Impasse on the Washington-Tehran line
Representatives of Iran and Oman met over the weekend to discuss issues related to the capacity of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, reported.
The talks were described as "constructive" and led to "some progress" in easing tensions between Washington and Tehran.
However, no details of the agreements were disclosed.
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While the United States seeks to limit Iran's ability to launch attacks on commercial vessels, investors fear further escalation of the conflict and additional decisions by Donald Trump.
Iranian armed forces spokesperson, Mohammad Akraminia, warned that "if Americans insist on continuing the war and raids, the area of military operations will expand".
A few days ago, the U.S. President expressed uncertainty about ending the conflict in the Middle East, considering, as Axios confirmed, a "massive attack" on Iran.
We wrote more about this in the article: The dollar rate carries risk! Experts warn. Trump is preparing another blow to Iran, Axios claims.
According to information provided by Axios, Admiral Brad Cooper, the highest-ranking U.S. commander responsible for operations in the Middle East, reportedly recommended halting further attacks, arguing that "they have reached the limit of their effectiveness".
In recent days, Trump was reportedly willing to resume military operations before his stance changed.
Read also: The dollar rate on a long road to 4 PLN? Expert issued forecasts for USD/PLN and EUR/USD. "The dollar may gain"
See also: Will the dollar surprise again? Expert issued a forecast for USD/PLN and EUR/USD. "I find it hard to believe there will be no more fires"
Dollar and euro rates on Monday, July 27
The dollar to zloty rate on Monday, July 27 is at 3,77 PLN.
Maciej Przygórzewski, chief currency expert at Currency One, told FXMAG which factors currently influence the main currency pairs.
"In my view, the key for dollar rates will be clarifying the situation in the Persian Gulf. The more tensions, the better for the dollar at the expense of the euro or zloty", he said.
The expert emphasized that last week's dollar strengthening was due to several significant events and did not result solely from escalation of tensions on the USA–Iran line.
First, these are expectations regarding interest rate hikes at next week's meeting.
"Here, of course, there are great labor market data published on Thursday (very low unemployment benefit claims), but it is clear that the decision on hikes seems inevitable. The question is only whether it will be July or September," he stated.
Second, we still have the final ECB conference.
"Investors had high expectations. Ms. Christine Lagarde approached the conference very cautiously. She did not ignore the threats in the form of conflict escalation in the Middle East, but strongly relied on macroeconomic data. That played in favor of the dollar. The market believes much more in U.S. hikes than in those in the euro zone," he added.
Chart. Dollar to zloty rate (USD/PLN)
Source: Trading Economics.
The euro to dollar rate reaches 1,14 USD.
Chart. Euro to dollar rate (EUR/USD)
Source: Trading Economics.
Read also: Dollar rate before the chance to break out? Expert: "Capital will flow back to USD again"
See also: Dollar rate before a "nervous and dynamic" move, euro waiting for a drop? Expert issued forecast for USD/PLN and EUR/USD
Sources: Bloomberg, Axios.
