The increase you see with one fill-up
Since the beginning of July, the average price of gasoline has risen by 1.47 zlotys per liter. Diesel has become even more expensive, up by 1.75 zlotys. Filling a 50‑liter tank now costs 73.50 zlotys and 87.50 zlotys more, respectively, than just a few weeks earlier. In the last week alone, Pb95 increased by almost 30 groszy, and diesel by 37 groszy. Both fuels quickly moved away from the 7‑zloty level, which still seemed a psychological threshold. Now drivers look anxiously toward the eight.
Many factors contributed to the rise. First, the VAT was increased from 8% to 23%. Next, the conflict in the Middle East has driven up oil prices on the exchange. Additionally, a weaker zloty has increased the cost of purchases settled in dollars. The result is gasoline, which we pay 25% more for than a year ago.
Diesel found itself in a bind
The toughest situation concerns owners of diesel‑engine cars. Brent crude has surpassed 100 dollars per barrel, and analysts warn that a blockade of the Red Sea could push the price up to 120 dollars.
Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries limit the supply of diesel on the European market.
A ton of diesel on the London ICE cost nearly 1,300 dollars, half more than a month earlier. High production margins increase the profits of the conglomerates, but for the driver they end up as another change of digits at the station.
As Bankier emphasizes, Orlen offered Ekodiesel at 6,565 zlotys per cubic meter. Adding the 23% VAT brought the price to about 8.07 zlotys per liter, even before accounting for retail realities.
Over three weeks, the wholesale price rose by 1.30 zlotys per liter. Exceeding eight zlotys at stations therefore looks less like a risk and more like the next stage of increases.
Cheaper refueling requires a political decision
Gasoline on the New York exchange stays above 3.30 dollars per gallon, oil remains expensive, and a strong dollar further burdens the domestic fuel market.
In the short term, the only indicated way to noticeably reduce bills remains a return to 8% VAT. At that rate, Pb95 could cost about 6.60 zlotys per liter, and diesel about 7.40 zlotys. This is the most likely scenario to see lower prices again.
