It is difficult to assess the navigability of the route because tankers hide their positions, yet this morning commodity prices rose quite sharply. Brent crude is at 79.2 USD, wiping out the declines from the second half of last week.
TTF natural gas has been rising for three weeks and this morning was 50.5 EUR/MWh. Higher energy commodities increase risk aversion, which translates into a stronger dollar and thus a weaker zloty and other emerging market currencies.
The EUR/PLN rate was 4.3325 in the morning, and USD/PLN 3.8006.
The EUR/USD rate fell to 1.1399, breaking local support levels. If no new information emerges, moves may continue, and the yield on domestic bonds is likely to rise in the first half of the session.
In the afternoon, market attention may shift to statements from Fed and ECB central bankers.
The EUR/PLN rate temporarily reached 4.35
The Friday session in the domestic market ran in the shadow of the Thursday conference of NBP President A. Glapiński. Geopolitics and energy commodity markets fell to the background, especially since price changes were not significant on Friday.
Shortly after the opening, the zloty weakened again (the first weakening occurred on Thursday immediately after the conference).
The EUR/PLN rate temporarily reached 4.35. However, in the afternoon the direction changed and the pair erased the morning gains.
At the close of the session in European hours, EUR/PLN was 4.334, slightly higher than Thursday’s close. USD/PLN closed the European part of the session at 3.7924.
The halt in zloty weakness was probably due to an ineffective test of the strong psychological level of 4.35 for EUR/PLN.
The appetite for further zloty discount also dwindled with statements from members of the Monetary Policy Council H. Wnorowski and L. Kotecki. The former said he "sees little chance of cuts, and if any, certainly no more than one (a cut in 2026)". Kotecki is traditionally a bit more dovish and sees room for discussion on cuts later in the year.
He also notes a range of risks and does not treat cuts as "hot". The yields on domestic bonds were less volatile than zloty prices and did not react to statements from the MPC members. The yield on the 10‑year Polish bond stayed in consolidation throughout the session, supported by stabilization of base debt markets, and closed at 5.30% (1 basis point higher than Thursday’s close). Positive sentiment prevailed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, with both the WIG20 and the broader WIG rising.
The EUR/USD bounces off resistance, fighting the 1.1460 level
International markets were calmer and under technical influences. The end of the exchange of fire in the Persian Gulf slightly dampened negative sentiment, and the sparse macro data calendar and ongoing summer season limited volatility.
During the Asian session, before the European opening, the dollar weakened against the euro, but later the EUR/USD fell after bouncing off the resistance level around 1.1460. At the close of the European session it was 1.1426.
Stabilization also occurred in base debt markets. Bond yields consolidated below mid‑week highs. At the European close, the US 10‑year was 4.55% (1 basis point lower than Thursday’s close), and the German was 3.04% (2 basis points lower than Thursday’s close).
Global exchanges showed increased volatility due to SK Hynix’s debut on Nasdaq, but by the European close it was hard to identify a clear direction of moves.
