One market, several factors. Expert says what’s next for USD, EUR and PLN
The dollar’s rate against the zloty has been attempting to rise toward 3,80 PLN since the beginning of the week, ultimately settling a few groszy below that threshold.
Maciej Przygórzewski, chief currency expert at Currency One, operator of InternetowyKantor.pl and Walutomat.pl, explained in an interview with FXMAG which events in the near future will shape currency pairs such as USD/PLN, EUR/USD and EUR/PLN.
As the analyst pointed out, prospects for major currencies depend on at least several factors, among which is the development of the situation in the Middle East.
“The United States is constantly trying, wasting billions of taxpayer dollars and killing not only regime representatives but many civilians, to get close to the conditions they had before the start of this conflict,” he said.
If we witness the continuation of this war, which has already been won dozens of times, we should expect the dollar to strengthen against both the euro and the zloty.
The closer we get to peace, which is currently far away in the Middle East, the more favorable the euro should look. The Polish zloty is rather tied to the euro, so escalation clearly hinders us.
Another important issue from the perspective of the currency market remains monetary policy, especially expectations regarding the level of interest rates.
“It’s worth mentioning two banks. On one hand the American, on the other the Polish. It’s still unclear whether we should expect one or two rate hikes in this cycle in the USA. The new Fed president makes forecasting harder, but the more the war escalates in the Persian Gulf, the closer we should be to the second hike,” said Maciej Przygórzewski.
“This is another signal strengthening the dollar and weakening the zloty,” he added.
The Polish economy is in a specific position. The door to September rate cuts seems partially open. Fortunately, we will learn a lot at Adam Glapiński’s press conference. It is also the last conference this summer, as the August meeting is not decisive; the next time RPP members will meet in real terms in September.
The closer we get to cuts, the weaker the Polish zloty will be—he summed up.
Also read: Will the dollar’s rate continue its long journey to 4 PLN? The expert issued forecasts for USD/PLN and EUR/USD. “The dollar could gain”
See also: Will the dollar surprise again? The expert issued a forecast for USD/PLN and EUR/USD. “It’s hard for me to believe there will be no more fires”
Dollar to zloty rate on Thursday, July 9
The dollar to zloty rate on Thursday, July 9 is at 3,76 PLN (-0.21%).
Chart. Dollar to zloty rate (USD/PLN)
Source: Trading Economics.
The euro to dollar rate reaches 1,14 USD (+0.13%).
Chart. Euro to dollar rate (EUR/USD)
Source: Trading Economics.
The euro to zloty rate broke the level 4,30 PLN (-0.08%).
Chart. Euro to zloty rate (EUR/PLN)
Source: Trading Economics.
Also read: Dollar before the chance to break out? Expert: “Capital will flow back to USD”
See also: Dollar before a “nervous and dynamic” move, euro waiting for a drop? Expert issued a forecast for USD/PLN and EUR/USD
