Commodities

Analysis: Global Oil Markets Volatile Amid Middle East Geopolitical Tensions

Supply-side fears have spiked crude oil spot prices: short-term vs medium-term outlook.

France’s Social Security Budget Passes by Narrow Margin, Raising Fiscal Risks for 2026

France passed its social security budget, but the state budget remains unresolved, and the deficit outlook is worsening

Energy and Metals Update: Peace Talks Pressure Oil and Gas Markets, Copper Nears $11,000

Positive signals from both the US and Ukraine regarding a Russia-Ukraine peace deal continue to put pressure on energy markets. However, there’s little clarity on where Russia stands on the current plan

Ukraine Peace Deal Hopes Weigh on EUR Inflation Swaps as Real Rates Hit New Highs

Intuitively, a deal with Russia would help euro rates higher, but falling gas futures are already pushing down the curve through lower inflation expectations. Tensions with Russia are likely to stay, which means risk sentiment should remain fragile 

Commodities Move on Geopolitics and Weather as Oil Rises, Gas Falls, and Nickel Faces Supply Risks

Oil prices rose yesterday, in step with a global equity rally. However, peace talks remain a crucial area of uncertainty for the market

Rising December Rate Cut Bets Drive Volatility in Silver and Bonds

• Fed rate cut expectations surge: Probability of a December 2025 rate cut jumped from 39% to nearly 70% in one day (CME FedWatch Tool)
• Silver market reacts: Increased volatility as traders respond to dovish Fed commentary
• Bond yields drop: 2Y and 10Y Treasury yields fall, steepening the curve and boosting appetite for risk assets, including precious metals

US Markets End Week Mixed Amid Fed Rate Speculation; Dollar Strength Shines

The week draws to a close on a positive note after a significant selloff in risk assets as US rate cut bets continued to decline from the Federal Reserve's December meeting.

Energy and Agriculture Markets React to Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks and Trade Developments

Oil prices are under renewed pressure amid ongoing peace talks to end the war in Ukraine

Diesel Strength Leads Energy Markets as Metals Rally on Grasberg Restart Plans

Oil prices moved higher yesterday amid lingering supply risks, and a stronger diesel market lent additional support

Pricing in Czech manufacturing remains tepid

Tepid pricing in the industry and weakening price dynamics in agriculture are a downward risk for consumer prices. If consumer spending remains steady, inflation is likely to hover around the target over the upcoming year. A combination of factors might result in a low-inflation environment

Higher wages and lower inflation could mark a turning point for Hungary's economy

Wage growth was slightly higher than expected in September. This growth in purchasing power could overcome the Hungarian economy’s Achilles heel: a lack of confidence. In the coming months, inflation will fall and wages will grow strongly

Romania: NBR Maintains Dovish Bias Despite Higher Inflation Forecasts

At a calm press briefing, the National Bank of Romania unveiled its November Inflation Report, announcing upward revisions to its inflation trajectory. The overall message conveyed stability, indicating that the Bank remains on a steady course despite the higher projections

Dollar Eyes Soft US Data While EUR, GBP, and CZK React to Policy and Fiscal Developments

The drop in USD this week seems to be linked to expectations that US data will come in soft. But hearing Fed speakers, the move seems a bit premature, even if it looks like we could get September payrolls data soon. In the UK, the government is scrapping its income tax hike plans. GBP downside risks have suddenly increased

Germany Confronts Structural Economic Weakness as New Policy Measures Signal a Shift

Earlier this summer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz promised a 'Fall of reforms'. This week, the government moved to accelerate decision-making, unveiling a fresh set of policy announcements within just the past 24 hours

Asia Outlook: Central Banks Hold Steady as Growth Diverges Across the Region

Bank Indonesia and the People’s Bank of China are both expected to maintain current interest rate levels. Key releases include Japan's GDP, trade figures, and inflation, Taiwan's export orders and Singapore's GDP

USD Steady Ahead of Fed’s Williams Speech as Carry Trades Remain in Focus

The carry trade suffered a stress test yesterday, when one popular target currency, the Hungarian forint, had to cope with prospects of wider budget deficits. After selling off 0.7%, the forint is already coming back bid. With volatility expected to stay low, it's hard to see any major unwinds of carry strategies in the near term

Chuseok Holiday Distorts South Korea’s Labour Data as Job Market Weakens Slightly

South Korea’s jobless rate rose in October, but it remains below 3%. The Bank of Korea is expected to keep policy unchanged in November amid concerns about property risk and volatile foreign exchange markets

Philippines Q3 GDP Slows Sharply as Investment and Consumption Weaken

Third-quarter GDP growth disappointed at 4.0% YoY, dragged down by weak investment and softer government spending, while exports provided temporary support. We downgrade our 2025 growth forecast to 4.7% (from 5.2%) as sentiment weakens and tariff headwinds loom, reinforcing our call for a 25bp central bank rate cut in December

Energy Markets Weaken as Oil Inventories Rise; Record Fund Shorts in TTF Despite Winter Risks

Oil prices settled lower yesterday with a large increase in US crude oil inventories, while surplus expectations for the global oil market will also be providing some headwinds

USD Steady Amid Market Nervousness: ADP Data to Set the Tone

The risk mood has darkened a little this week, with some sizeable corrections emerging in some equity markets. There has not been one catalyst per se, but lofty valuations must be leading to some profit-taking in uncertain conditions. For today, it's all about the US ADP jobs release and what it means for the December Fed meeting. Expect FX to stay defensive

China Shock 2.0: Europe’s Growing Dependence and the New Wave of Industrial Competition

Increased Chinese competition within Europe and in third markets has been a trend that restarted with Covid, and may intensify now as a result of global trade tensions. While stronger Chinese competition can potentially mute eurozone inflation and GDP growth, it is also likely to aggravate problems in key industries

NBP Poised to Continue Easing as Inflation Nears Target

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has repeatedly warned of upside risks to inflation over the medium term, but this has not prevented the central bank from cutting rates as inflation moderates. Rate-setters have cut rates at each policy meeting since July, and we expect another 25bp cut on 5 November 

US Treasuries Continue to Trade Heavily as Yields Edge Higher

US Treasury yields look like they want to nudge higher when they can. And why not, as corporate earnings are firm, and hard macro data is being kept under shutdown wraps. New lows in euro rate volatility help spreads on European government bonds (EGBs) tighten further. Given the spread tightness, Bunds look increasingly attractive as a risk hedge

Germany Remains a Nation of Renters as ‘Green Renoflation’ Redefines Housing Affordability

Affordability in the German real estate market remains strained. However, the recent surge in rents and a low homeownership ratio should still support the market

Oil Market Softens Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting as Sanction Risks Fade"

PEC+ is scheduled to meet this weekend, with the expectation that the group will agree on an output hike for December

Spain’s Growth Cools but Remains Resilient Amid Broader European Slowdown

Spain’s economy grew by 0.6% over the third quarter, following a robust second quarter, as external demand weakened. With signs of cooling in industrial activity and tourism, growth is expected to normalise over the coming quarters and into 2026

Power Play: How the Trump Administration Is Rewriting America’s Energy Future

To meet surging power demand, the US needs to leverage all sources of energy with a laser focus on efficiency, reliability and affordability, not least if it's going to win the AI race too

US Sanctions Shake Oil Markets: Rosneft and Lukoil in the Crosshairs

Oil prices are trading firmer this morning after the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoila

Metals in Motion: Copper’s Momentum, Aluminium’s Constraints, Tariff Uncertainty and Gold’s Volatile Rally

LME Week, the biggest gathering of the metals industry, brought a cautiously upbeat tone to metals markets this year. While macro uncertainty, particularly around China-US trade negotiations, continues to cloud near-term demand, participants broadly see a turning point as physical tightness and supply disruptions come into focus

Market Rotation Hits Commodities: Precious Metals Slump, Oil Steadies on SPR Plans, Sugar Slides on Supply Outlook

Spot gold prices sold off aggressively yesterday as participants took profits in a market that has been extremely overbought

ront-End Stagnation and Long-End Shifts: Diverging Dynamics in Euro and US Yield Curves

The current risks are towards more ECB easing, but because medium-term risks are tilted to the upside, we think markets will remain firmly anchored around a 1.75% landing zone. In the US, the ultra front end has a tight feel to it, while longer tenor yields have a more loose tendency. We identify some technical factors driving this

EUR Seen at Fair Value as Market Focus Shifts to US Credit Risks

The eurozone calendar is empty until Friday’s PMI and EUR/USD moves will primarily depend on market sentiment about the US credit market. What is important to note is that EUR/USD is spot on its short-term fair value (1.167) despite the recent rally.

China’s 3Q25 GDP Beats Expectations Amid Weak Consumption and Property Slump

Chinese GDP slowed by less than expected in the third quarter amid the boost from external demand. With China on track to hit this year's growth target, we could see less policy urgency. But weak confidence translating to soft consumption, investment, and a worsening property price downturn still need to be addressed

Commodities Weekly: Gold and Silver Hit Record Highs While Oil and Gas Face Inventory Pressure

Gold and silver hit another record high this morning, topping the all-time peak set just yesterday

USD Reclaims Safe-Haven Status Amid Global Uncertainty; CEE Currencies Hold Steady

Markets are quite clearly rethinking popular short-USD trades, but further gains may prove harder to sustain unless markets start to price out Fed easing. With the US CPI report reportedly being published next week, we actually see a good chance an October cut will be greenlighted. Today, keep an eye on more French news and Canada’s jobs numbers

Oil Falls on Ceasefire Hopes and Rising US Inventories; Copper Climbs on Tight Supply; Cocoa Drops Amid Weak Demand

The oil market came under some pressure this morning after reports of a potential breakthrough on the Middle East peace deal. Higher oil inventory in the US further added to the pressure on oil prices

Gold Surges Past $4,000 as Safe-Haven Demand Soars; Oil and Agriculture Markets Await Key Data

Spot gold extended its rally to top $4,000/oz for the first time this morning, as concerns over the US economy and a government shutdown boost demand for safe havens  

Commodities Update: Oil Rises on OPEC’s Cautious Output Hike, Gold Hits Record High, Coffee Extends Rally

The oil market opened higher in the early trading session today following a modest output hike from OPEC+ for November 2025. Meanwhile, gold continued its rally to new record highs amid the prolonged US shutdown

Eurozone Inflation: Stable Core Amid Temporary Energy Spike

The pickup in inflation to 2.2% in September was mainly due to energy effects, which will fade in the months ahead. A small undershooting of the inflation target actually seems realistic around the turn of the year. Expect the ECB to hold rates steady for now

RBA Holds Rates Steady Amid Inflation Concerns, AUD Outlook Remains Strong

The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its cash rate steady at 3.6%, in line with expectations. The cautious stance reflects concern over rising headline CPI inflation. As it stands, we think the probability of a rate cut at the November meeting has meaningfully diminished. The Aussie dollar remains supported

Italian Confidence Indicators Signal Stabilisation but Recovery Remains Fragile

Following a second quarter still heavily impacted by the introduction of new US tariffs, early data for the third quarter points to a very mild improvement, though sectoral contributions remain uneven. Today’s confidence indicators for September appear to support this view

Markets Weigh Fed Outlook Ahead of Core PCE: Dollar Strength, Yield Rebound, and Gold Resilience

Uh oh — that US growth report yesterday was just a bit too strong for investors' liking. On the surface, strong GDP should be good news but the problem is, such strong growth doesn't support further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, and it could even boost inflation expectations on top of potential tariff-led pressures. Understandably, October rate cut expectations took a hit after the GDP release.

Energy Markets Weigh Trump’s Oil Remarks, US Gas Storage Build, and EU LNG Risks

Henry hub natural gas extended declines yesterday after the US reported above-average natural gas inventory injections over the last week. Total gas stockpiles remain above the five-year average, weighing on sentiment

US Retail Sales Beat Forecasts in August Amid Modest Industrial Gains

August US nominal retail sales rose more strongly than anticipated, but volume growth remains range-bound with consumers wary of potential tariff-induced price hikes and broadening evidence of a cooling jobs market

Gold Hits Record High, Oil Steady, Coffee Surges on Supply Concerns

Gold continues to rally to fresh record highs amid growing expectations that the US Fed will cut rates this week. Here's what's happening in the commodity space

Global Markets Outlook: Fed Cuts Priced In, France Downgrade, Commodities Firm, and Asian Tech Rally

The week kicks off on a slightly positive note after last week's softer-than-expected US inflation data paved the way for a rate cut on Wednesday. Combined with signs of a rapidly deteriorating US jobs market, investors now expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin a series of cuts this week.

Gold Surges to Record High Amid Dollar Weakness and Central Bank Demand

The week started slowly in the US and Canada as markets were closed for the Labour Day holiday.

Bank of England: November Rate Cut Likely Despite Inflation Risks and Fiscal Uncertainty

Unlike financial markets, we still think the odds are tilted slightly in favour of another Bank of England rate cut in November. Nothing is guaranteed, though, and these are the key data points that will decide the fate of the Bank's easing cycle later this year

Germany Hits Three Million Unemployed: Labour Market Faces Prolonged Weakness

The number of unemployed people has increased above the three-million mark for the first time since 2015, providing further evidence that a long period of economic stagnation eventually takes a toll on the labour market

Hungary’s Labour Market Holds Steady Amid Seasonal Boost and Rising Wage Pressures

Hungary's recent labour market data shows a seasonal improvement, resulting in a record-high employment rate. The situation for employers is growing hotter as wage expectations remain high, but the economy struggles to thrive

Gold Gains on Fed Dovishness and Safe-Haven Demand Amid Fed Independence Concerns

The recent price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have started to trade firmer since last Friday, 22 August, with a gain of 1%, on increased hopes that the US Federal Reserve is likely to enact its first interest rate cut of 2025 in the next month's FOMC meeting.

Oil Prices Rally on Russian Supply Fears Amid Tariff Uncertainty; WTI Tests Key Technical Levels

Oil prices dropped by over 1% after they had risen by almost 2% on Monday to start the week on the front foot. Traders are watching the war in Ukraine and the possibility of interruptions to Russia's oil supply.

Brent crude oil fell by $1.08, or 1.57%, to $67.72 per barrel. It had reached its highest price since early August just a day earlier. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil also dropped, losing $1.13, or about 1.74%, to $63.67.

Hungary: Wage Growth Surprises to the Upside, but Consumer Confidence Remains Key

Although real wage growth was strong in June, it has not yet returned to the double-digit levels seen in previous years. We expect negative perceptions of household finances to persist. Weak consumer confidence continues to be a problem for the economy

Oil Boosts NOK as USD Weakens; Markets Watch China Tariffs and PMIs

Hopes for a swift resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have proven vain. Discussions between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy yielded no breakthrough, with market expectations for a 2025 ceasefire dropping from around 40% to below 25%.

NZD Steadies After Powell’s Dovish Signal and Strong Retail Sales

The New Zealand dollar has steadied on Monday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.562, down 0.07% on the day. On Friday, the New Zealand dollar shot up 0.82%, its best one-day performance since June.

Powell’s Dovish Turn Fuels Risk Rally, Lifts Equities and Boosts Chinese Tech Stocks

Investors lapped up Jerome Powell's words like honey on Friday, as the man has apparently been troubled enough by the latest weakness in jobs numbers to say that this situation "suggests that downside risks to employment are rising" and that "if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment." And no one wants that to happen – especially after heavy criticism from the White House pointing at Powell as Mr. Too Late.

Oil and Gas Markets Face Geopolitical Risks, Tariffs, and Supply Shifts

Oil prices are set to finish this week higher as hopes for an imminent ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine fade

Gold Holds Steady as Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks and Fed Outlook Drive Market Focus

Gold prices have rallied from an overnight low around the $3323/oz handle to a high of $3360/oz before settling around the $3350/oz mark.The precious metal looks set to continue its choppy price action at the start of a busy week.

The recovery in Gold from the overnight low could in part be down to lower US Treasury Yields with the benchmark 10Y US Treasury yield falling from its recent highs.

Commodities Mixed as Oil Awaits Zelensky-Putin Talks, China Steel Slumps, and Grain Imports Collapse

Oil prices are lower this morning following Trump-Zelensky talks, with focus now turning to a possible meeting between the Ukrainian leader and Russian President Putin

Oil and Gas Markets Weighed Down by Sanction Risks and Bearish Fundamentals

Oil opened lower this morning amid reduced concerns over tougher sanctions against Russia following the Trump-Putin summita

Three Key Challenges Facing Jay Powell at Jackson Hole

The great-and-the-good of the American central banking world are off to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference. And for Chair Jerome Powell, his appearance could hardly come at a more challenging moment. James Smith looks at the key questions facing the embattled Fed boss as financial markets brace for another fiery week to come

Oil Falls Below $66 as Bearish Supply Outlook Weighs, Market Eyes Trump-Putin Meeting

Oil prices came under pressure yesterday after bearish supply/demand forecasts for the market. There’s also plenty of uncertainty heading into Friday’s Trump-Putin summit

Silver Poised for Bullish Continuation Above $39.53, Key Support at $37.00

This is a follow-up analysis and update of our prior report, Chart of the day – Potential bullish acceleration for Silver (XAG/USD) published on 18 June 2025.

Silver (XAG/USD) has staged the expected rally of 7.1% from 18 June 2025 to hit the predefined resistance of US$39.08 (printed a 14-year high of US$39.53 on 23 July) before it staged a corrective decline of -8.39% to hit an intraday low of US$36.21 on 31 July 2025.

OPEC Sees Tighter 2026 Oil Market; WASDE Report Bearish for Corn, Bullish for Soybeans

Despite some short-term supportive factors for the market, oil prices continue to edge lower ahead of Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting

Oil Under Pressure as Markets Await Trump-Putin Talks and US CPI Data

The energy commodity hasn't had its best performance this year. Oil got caught in the mix of many geopolitical headwinds between large supply from OPEC+ for internal reorganization (they want to force out some producing countries of the organization), Russia flooding the Market to pay for its war, downward revised global outlooks and tensions in the Middle East.

Norway’s Inflation and Weak Krone Support Pause in Rate Cuts, NOK Seen Recovering

Norway’s central bank surprised with a cut in June. However, we are much more confident that it will keep rates on hold at this week’s meeting, following a rebound in inflation and a significant weakening of the krone. We believe EUR/NOK is approaching an inflection point and anticipate NOK strengthening into year-end

WTI Reversal Signals Deeper Decline as Inventories Rise and Sanctions May Ease

The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market has faded, taking a back seat after a four-week, 30% parabolic rally in West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude futures) during the initial phase of the Israel-Iran conflict.

Global Commodities in Focus: Markets React to Potential Trump-Putin Meeting and Trade Shifts

Oil prices settled lower yesterday amid growing hopes that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet to discuss a Russia-Ukraine peace deal

India, Tariffs, and the Future of Russian Oil: Will the Market Rebalance?

Oil prices have not reacted to President Trump slapping an additional 25% tariff on India over its purchases of Russian oil, possibly believing there's still room for negotiation

Repricing the Cycle: Policy Easing Likely to Start Sooner and Go Further

We're changing our call on the Fed. The pressure to cut rates is intensifying as the US jobs market and the growth story are no longer looking quite so solid. While prices will rise due to tariffs, we don't see long-term inflationary pressures and believe the Fed may well start cutting rates from next month 

Upgrades and Catalysts Across Sectors: Tariff Resilience, Rate Tailwinds, and AI-Driven Momentum Fuel Bullish Revisions

We are upgrading W to Buy. We had downgraded to Neutral after initial tariff announcements and missed real upside, but still upgrade to Buy as the tariff macro has been less of an impact than expected, execution has continued (we never doubted this), and Wayfair has demonstrated that it’s very well positioned to capture share amidst market disruption. 

OPEC+ Supply Hike Marks Turning Point as Demand Outlook Softens

Oil prices are trading weaker this morning after OPEC+ agreed on another large supply hike for September

Oil Rises on Russian Peace Deadline and Threat of US Tariffs on Indian Imports

Oil prices strengthened further after President Trump threatened penalties on India for importing Russian energy. Meanwhile, Comex copper prices plunged after the US provided new details about its 50% import tariffs, which for now only apply to semi-finished copper products

Copper Market Reels as 50% US Import Levies Trigger Supply Glut

Comex copper plunged by more than 19% in minutes after President Trump excluded refined metal from his planned import tariff. The 19% fall on Wednesday was the largest intraday fall on record. Prices later pared some of the losses

Oil Markets on Edge: Trump Ultimatum Raises Risk of Russian Supply Shock

The Commodities Feed: Oil rallies as Trump confirms new deadline for Russia. Oil prices extended their rally yesterday as President Trump confirmed that he will give Russia 10 days to reach a truce with Ukraine