors’ offers. This is an absolute denial of transparency.

See also: The collusion of carriers and the network giant led to pathology in the labor market? UOKiK stepped in with an audit

Legal traps and the illusion of withdrawal

Even more interesting (and equally unsettling) is the thread concerning the right to withdraw from a service. Polish and EU law gives consumers 14 days to unilaterally cancel a contract signed outside the business premises. Columbus Energy, however, created a mechanism that, in the eyes of UOKiK, artificially closed that door.

According to the contested provisions, it was enough to start the first technical works for the customer to automatically lose the right to withdraw. The regulator reminds that both heat pumps and photovoltaic panels are infrastructure that can be dismantled if needed, and the mere start of installation does not strip the consumer of statutory rights.

Additionally, a separate document hid clauses suggesting that the customer was demanding an immediate start of work before the 14 days had passed. Such legal wizardry was designed to effectively block consumers’ way back before they fully reconsidered their decision.

See also: UOKiK accuses companies from Lower Silesia! Multi‑million penalties threaten them for setting wages, benefits, and more

Refunds? “Process ongoing”, i.e., a financial freezer

When customers managed to effectively cancel the contract, the next painful stage began: recovering money. According to regulations, the company must return the paid funds immediately, no later than 14 days. However, a wave of complaints indicated that Columbus Energy turned this process into a marathon of patience.

Customers waiting for refunds of deposits waited months, receiving template responses to complaints stating: “the settlement and approval of the refund process is ongoing.” No concrete dates, no declarations, just frozen capital.

The right to withdraw from a contract signed outside the premises is one of the fundamental consumer rights. The entrepreneur should not construct the content of provisions in a way that may lead customers to believe that this right expires earlier than the law states

- says UOKiK President Tomasz Chróstny. 

UOKiK sends a clear signal to the entire renewable energy sector – an innovative product does not justify archaic and prohibited market practices.

If the UOKiK president’s accusations are confirmed, Columbus Energy could face a penalty of up to 10% of the company’s annual turnover. For a company operating in such a competitive market, this is a powerful financial and reputational blow, and getting back on track could take many quarters.

See also: Dino shares at a 28% discount. UOKiK strikes at the giant! Working conditions in the network under scrutiny

Source: Office of Competition and Consumer Protection

The foreign delegation was known only to a narrow circle of people. Such discretion is not surprising, given that the representatives of Polish services spoke to a man who has been elusive to thousands of clients of the Estonian exchange and to law enforcement for three months.

According to "Rzeczpospolita" informants, the meeting took place in one of the Persian Gulf countries. The National Prosecutor's Office refused to answer questions about prosecutor Marek Wełna's trip and his conversation with Kral. At the same time, it did not deny that information.

The lack of confirmation does not mean the described events did not occur, but the lack of denial leaves room for the most important question. Why would investigators attempt such a discreet contact?

The answer may lie in Kral's knowledge. If he knows the mechanisms of the crypto exchange, the people involved in its operation, and the flow of funds, his testimony could give the case a completely new direction. Instead of analyzing individual leads, the prosecutor could receive a map of the entire system.

One conversation could unravel a much larger story

"Rzeczpospolita" points out that convincing Kral to cooperate in exchange for avoiding punishment would be a huge step forward for investigators. The stake is not only to reconstruct the crypto exchange's operations. According to the newspaper, knowledge of its head could help explain the mafia's involvement in laundering money in bitcoins. It could also shed new light on Suszek's disappearance. It is this broader context that gives informal negotiations weight.

The game for a witness who is still not a suspect

According to "Rzeczpospolita", the meeting in the Persian Gulf was meant to start negotiations leading to Kral's cooperation with the prosecutor's office. In exchange for witness status, he would reveal the whole truth about the crypto exchange. At this stage, however, precision must be maintained, as Przemysław Kral is currently not suspected of anything. There is no warrant on him, and the described conversations, if they indeed took place, would not be a meeting with a formally charged suspect, but an attempt to obtain a person who could possess information crucial to the proceedings.

The prosecutor does not need to have charges against Kral today to consider his knowledge potentially breakthrough. At the same time, any form of agreement would require legal justification and verification of the information he would choose to disclose.

The market ignores the potential. Experts bet on 40 PLN per share

According to analyst Grzegorz Balcerowski from DM Trigon, the target price of 40 PLN per share is still valid. The expert bases his valuation on the DCF method, and Bloober Team shares rose on 27 July by 1,04% to 24,25 PLN.

This means the target valuation suggests a powerful, over 60‑percent growth potential.

Experts still believe that the progress the company has made in recent years is not fully reflected in its valuation. The Kraków developer has a record of successful transformations, and the current position of the company provides a solid foundation for further development.

The market still seems to ignore the upcoming production pipeline, which, if the announced games are delivered successfully, opens an exceptional opportunity for investors.

Chart. Bloober Team share price

Source: TradingView.

See also: CD Projekt shares before the breakthrough? GPW waits for Witcher 3 DLC. Expert points to possible dates

From Star Trek to cult horrors – a portfolio packed with hits

Expert optimism is not unfounded, as it is driven by an extensive portfolio linked to powerful, global brands. Bloober Team has boldly entered segments that will allow it to stand out in the crowded gaming market.

One of the key points is the collaboration with Paramount Games and the publishing agreement signed in June with Skydance. Under this, “Star Trek: Shadow Frontier” is being developed, a high‑budget single‑player game planned for 2027. Meanwhile, in the fourth quarter of 2026, players will receive early access on PC for “Saw: Genesis”, a game based on the legendary horror series.

The production generates high interest, as Gamalytic data shows its wishlist currently has about 250,000 sign‑ups.

It is worth noting that this is just the tip of the iceberg, as this fall a DLC for the well‑received “Cronos” titled “Lasarus” will debut. The company is also working on another record for Konami (Silent Hill 1) and this time on noticeably more favorable commercial terms.

Moreover, an authorial but currently mysterious “Project H” is being developed, and in February “Layers of Fear 3” and an exclusive Nintendo console title are announced.

It is worth adding that analysts have provided specific sales estimates for key titles in the first year after release:

• 2.5 million copies for “Silent Hill 1”;
• 1.2 million copies for “Project H”;
• 0.5 million for “Saw: Genesis”;
• 300,000 copies for “Star Trek: Shadow Frontier”;
• 300,000 copies for “Layers of Fear”.

See also: CD Projekt competitor shares crashed! The company announced grim news. Fans must arm themselves with patience

Financial results and solid fundamentals for the jump

From a financial perspective, the situation looks stable. In the upcoming second‑quarter results, operating results are expected to be similar to those achieved in the first quarter of 2026. Estimates point to revenue of about 34 million PLN, with an even split between the WFH (Work‑for‑Hire) and self‑publishing segments.

It is worth recalling that with its own brand “Cronos”, the developer recently announced that it had exceeded the production budget on the revenue side. Additionally, the partnership with Skydance on the new “Star Trek” will positively boost the WFH segment, as the publisher co‑finances production. Operating costs are expected at 36 million PLN, including 13 million PLN of depreciation.

It is worth noting that the shares of the gaming industry leader, CD Projekt, rose on 27 July by 3,14% to 233,3 PLN.

Chart. CD Projekt share price

Source: TradingView.

See also: CD Projekt shares accelerate the bull? Investors wait for Witcher 3 DLC. We know possible dates!

Source: Biznes Radar.

The observed decline in the intensity of the conflict in the Middle East in recent days contributed to the strong drop in oil prices today.

Significantly lower prices of this commodity are pushing towards a reduction in global risk aversion, a decline in inflation expectations, and a reduction in pressure on bond yield growth.

Will Kevin Warsh decide on a "signal" rate hike?

The most important event of this week in the USA will be the Wednesday FOMC meeting. We expect the Fed to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50 - 3.75%, which would mean maintaining rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time after a total of 75 basis points cuts conducted at the end of 2025. Such a decision would be in line with market expectations. CPI inflation in June fell sharply due to a decline in energy price dynamics, but President K. Warsh, in a speech before Congress, emphasized that one should not draw far-reaching conclusions from a single reading (see MAKROmap on 20.07.2026), which, combined with a significant rise in energy commodity prices in July, significantly limits the dovish tone of the June inflation decline.

We expect the Fed's post-meeting statement to have a hawkish tone, emphasizing – just like the statement after the June meeting – uncertainty related to the situation in the Middle East and determination to bring inflation back to the inflation target (2.0%). We believe that K. Warsh's remarks at the conference will be consistent with his recent hawkish speeches, in which he stressed that the Fed cannot allow inflation to remain at elevated levels. We continue to expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2026, with the last cut occurring only in Q2 2027.

However, we see a significant risk of a one-time "signal" rate hike at the July Fed meeting, motivated by the need for President Warsh to build an anti‑inflationary reputation amid rising energy prices and the associated persistent inflationary pressure that hampers a return to the target.

GDP, PCE inflation and July CPI under market scrutiny

On Thursday, important US data will also be released. The market expects the annualized US GDP growth rate in Q2 2026 to be 2.1%, the same as in Q1. We believe that in the structure of US GDP growth in Q2, particular attention should be paid to non‑housing construction investments, which will allow assessing the scale of the impact of investment revival associated with AI deployment, as well as private consumption, which will allow assessing the impact of rising energy prices related to the Middle East conflict on the propensity of US households to consume.

Meanwhile, PCE inflation, in line with market consensus, fell to 3.7% YoY in June from 4.1% in May, reflecting primarily the decline in energy price dynamics observed in June, and core PCE inflation fell to 3.2% YoY in June from 3.4% in May. In our view, GDP data in Q2 and June PCE inflation will remain in the shadow of the Wednesday FOMC meeting and will not have a significant impact on the zloty and domestic debt market.

On Friday, preliminary estimates of Polish inflation for July will be released. We expect CPI inflation to have risen to 3.0% YoY from 2.5% in June due to a markedly higher fuel price dynamic, which was the result of the end of the government’s CPN protection program and the escalation of the Middle East conflict, leading to a strong rise in global oil prices (see above). In the opposite direction, the expected drop in core inflation (2.9% YoY in July versus 3.0% in June) will have an effect.

Although our forecast is slightly below market consensus (3.1%), its realization, indicating a strong rise in inflation compared to June, could contribute to a slight strengthening of the zloty and higher bond yields.

German economy slows, eurozone inflation rises

This week we will also see important eurozone and German data. According to our forecast, quarterly GDP growth in the eurozone increased to 0.1% QoQ in Q2 2026 from -0.2% in Q1, while in Germany it fell to 0.0% in Q2 versus 0.3% in Q1. Thus, GDP data will confirm stagnation of activity in the eurozone in Q2.

Our eurozone GDP forecast is slightly below market consensus (0.2%), so its realization will likely be neutral for the zloty and bond yields.

We expect HICP inflation in the eurozone to have risen to 2.9% YoY in July from 2.8% in June, driven by significantly higher energy price dynamics and an increase in core inflation to 2.5% YoY in July versus 2.4% in June. Thus, July will be the fifth consecutive month in which goods and services prices rose at a rate exceeding the ECB’s inflation target (2.0%).

We expect that due to the indirect impact of higher commodity prices on final goods prices, core inflation will not return to the inflation target at least until the end of 2027.

We maintain our assessment that the strength of secondary inflationary effects will initially be limited, and their impact on inflation will become fully visible only in Q4 this year and the first half of 2027. July eurozone inflation data will be consistent with our scenario of continued tightening by the ECB in the coming months.

Nevertheless, investors are currently pleased – although strategically nothing has changed in the Strait of Hormuz (it remains effectively closed) – oil has surged stronger, allowing a reaction in riskier assets. In the FX space the dollar has retraced – EURUSD has slipped slightly above 1.14.

In the gold market we therefore see USDPLN falling below 3.78, and EURPLN around 4.31.

Market attention in the coming days will focus on the FED meeting on July 28‑29. The chances of a rate hike are already low (31% according to the CME FED Watch model), but markets will closely watch the statement that will most likely confirm expectations regarding the September move (currently above 90%) – Kevin Warsh has indeed abandoned forward guidance language, but investors only need a clear “bird” message stating no tolerance for elevated inflation.

Conclusion? The current reaction of the zloty may prove short‑term if the dollar gains strength in the second half of the week.

In the macro calendar we have no domestic releases today; only on Friday will the GUS provide estimates of preliminary July inflation.

Investors can, however, look today at the German Ifo index (at 10:00), which will impact EURUSD.

Daily EURPLN chart

Daily USDPLN chart

Technically, attention is drawn to the significance of support at EURPLN 4.3074, which essentially could close the space for a deeper decline in the short‑term perspective.

The U.S. and Iran have halted the exchange of fire, which has contributed to a drop in oil prices (to about $90 per barrel of Brent) and a 5-7 basis point strengthening in base debt markets. This may also favor domestic bonds today.

After strengthening at the end of last week, the zloty remains near 4.31, and a downward move in the EURPLN rate may continue, although the 4.30 level is unlikely to be beaten today.

Good Ifo readings and U.S. data may also help curb the downward movement of yields in base markets and stabilize the EURUSD rate.

Market participants will await the Fed's Wednesday meeting and the debt auction.

The last session of the week on the domestic equity market was dominated by red. Index declines were however marginal, around 0.2%.

The currency market has been stabilizing above 4.30 for some time, and although the zloty's volatility remained limited, the zloty has gradually gained value.

EURPLN falls by 2 grosze!

The EURPLN rate fell during the day from about 4.33 to about 4.31, reaching the lowest levels since the first week of July. On the domestic interest rate market, after a significant rise in previous sessions, rates on Friday saw a correction of about 10 basis points on the short end of the curve and about 13 basis points on the long end.

The strengthening of bonds had a slightly smaller scope, and by the end of the day 10‑year bond yields were close to 5.79% after a drop of about 6 basis points.

Oil price down

International equity markets were dominated by green and index gains of about 0.9-1.5%.

Sentiment supported better-than-expected preliminary readings of PMI business activity indices for industry and services in the eurozone and the U.S. (mainly services).

The Middle East conflict remains in focus.

A White House representative announced that U.S. and Ukrainian presidents, D. Trump and W. Zelensky, will meet on Tuesday in Washington.

Hope for a return to talks was also supported by market sentiment and falling oil prices.

They fell to about $96 from about $100.

EURUSD fluctuations were marginal and fell to about 1.137 from about 1.142. In base debt markets, as well as domestically, after a longer period of rises, there was a downward correction of about 3-4 basis points.

At the end of the session, 10‑year Bund and U.S. Treasury yields ended near 3.17% and 4.66%, respectively.

Futures contracts for cocoa cooled after record increases, but as CNBC reports, high production costs and weaker consumer sentiment mean that the drop in raw material prices will not quickly translate into lower chocolate prices in stores.

Nevertheless, the latest raw material price hike has become a factor limiting profits for the biggest chocolate producers such as Barry Callebaut, Lindt, and Nestlé.

The first of the mentioned companies reported that although in the third quarter consumers worldwide are buying 4,4% less chocolate than in the same period last year, the company’s total sales increased by 5,7%.

It was the first such positive sales result for the company in over two years.

Lindt notes that price increases across the group, amounting to 11,8%, have led to a decline in chocolate sales volume of 7,5%.

“Record cocoa prices forced unprecedented price hikes across the industry, while geopolitical uncertainty, inflation, and weak consumer sentiment negatively affected demand,” said Lindt CEO Adalbert Lechner.

“The crisis in the Middle East was an additional restraining factor, causing a decline in tourist traffic from Asia and the Middle East to Europe,” he added.

Food company Nestlé reported that the rise in cocoa and coffee prices negatively affected operating profit in the first half of the year, which fell by 2,8%.

The giant expects that as cocoa prices fall, margin pressure will gradually ease.

The confectionery segment accounts for 9,7% of the group’s total sales.

CNBC reminds that recent cocoa price volatility has been mainly driven by poor harvests in West Africa, further deepened by weather events related to El Niño and climate change.

The problem was especially visible on the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which account for about 60–70% of global cocoa bean production.

The market was also affected by Donald Trump’s tariffs, which caused significant supply chain disruptions and contributed to sharp commodity price increases.

Chocolate producers are trying to win back customers by introducing new premium products such as Dubai chocolate and by increasing the use of social media trends.

Barry Callebaut, Lindt, and Nestlé have announced plans to increase their online activity to better respond to changing consumer preferences.

Read more about the cocoa market in the article: The coffee market records its biggest rebound in 26 years. Michał Stajniak, XTB: “Consumers must prepare for a return of inflation.”

See also: Gold price fell 12%, soon further discount? Expert: “With possible de-escalation there is a chance to make up for losses.”

Cocoa price falls after record rises

The price of cocoa futures contracts on Monday, July 27 is at 5330 USD per ton.

Over the past year the commodity cooled by more than 30%.

By the end of 2024, cocoa had risen to nearly 12,000 USD per ton, even though its price has hovered around 2-3 thousand USD over the past two decades.

Chart. Cocoa futures contract price

Source: Trading Economics.

Read also: Gold price will fall by a dozen percent. Banks revise forecasts. There is a risk of further correction XAU/USD

See also: Fuel prices in Poland will rise, shortages at stations? Expert: “It will not be a one-time sharp move that will affect drivers.”

Source: CNBC.

As editors at Spidersweb note, back in October 2024 Germany had over 706 thousand registered plug‑in installations. Today there are about 1.4 million. One or two modules, an inverter, a regular outlet and a balcony start producing energy, lowering the owner's annual bills.

And that’s why the boom is not slowing down. Cities and municipalities subsidise from 50 to 500 euros, and retail networks lure with promotions and energy storage. A resident starts the equipment without specialist knowledge and immediately uses their own electricity production. The grassroots energy transformation happens in front of operators. The only difference is scale changes everything. A simple system for a single tenant becomes difficult for an operator when thousands of devices operate outside his control.

Invisible current, visible risk

More and more owners do not register balcony photovoltaics. In Wuppertal the municipal energy plant counted 1,816 official installations, while the actual number is expected to be much higher. This is not a trivial administrative detail, but a serious data gap.

The operator then does not know how much energy households produce or when surpluses feed into the grid. With an old meter the situation becomes even more troublesome when a dwelling consumes less than the panels produce; the meter may start rolling back. Documents show lower consumption, but the additional electricity fed into the system is invisible.

As such installations increase, the risk of voltage spikes, overloads and automatic disconnections rises. The benefit of one family can therefore become a problem for an entire street. German law reacts quite sharply, non‑registration is an administrative offence punishable by up to 50,000 euros in fines.

The insurer may also refuse to cover damages caused by an unregistered installation.

Poland blocks the idea before it can be organized

Poland does not yet have clear regulations that would open the way for similar development. Decisions are made by cooperatives and communities, each according to its own rules. Instead of a simple process, long lists of requirements, approvals and safeguards appear.

In the Siemianowice Housing Cooperative a tenant must have home insurance for at least half a million zlotys. In the Poznań Housing Cooperative no one has yet received approval. The market does not mature. It dies.

Germany shows two mistakes at once: too little control creates chaos, and too many barriers kill initiative. Poland should not choose either path. It needs simple rules, mandatory registration and a procedure that protects the grid but does not deter residents. A balcony can lower bills, but only when the law stops pretending the problem does not exist. Are Polish cooperatives and legislators ready to understand this? Let’s start this debate now — before the first mass installations appear without rules.

In July the overall synthetic business activity indicator for Poland was 96.5 compared to 98.8 in June, said the Central Statistical Office.

Industrial utilisation of production capacity in July was 78.7%, versus 77.7% a year earlier, said GUS.

The total value of household financial assets at the end of Q1 2026 was 4,102,154 million PLN, said the NBP.

The Ministry of Finance is analysing various scenarios for changes to the tax scale parameters – the ministry informed PAP in response to a question about raising the personal income tax exemption.

After Thursday’s auction, the degree of financing of this year’s gross borrowing needs of the state budget is about 67%, the finance ministry told PAP Business.

From the world

The PMI index, which measures business conditions in the eurozone’s manufacturing sector, prepared by S&P Global, was 52 points in July versus 51.4 points at the end of the previous month – the first estimate. The market expected 51.5 points.

The PMI index, which measures business conditions in the eurozone’s services sector, prepared by S&P Global, was 51.6 points in July versus 49.4 points in the previous month – the first estimate. The market estimated 49.8 points.

The PMI index, which measures business conditions in France’s services sector, prepared by S&P Global, was 49.8 points in July versus 46.8 points at the end of the previous month – the first estimate.

The market estimated 47.5 points. The PMI index, which measures business conditions in France’s manufacturing sector, prepared by S&P Global, was 50 points in July versus 51.2 points at the end of the previous month – the first estimate.

The market estimated 51 points. Long‑term, three‑year inflation expectations in the eurozone in June were 2.8% versus 2.9% a month earlier, the European Central Bank said in a statement.

Forecasted +2.9%. The PMI index, which measures business conditions in the US manufacturing sector, prepared by S&P Global, was 53.8 points in July versus 53.9 points in the previous month – the preliminary estimate. The market expected 54.4 points.

The PMI index, which measures business conditions in the US services sector, prepared by S&P Global, was 53.6 points in July versus 51.2 points in the previous month – the preliminary estimate.

The market expected 51.5 points. The US PMI composite index, prepared by S&P Global, was 53.6 points in July versus 51.9 points in the previous month – the preliminary estimate.

The market expected 52.2 points. New home sales in the US in June were 628,000 on an annual basis, versus expected 607,000 – the Department of Commerce said. A month earlier sales were 618,000, after a correction from 580,000.

Recovery on both sides of the Atlantic

Preliminary July PMI readings indicate an improvement in business conditions in both the US and the eurozone, although the sources of growth and threats to further recovery remain divergent. In the eurozone the PMI Composite index rose to 51.9 points from 50.0 points in June, reaching its highest level in five months and signalling the first quarterly rise in economic activity in four months. The improvement covered both services (51.6 points) and manufacturing, where production reached its highest momentum since March 2022, and the PMI index rose to 52.0 points.

For the first time in four months, Germany also recorded an improvement, with the rise in activity accompanied by the first quarterly increase in new orders and a gradual rebuilding of employment. At the same time cost and price pressure weakened, reducing the pressure for further tightening of monetary policy by the ECB. Despite the improvement, respondents note that the durability of the recovery remains dependent on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and its impact on energy prices and global supply chains.

In the US July data also proved better than June’s. The PMI Composite index rose to 53.6 points from 51.9 points, reaching its highest level in eight months, mainly thanks to a clear rebound in the services sector. At the same time activity in manufacturing slightly slowed. Production and new orders grew at the slowest pace since March, and the manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 53.8 points.

A positive signal was the return of employment growth and improved business expectations, but the picture of business conditions deteriorates with the renewed intensification of inflationary pressure. Supply chain disruptions related to the conflict in the Middle East led to the largest delivery delays in almost four years, and the rise in costs and selling prices reached the fastest pace since 2022. This means that despite solid growth in economic activity, prospects for the US economy remain burdened by the risk of sustained high inflation.

Dollar strengthens

The past week saw a decline in the EUR‑USD rate. The dollar’s strengthening was supported by escalating tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices and increasing expectations of a more restrictive Fed policy. The ECB’s hawkish message failed to reverse this trend.

Stronger zloty

For most of the past week the zloty remained relatively stable, hovering near 4.33 per euro.

Despite an adverse external environment, the domestic currency benefited from the fading expectations of NBP rate cuts, which increased its resilience to global risk aversion.

The EUR‑PLN rate ultimately ended the week slightly below 4.32, following a mood improvement before the weekend and a better-than-expected PMI reading in Europe.

currency_calculator

Debt weakening

Last week the domestic debt market remained under pressure from rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions and the fading expectations of NBP rate cuts.

As a result bond yields rose sharply, reaching their highest levels since mid‑June. Base market yields also rose.

This week the data calendar for Poland is empty. Only on Friday will we learn the quick estimate of the July CPI. From abroad, today at 10:00 the July Ifo Institute index for the German economy. On Wednesday at 20:00 we will learn the Fed’s decision on interest rates. The market expects rates to remain unchanged.

On Thursday preliminary GDP readings for Q2'26 for the eurozone and the US, the July economic outlook report and preliminary HICP inflation data for July for Germany and Spain will be published. On Friday we will learn the preliminary HICP inflation reading for the eurozone for July.

Support for the PLN also came from rising expectations of NBP rate hikes, leading to an expanded expected NBP–EBC rate differential.

However, the scale of the zloty's appreciation was limited by the global dollar strengthening and the rise in Brent crude prices to around 100 USD/b, linked to the escalation of the Middle East conflict.

Euro rate – forecast for the current week

The stronger performance of the zloty against the euro is, for now, part of a technical correction scenario supported by improving domestic macro fundamentals. To reverse the weakening trend of the PLN since early June, an improvement in the external environment would also be needed, especially credible signals of de‑escalation in the Middle East and a clear drop in energy commodity prices.

Additional support for the zloty could come from a weaker dollar and falling UST yields, if the FOMC’s mid‑meeting message turned out to be less hawkish than the market expects, currently pricing in two Fed rate hikes by spring 2027.

Given the high uncertainty, mainly due to geopolitical conditions, we cautiously assume that in the current week EURPLN will oscillate in the range 4.3050–4.34.

For USDPLN, the risk remains upside, and the rate could test this year’s peak near 3.8130.

Domestic interest rate market

In the coming week, events on the domestic interest rate market that could support higher bond yields are planned. Consequently, 2‑year bond yields may still hover near 4.45%, and 10‑year yields around 5.75%.

Although we expect declines in the longer term, short‑term arguments for such a scenario are lacking. Bond valuations will also be weighed by the appearance of new supply, which, amid uncertain market conditions, takes on particular significance.

Already on Wednesday, the Ministry of Finance will hold an auction with an offer of about 7–13 billion PLN, and a day later the FPC bond tender will also be conducted by BGK. Additionally, on Friday the GUS will publish July inflation data, which we believe will exceed 3% on an annual basis.

Confirmation of inflationary pressure will be a negative signal for the market, which currently prices in a 25‑basis‑point NBP rate hike in 2026 and 50 basis points in 2027. It should be remembered that expectations for future RPP decisions are largely driven by information coming from the Middle East, and geopolitics will remain a key risk factor in the coming days.

Ongoing tensions on the US‑Iran line and a lack of credible de‑escalation signals may generate pressure to maintain high energy commodity prices, and consequently – potential tightening of monetary policy by major central banks.

In this direction, the ECB has already changed its rhetoric last week, suggesting a possible rate hike at the September meeting. Meanwhile, the Fed will hold a meeting next Wednesday, after which we are highly likely to hear similarly hawkish comments.

Trivial problems instead of political wars

At the head of the founding committee of the "August 80" Free Trade Union was a wall miner, Mateusz Demczuk.

And although another structure in the resource giant sounds like an accusation, its leaders distance themselves from allegations of escalating tensions.

I am a wall miner and, like you, I go underground every day, do my job and know the problems we face as employees of our mine perfectly. That is why, together with a group of employees, we founded the "August 80" Free Trade Union at Ruch Knurów - he explained in a statement.

Demczuk notes that the new organization was not created to fight the mine or shut it down, but to fight for employees and the future of the plant.

The motivation was not huge wage demands, but absurd everyday life. Examples include occupational health studies that require several days off in "Knurów", or gigantic delays in the laundry where a clean set can take up to a week.

Additionally, there are shortages of basic work tools such as protective gloves.

See also: KGHM Polska Miedź shares surprise! A breakthrough company agreement with the Warsaw Stock Exchange came to light.

Mathematics is absolute, i.e. 136 unions and a crisis in the background

The creation of the 136th union raises the absurdity bar even higher. Currently, JSW has 135 organizations functioning, and the unionization rate reaches an abstract level of 123,6% (many employees belong to several structures).

From the perspective of stock market investors, this is a clear signal that the company's management structure is extremely complicated.

This situation compounds the dramatic financial situation. JSW closed 2025 with a consolidated net loss of about 6,25 billion PLN, and the EBITDA result generated a minus of almost 5 billion PLN.

In the first quarter of the current year, the loss was limited to just under 616 million PLN, but the fire still burns. Backlog to ZUS amounts to about 1 billion PLN, obligations to suppliers exceed 600 million PLN, and on the bottom line key materials such as stone dust, track ballast fuel, or enclosure components are starting to run out.

See also: KGHM Polska Miedź shares before the drop - analysts say. The rally on the Warsaw Stock Exchange continues thanks to Trump.

JSW shares versus unions - do markets have reasons to worry?

Despite the February agreement on limiting labor costs, management's relations with the crew are highly strained. In July, unionists warned of massive staffing shortages at the Knurów-Szczygłowice mine.

Retirement, severance, and mining holidays cause the rest of the crew to work under strong pressure.

Shareholders directly fear that another trade union could lower JSW's price on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Although theoretically rational demands for better gloves and efficient medical studies will not sink the company, for investors it is another confirmation that JSW is a complex organism where management is starting to fail badly.

If the lack of hands and organizational chaos translates into a lower output of coking coal, shareholders will indeed have reasons to worry.

On Friday, July 24, at the market close, JSW shares fell by 1,97% settling at 25,40 PLN.

Chart. Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa (JSW) share price

Source: TradingView.

See also: Company shares from the Warsaw Stock Exchange will fall by almost 30%! "Sell" - the new recommendation says.

Source: Jastrzębie Online.

Creotech Instruments Satellite contract with ESA Creotech Instruments signed an agreement with the European Space Agency to implement the project titled "IOD B - Dynamic Satellite Tasking". The signed agreement covers the implementation of the first phase of the satellite construction project, valued at 750 thousand euros, and is expected to be completed in 2026. The project concerns the construction of a satellite whose task is to demonstrate fast and safe satellite tasking using a distributed transmission architecture.

Cyfrowy Polsat CFO change Katarzyna Ostap-Tomann resigned from her position as a board member of Cyfrowy Polsat effective July 31, 2026. The new financial board member from August 1, 2026 will be Anna Miller-Pytlak, former CFO deputy. As stated, Anna Miller-Pytlak has been associated with the Polsat Plus Group for 17 years, where since 2016 she has held managerial roles – Deputy Director of the Reporting and Financial Control Department, then Director of the Reporting and Financial Control Department, and since 2024 Deputy Board Member for Finance (CFO).

Grupa Pracuj Strategic acquisition Grupa Pracuj carried out the acquisition of No Fluff Jobs, a brand previously developed by Ringier Axel Springer Polska for PLN 10.4 million. The takeover of the recruitment service for the IT and marketing sectors aims to strengthen Grupa Pracuj’s position in this segment.

Żabka Strategic investor withdrawal The company Seven & i Holdings, a Japanese retail conglomerate that manages, among others, the global Seven-Eleven store network, announced on Saturday that it has withdrawn from investing in the Żabka Group, but it is still looking for business opportunities in Europe.

SWIG80 and others

Molecure Continuation of the clinical study Molecure received a positive recommendation from the Independent Data Monitoring Committee (IDMC) to continue the Phase II clinical study of the OATD-01 molecule in patients with active pulmonary sarcoidosis without any changes to the study protocol.

VIGO Photonics Share buyback Based on a preliminary analysis of the types of goods and materials imported from China, the management assesses that the decision of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce will not have a critical impact on VIGO Photonics. The Ministry of Commerce of China announced on Friday that in retaliation for EU sanctions it has listed 14 EU entities – including the Polish company Vigo Photonics and Wrocław University of Science and Technology – on the list of companies and institutions subject to export control.

ZE PAK Funding of the investment program The Power Plant Team PAK signed an agreement with UniCredit, which provides for the granting of a term loan to ZE PAK not exceeding PLN 340 million. The funds will be used to finance or refinance costs or expenses related to the acquisition and implementation of projects within the renewable energy installation teams in the form of wind farms in the Opole Voivodeship with a total expected connection capacity of about 500 MW (under the Green Tranche) and to finance or refinance costs or expenses related to the acquisition and implementation of projects within the Opole Project, general corporate objectives, and the company’s working capital (under Tranche B).

The Polish energy mix is changing faster than the way it is managed. In 2025, renewables delivered 54.7 TWh out of 174.3 TWh of gross domestic electricity production. Wind produced 23.8 TWh, and photovoltaics 20.3 TWh. At peak times, the share of both sources reached 73 %.

Here comes the problem, because photovoltaics produce the most on sunny afternoons, wind under favorable conditions, and demand does not always rise in the same rhythm. When there are no consumers, storage, or sources that can quickly reduce output, the operator cuts renewable production.

As highlighted in one of the latest Spidersweb reports, the scale of the phenomenon is no longer marginal, because from January to the end of June 2025, 879 GWh of wind and solar energy were curtailed, worth about 375 million PLN nominally. The number of hours with negative prices rose to 315. This is no longer an anomaly, but a signal that the system has energy but no place to direct it.

Heating plant as a safety valve

The solution is to combine power generation with district heating. Power‑to‑Heat technologies, electric furnaces, resistance furnaces, large‑scale heat pumps, and heat storage can convert a temporary surplus of green electricity into heat for cities.

The mechanism is similar to charging a reservoir when energy is available and using it later. The heating plant increases consumption during high PV or wind production hours, converts electricity to heat, and stores it until consumers need it. It does not generate electricity then. It draws it in a controlled way, becoming a “negative power source” for the system.

The potential is large. The production of commissioned heat accounts for about 60 % of national electricity production, and network‑delivered heat about 34 %. This is a sufficiently large consumer to take over some of the surpluses that currently go to waste.

Instead of paying twice, combine systems?

Sector coupling offers a double benefit, as it reduces waste of renewable energy and accelerates the shift of district heating away from coal, which still accounts for about 57 % of the chemical energy of fuels used in commissioned heat sources.

Today the system shuts down wind turbines and photovoltaics, while heating plants burn fuel. After integration, the electricity surplus becomes heat, the storage takes it for later, and cities use fewer fossil fuels. The same energy works for two sectors.

With transformation costs estimated at 299–466 billion PLN, Poland cannot choose solutions based solely on the price of a single installation. The cost of the entire system matters.

Representatives of Iran and Oman met over the weekend to discuss issues related to the capacity of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, reported.

The talks were described as "constructive" and led to "some progress" in easing tensions between Washington and Tehran.

However, no details of the agreements were disclosed.

Read also: Currency rates before the turnaround? Expert: "It's another signal strengthening the dollar and weakening the zloty"

While the United States seeks to limit Iran's ability to launch attacks on commercial vessels, investors fear further escalation of the conflict and additional decisions by Donald Trump.

Iranian armed forces spokesperson, Mohammad Akraminia, warned that "if Americans insist on continuing the war and raids, the area of military operations will expand".

A few days ago, the U.S. President expressed uncertainty about ending the conflict in the Middle East, considering, as Axios confirmed, a "massive attack" on Iran.

We wrote more about this in the article: The dollar rate carries risk! Experts warn. Trump is preparing another blow to Iran, Axios claims.

According to information provided by Axios, Admiral Brad Cooper, the highest-ranking U.S. commander responsible for operations in the Middle East, reportedly recommended halting further attacks, arguing that "they have reached the limit of their effectiveness".

In recent days, Trump was reportedly willing to resume military operations before his stance changed.

Read also: The dollar rate on a long road to 4 PLN? Expert issued forecasts for USD/PLN and EUR/USD. "The dollar may gain"

See also: Will the dollar surprise again? Expert issued a forecast for USD/PLN and EUR/USD. "I find it hard to believe there will be no more fires"

Dollar and euro rates on Monday, July 27

The dollar to zloty rate on Monday, July 27 is at 3,77 PLN.

Maciej Przygórzewski, chief currency expert at Currency One, told FXMAG which factors currently influence the main currency pairs.

"In my view, the key for dollar rates will be clarifying the situation in the Persian Gulf. The more tensions, the better for the dollar at the expense of the euro or zloty", he said.

The expert emphasized that last week's dollar strengthening was due to several significant events and did not result solely from escalation of tensions on the USA–Iran line.

First, these are expectations regarding interest rate hikes at next week's meeting.

"Here, of course, there are great labor market data published on Thursday (very low unemployment benefit claims), but it is clear that the decision on hikes seems inevitable. The question is only whether it will be July or September," he stated.

Second, we still have the final ECB conference.

"Investors had high expectations. Ms. Christine Lagarde approached the conference very cautiously. She did not ignore the threats in the form of conflict escalation in the Middle East, but strongly relied on macroeconomic data. That played in favor of the dollar. The market believes much more in U.S. hikes than in those in the euro zone," he added.

Chart. Dollar to zloty rate (USD/PLN)

Source: Trading Economics.

The euro to dollar rate reaches 1,14 USD.

Chart. Euro to dollar rate (EUR/USD)

Source: Trading Economics.

Read also: Dollar rate before the chance to break out? Expert: "Capital will flow back to USD again"

See also: Dollar rate before a "nervous and dynamic" move, euro waiting for a drop? Expert issued forecast for USD/PLN and EUR/USD

Sources: Bloomberg, Axios.

Among the largest companies, Pepco shares performed best, rising 1.50% during Friday’s session. Trading on major foreign markets performed noticeably better.

DAX gained 1.36%, CAC40 rose 0.88%, and the UK FTSE250 increased 0.74%. The most important macro releases were preliminary PMI indices.

In the euro zone, the composite index rose in July to 51.9 points from 50.0, mainly thanks to a rebound in industry, and the biggest positive surprise came from Germany, where the index reached 51.2 points versus expected 49.7.

In the United States, the composite PMI rose to 53.6 points, confirming the economy’s continued resilience.

Brent falls over 5%

The start of the week should bring a clear improvement in sentiment in global financial markets. Over the weekend, the United States and Iran paused mutual attacks, which investors interpreted as a signal of possible conflict de-escalation.

On Monday morning Brent oil prices fall over 5%.

In the macro calendar, investors will focus mainly on the release of the German Ifo index. Consensus expects the business climate indicator to rise to 86.1 points from 85.6 in June. The reading will be an important complement to Friday’s PMI data and will help better assess whether the improvement in German economic activity is also reflected in business sentiment. At 14:30, orders for durable goods in the United States will be published. Economists expect a 1.6% rise after a 4.5% drop in May.

The reading will be one of the key reference points before the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday decision.

Japanese giant abruptly ends talks with Żabka

At the beginning of the week, Żabka may be in the spotlight, because on Saturday Seven & i Holdings, the owner of the 7-Eleven chain, announced the withdrawal from the planned investment in the Polish company. The reason was a lack of agreement with the seller on transaction terms.

Alphabet fell 7.8%, Tesla over 17.8%

Google’s owner lost 7.8 percent, while Elon Musk’s company was discounted by over 17.8 percent. In the Alphabet and Tesla reports, as in a lens, investors’ concerns focused on the scale of spending on artificial‑intelligence development amid growing doubts about the profitability of the investments made. The falls in Alphabet and Tesla even covered the rebound in the semiconductor sector, which was measured by the iShares Semiconductor ETF and managed to gain 1 percent on a falling market.

In sum, market news could have been dominated by reports of the closure of shipping in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and the spillover of the war in the Middle East onto another transport route, but the focus was still on the U.S. technology sector.

The focus on AI‑related companies appears understandable when considering that Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Microsoft and Meta Platforms now make up about a quarter of the S&P500 index. In practice, the market cannot do anything that will or will not be allowed by companies in the AI basket. In other words, investors can look for clues in the oil market, react to macro data, or to President Donald Trump’s statements about destroying Iran and imposing new tariffs on 60 U.S. trade partners on false pretexts, but ultimately the behavior of a few of the heaviest stocks in the market will determine whether the indices follow the impulses from those directions.

Therefore, last week’s 2.13 percent drop in the Nasdaq Composite was built on Thursday’s 2.15 percent dip, when the index reacted to Alphabet and Tesla earnings. There is also no case in the fact that the weekly loss of the S&P500 was decided by Thursday’s 1.21 percent pullback.

It should be assumed that the outlined balance of forces will cause AI‑related companies to maintain market control in the coming week as well. The focus will be on the quarterly reports of four members of the Magnificent Seven basket – Microsoft and Meta Platforms (Wednesday), Apple and Amazon (Thursday) – of which at least three have the potential to set the mood for the final sessions of July.

Increasing debt‑market pressure

For balance, it is worth noting the increasing debt‑market pressure related to inflationary tensions and investors’ perception of the future of monetary policy worldwide. Looking at the CME FedWatch Tool model, it is easy to see that the market’s belief in no credit‑price increase by the U.S. Federal Reserve next Wednesday has been replaced by valuations of the growing risk of such a step, which have already reached 31 percent. A week ago, the valuation of such a scenario barely reached 13 percent.

Equally important, the market is almost certain that if not in July, then in September the U.S. credit price will rise by 25 basis points, and in December it will be higher by 50 basis points. In fact, the scenario of a third rate hike by the Fed in spring 2027 is already – modestly, but nevertheless – appearing in valuations. The valuations appear exaggerated, but they also reflect movements in the debt market, where yields rise, which directly relates to costs in the economy and financing of investments for AI development.

In sum, if the finished week is a hint for market behavior in the final week of July, it is worth expecting a relatively calm first half, which will be completely covered by the second half, when markets will react not only to Fed signals but also to the quarterly results of U.S. technology giants, especially leaders heavily investing in artificial intelligence.

While in the second half of July the stability of WIG20 was largely due to the performance of Żabka shares, the start of this week may bring a completely different scenario.

On Saturday, Seven & i Holdings, the Japanese retail conglomerate that had been negotiating the acquisition of a significant stake in Żabka, withdrew from further negotiations.

Earlier, on the wave of information about ongoing talks, the company’s shares rose by about 20% over two sessions (July 16 and 17).

Meanwhile, the week’s close on Wall Street was mixed. The S&P 500 managed to rise by a symbolic 0.05%, while the tech Nasdaq fell 0.64%.

So far, almost 30% of companies have published their results.

In 86% of cases, the reported earnings were higher than consensus, prompting analysts to raise the earnings‑per‑share (EPS) growth forecast for the S&P 500 in Q2 to almost 38% year‑over‑year.

Recall that at the start of the earnings season, an EPS growth of 23% year‑over‑year was expected.

Just as in the first‑quarter earnings season, this “surprise” was largely driven by Alphabet’s reported accounting profit from over‑valuing investments in Anthropic and SpaceX.

Therefore, the term “surprise” this time should be taken with a large quotation mark. From the perspective of the earnings season, this week marks its climax.

Upcoming Reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon

In the coming days we will see, among others, reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon. Investors will likely watch closely the board comments from these companies regarding increasing spending on data‑center construction. For Alphabet, the somewhat “hawkish” tone of the company’s leadership on AI spending led to a 7%+ share price decline in the next session.

It is therefore clear that in the second half of the week investors will face a clear increase in volatility, especially as the July Fed meeting will also conclude on Wednesday. For Kevin Warsh, this will be the second meeting after taking over as Federal Reserve Chair from J. Powell.

At the time of writing, oil prices are down about 5%. The last week’s attack on the $100 per barrel level has so far been deemed unsuccessful. The direct cause of the declines is the pause after two weeks of US attacks. According to media reports, the pause in the exchange of fire was prompted by an Oman delegation’s visit to Tehran.

For the market, it is important that despite regular flare‑ups, the diplomatic channel remains open. The drop in oil prices also affects the bond market – in the morning, the yield on U.S. 10‑year bonds falls by 5 basis points.

Recall that last week the yield on the U.S. 10‑year bond surpassed the May peak, becoming a significant burden for the equity market.

The Asian session is running in a calm atmosphere – Hang Seng gains about 0.7%, Nikkei 0.2%, while KOSPI 0.5%.

We expect that over the next two days investors will shift to a waiting mode.

Undoubtedly, the most interesting phase of the week is still ahead and will begin on Wednesday evening.

Contribution holidays occur once a year and cover one selected month. The company does not have to suspend operations or cancel invoices. It can continue to sell and earn, and the entrepreneur does not pay their own contributions: pension, disability, and accident. 

The exemption can also cover voluntary sickness benefits and contributions to the Labour Fund and Solidarity Fund.

A request is submitted a month in advance, so a document sent in August will only take effect for September. With full ZUS calculated from the minimum base plus the sickness rate, the amount is 1,926.76 PLN. Without sickness, the entrepreneur retains 1,788.29 PLN.

Matching the company’s rhythm

A month of contribution holidays can be matched to the company’s rhythm, i.e., weaker revenues, higher expenses, or vacation slowdown. Instead of paying almost 2,000 PLN in social contributions, the entrepreneur keeps that money in the business and reduces liquidity pressure.

The scale of benefits depends on the type of contributions. 

• An individual using preferential ZUS with sickness will pay 456.18 PLN less.  
• With Small ZUS Plus, the exemption amount is based on an individual base. It is not worth artificially raising it. ZUS will still calculate the relief from the lowest applicable base for the entrepreneur.

The name may be misleading. The health contribution remains mandatory, as do obligations for employees, contractors, and collaborators. The state finances only the entrepreneur’s social contributions, which will be recorded on their account and contribute to future pension or disability.

Before you click “send”, check the blocks

Relief is available to those running an activity registered in CEIDG, partners of civil law partnerships, and court bailiffs. In the month preceding the application, the entrepreneur can register up to ten people, including themselves, for insurance. They must also be subject to social insurance from the business for at least one day.

Revenue matters. For applications submitted in 2026, the years 2024 and 2025 are examined. The condition is met by those who did not achieve revenue in at least one of those years or did not exceed the equivalent of 2 million euros.

The path to relief can be closed by cooperation with a former employer in the same activities previously performed on a full-time basis. It must also stay within the de minimis assistance limit, generally 300,000 euros over three years.

The RWS application is submitted solely via eZUS. From the end of June 2026, a new form is in effect, and a civil partnership partner sends it from their payer account. After the relief is granted, documents for settlement, including ZUS DRA and relevant RCA reports, must still be provided.

From December 2025 to June 29, 2026, entrepreneurs submitted over 500,000 applications, and relief for the first half-year reached nearly 739 million PLN. 

The strongest point of Poland’s offer concerns the planned production of Patriot systems. After President Donald Trump’s declaration of considering building a factory in Ukraine, Warsaw proposed a three‑party model: the US, Ukraine, and Poland.

The logic is simple. Ukraine needs armaments, Americans want to develop production, and Poland can provide a safer location for part of the process.

This is not a cosmetic tweak but an attempt to change the project architecture. Instead of one factory exposed to risk, a collaboration emerges that links Ukraine’s needs with a base located in a safe place.

Sobkowiak‑Czarnecki highlighted the scale of demand: Patriots are needed essentially worldwide. For Poland it would mean more than just another purchase.

Participation in co‑production would give a seat at the table where decisions on production, supplies, and long‑term cooperation are made. Now the talks are to take place between three countries.

We talked about what President Donald Trump said at the NATO summit in Ankara, namely his declaration that a Patriot factory would be considered on Ukrainian territory. The offer I made today from the Polish side is to meet certain American concerns, and we proposed a triangular cooperation – the United States, Ukraine, but also Poland, because it is about securing that production, so that it takes place in a safe location. This is a product that is needed worldwide. That is why our offer is to participate in such co‑production - the deputy minister emphasized

Today I very concretely presented the steps the Polish government has already taken. Among other things, we have a concrete resolution of the Council of Ministers. We also have a draft law that could provide financing for this base - she added

- I hope the signing (of the agreement) will also take place within a few weeks

More US troops, but with a Polish account at the table

The second pillar of the talks concerned additional US military presence in Poland. Warsaw did not come with just a declaration.

The deputy minister presented a resolution of the Council of Ministers and a draft law that would provide financing for the base.

This is a clear signal. Poland is not waiting solely for Washington’s decision, but is building its own legal and financial framework.

It wants not only to invite American soldiers but also to create conditions that allow their presence to be maintained.

On the American side, a team is already working on creating a base. An analogous team operates in the Polish Ministry of National Defense. The political declaration therefore falls to a working level – where the organization of the undertaking is decided.

From equipment credit to joint industry

The talks also covered another loan for American military equipment under Foreign Military Financing. Sobkowiak‑Czarnecki expressed hope that the agreement would be signed within a few weeks. The purchase of equipment, however, does not exhaust Polish ambitions.

A broader direction is seen in the deputy minister’s participation in EU Defence Night.

As the only minister from the European Union, she appeared in a panel on US‑European industrial cooperation in defense, together with Andrius Kubilius and Michael P. Duffey. The emphasis is clear: the conversation is no longer solely about purchases but also about joint production.

Poland is trying to combine military presence, purchase financing, co‑production, and the SAFE mechanism into one story of lasting partnership. The question now is: will decisions follow the declarations and establish real production capabilities on the Vistula? The discussion must start today – before others take a seat at the table.

On July 25, 2026, the foreign exchange market requires 4.3195 PLN per euro (quote from 20:30 the previous day from one of the partner currency platforms). This represents a change of -0.09% (-0.41 grosz) compared to yesterday's close (referencing NBP fixings). NBP average rate: 4.3257 PLN. Yesterday's daily high: 4.3390 PLN. Daily low: 4.3195 PLN.
 

EUR/PLN chart – how the euro rate changes?

The chart above shows the behavior of the EUR/PLN currency pair. In a monthly view the euro rate rose by 0.24%, and over the last 12 months the change is 2.51%.
 

Euro to PLN converter (EUR/PLN)

How much is 10, 50 or 100 euros in Polish zloty? The following cheat sheet shows the value of the most popular amounts at the current rate (according to the NBP rate) following the scheme Amount in EUR | Value in PLN

1 EUR | 4.33 PLN

10 EUR | 43.26 PLN

50 EUR | 216.29 PLN

100 EUR | 432.57 PLN

500 EUR | 2162.85 PLN

1000 EUR | 4325.70 PLN

currency_calculator

Euro rate over the last 10 days (Table)

Here are the average euro rates (EUR/PLN) over the last 10 business days (scheme: Date | NBP average rate (EUR/PLN) | Day‑to‑day change )

24.07.2026 | 4.3257 PLN | -0.0041 PLN (-0.09%)
23.07.2026 | 4.3298 PLN | +0.0003 PLN (+0.01%)
22.07.2026 | 4.3295 PLN | +0.0027 PLN (+0.06%)
21.07.2026 | 4.3268 PLN | -0.0091 PLN (-0.21%)
20.07.2026 | 4.3359 PLN | -0.0061 PLN (-0.14%)
17.07.2026 | 4.3420 PLN | +0.0158 PLN (+0.36%)
16.07.2026 | 4.3262 PLN | -0.0013 PLN (-0.03%)
15.07.2026 | 4.3275 PLN | -0.0132 PLN (-0.31%)
14.07.2026 | 4.3407 PLN | +0.0126 PLN (+0.29%)
13.07.2026 | 4.3281 PLN | -0.0033 PLN (-0.08%)

Commentary on the trend: Over the last 10 days the euro rate ranged from 4.3257 PLN to 4.3420 PLN. The overall trend in this period indicates a slight strengthening of the zloty against the common currency.
 

Official NBP average rates (EUR, USD, CHF, GBP)

We provide a summary from the official NBP Table A (no. 142/A/NBP/2026) current as of July 25 (Saturday) 2026. Scheme: Currency | Code | NBP average rate

Euro | EUR | 4.3257 PLN

US dollar | USD | 3.8000 PLN

Swiss franc | CHF | 4.6538 PLN

British pound | GBP | 5.0620 PLN

Meanwhile, according to NBP Table C (no. 142/C/NBP/2026), the euro buying rate is 4.2870 PLN, and the selling rate is 4.3736 PLN.
 

What today influences the euro rate? (Market commentary)

In today's (weekend) trading, the euro rate is affected by Friday's macroeconomic data and current market sentiment in European markets. The common currency shows low volatility during the summer period, and the zloty remains relatively strong, benefiting from a stable economic situation and a hawkish NBP stance.
 

About the euro (EUR) – basic information

The euro (€) is the official currency of the eurozone, used in 20 European Union member states. It was introduced in cashless form in 1999, and banknotes and coins entered circulation on January 1, 2002. The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt am Main is responsible for the monetary policy of the eurozone. The euro to zloty rate (EUR/PLN) is crucial for the Polish economy, directly affecting import and export costs as well as fuel and consumer goods prices.

The user opens the app, and the update runs in the background. Short processing messages may appear on the screen, but nothing needs to be approved or additional steps taken.

The risk starts after August 5. If certificates expire, some documents may lose validity and require separate updates in their details. The mProof and Time‑Protection Document may also require re‑authentication by the National Node. Then a quick app launch turns into a full login path, through electronic banking, e‑proof or a trusted profile.

Before the deadline it is enough to launch the program; after the deadline the user may lose access to documents needed at the office, during ticket checks or other situations where instant identity confirmation matters.

Youngest users have more to lose

The update also covers students and children using mCitizen Junior. Some students must renew their e‑student card and will receive a notification. If the document requires reactivation, the student will need to go to the dean’s office for a new QR code, then add the card again to the phone.

A similar obligation applies to parents. The mCitizen Junior app must be opened before August 5. Failure to update can disable the child’s digital student card, and regaining access requires the guardian to generate a new QR code on the Integrated Educational Platform and scan it again in the app.

Two nights when it’s better to trust plastic

Before the cutoff date two maintenance windows are scheduled. The first will run from 8:00 PM on Saturday July 25 to 2:00 AM on Sunday July 26, 2026. The second will occur at the same hours on the night of August 1–2.

During the work some services may run slower or become intermittently unavailable.