Geopolitical risk is still factored into every barrel, keeping oil prices at high levels that a quarter ago seemed like a black‑swallow scenario for the global economy.
Prices on the edge, i.e. Brent and WTI still above $100 per barrel
Brent oil price on May 13 stands at $107 per barrel, while WTI oil remains at $101 per barrel.
This is a clear signal that investors, trading algorithms, and companies fear supply continuity. In this context, the disappearance of Iranian exports from Kharg Island is not just a geopolitical curiosity but a potential catalyst for another oil price rally. This will also affect jet fuel prices, which are already breaking records. Unfortunately, nothing indicates that negotiations will quickly end the war. The second Afghanistan scenario is becoming increasingly realistic, partly confirmed by President Donald Trump’s decision to double the defense budget.
Nevertheless, among American society, Democrats, and even some Republicans, frustration is mounting. This is also clearly visible in Trump’s own statements, where he bluntly says he is not interested in American portfolios, only that Iran does not have access to nuclear weapons.
Chart. Futures contract price for Brent oil.
Source: Trading Economics
WTI oil price broke the $100 barrier, while reports from Iran do not signal a quick return to that psychological threshold.
Chart. Futures contract price for WTI (West Texas Intermediate)
Source: Trading Economics
See also: Oil price has done it for the fifth day in a row! Fuel markets just wait for Trump’s signal
Satellite silence over Kharg Island
Data from European Sentinel‑2 satellites, processed by Bloomberg, shed new light on what is happening behind the scenes of Iran’s oil sector. The terminal on Kharg Island, the country’s export heart, currently looks like a ghost town. On May 8, 9, and 11 no ocean tankers were recorded there. This is the longest pause in loading since the war began on February 28.
Statistics do not lie – over 74 days of conflict satellites saw clear skies over Kharg for 33 days. Only twice before (early March and mid‑April) were the docks empty, but never for so long. For market analysts this is a red‑flag signal of supply chain delays that cannot be ignored. Iran, which has so far deftly evaded sanctions and blockades, apparently has hit a wall.
See also: Stock market euphoria and WIG20 rally. Oil back above $100
The mystery of the leak and US Navy blockade
Behind these reports come reports of technical problems at the Iranian terminal. According to New York Times reports (citing May 6 images) a leak of about 3,000 barrels occurred. Tehran denies it, and later satellite images do not give a clear answer whether an ecological disaster happened or it is just a media cover‑up of the terminal’s paralysis.
The real cause of the standstill seems to be the steel grip of the US Navy. Since mid‑April Iranian units cannot leave the Persian Gulf without the risk of boarding or attack. Tankers have stopped being transport means for this reason and have become floating warehouses. The fleet anchored east of Kharg Island grew from just 3 units (April 11) to at least 18 VLCC tankers (May 11). That is a gigantic amount of frozen capital that not only does not reach the market but also pumps up oil prices.
The Donald Trump administration already boasts the success of its “maximum pressure” strategy. According to estimates from the analytical firm Kpler, Tehran has until the end of May – after that there will be no room even for one barrel.
See also: WIG20 fell 1.88%, mWIG40 1.10%. Oil rises, but Orlen shares fall
Source: Bloomberg.
