Euro rate - forecast for the coming days
Expectations of de-escalation also support the zloty, which is trading at 4.3053, very close to yesterday's close. Today's NBP president conference may be significant from the perspective of domestic assets.
Possible easing of the narrative could trigger further rises in EUR/PLN, although we assume no significant changes.
In the morning, the dollar weakens against the euro, the EUR/USD rate broke the local resistance level 1.1430, which could support a rise to around 1.1462.
In the case of the bond market, Trump's de-escalation comments may favor stability of yields in the first half of the session.
Geopolitics dominated the domestic market on Wednesday. The decision to keep interest rates unchanged was widely expected, and the announcement and new macroeconomic projection did not significantly affect the valuation of domestic assets.
However, D. Trump's statements and the resulting rises in energy commodity prices led to higher risk aversion. As a result, the zloty weakened significantly against both the euro and the dollar.
. The EUR/PLN rate rose before noon by more than 1.5 grosz reaching a temporary 4.3167, the highest level since November 2024.
In the second half of the session, there was a retraction and at the European close the pair traded at 4.3049 (0.2% above Tuesday's close).
USD/PLN rate up
The USD/PLN rate also rose, closing the session in European hours at 3.7742. The weakening of domestic debt continued. The yield on the 10‑year Polish bond rose by 9 basis points to 5.40%, reflecting movements in base markets. Sentiment on the GPW was neutral despite escalation in the Persian Gulf and falls on European exchanges.
Yesterday's session on international financial markets was marked by escalation in the Middle East. Overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday, the US attacked more than 80 targets in Iran in response to Iranian shelling of three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces also attacked US bases in the region. As a result, energy commodities were already expensive at the opening of the session.
Large volatility appeared however after the morning statement by D. Trump, in which he said that the agreement with Iran no longer applies. Brent crude rose to 79.2 USD/bbl and TTF natural gas to 49.6 EUR/MWh.
In the afternoon there was a slight retraction, but volatility remained elevated. Escalation in the Persian Gulf triggered a global risk‑off (increased risk aversion), which translated into currency and bond markets. Before noon, the dollar strengthened against the euro.
EUR/USD fell by about 0.4 cent
The EUR/USD rate fell by about 0.4 cent, and in the second half of the day it consolidated in the 1.1395‑1.1415 channel. Finally, the European part of the session ended at 1.1409 (a 0.2% drop from Tuesday's close). In base bond markets, there was a deepening of the discount, resulting from the return of concerns about the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz and energy commodity prices.
The yield on 10‑year US bonds rose by 7 basis points to 4.58%, and German bonds by 10 basis points to 3.08%. European stock indices also fell. Slightly better sentiment prevailed on US exchanges, where the scale of falls was limited despite the ongoing correction of semiconductor companies.
