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Emerging Market Focus: Inflation and Economic Indicators Shape Monetary Policy Outlook

Emerging Market Focus: Inflation and Economic Indicators Shape Monetary Policy Outlook
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Russia

Inflation data on Wednesday is expected to show pressures heating up which may explain why the CBR has been hinting that the next interest rate move may be higher rather than lower. The extent to which the CPI number rises will likely determine the urgency with which the central bank will respond. The rouble remains under pressure and rate hikes may help to address both problems.

South Africa

No major economic data or events next week. Manufacturing production and the business confidence survey are the only notable releases.

Turkey

The lira remains under immense pressure after the government abandoned its unsustainable and unconventional policy of monetary easing and market interventions, which triggered an enormous spike in inflation. Inflation eased slightly last month but that won’t likely last as the currency has fallen to new record lows. Data next week include unemployment, industrial production, and current account. 

Switzerland

No major releases or events next week, with PPI on Friday as the only thing on the calendar


Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.


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