EUR/PLN rate rose to 4.3010, and USD/PLN 3.7658
Due to the continuation of hostilities in the Persian Gulf (the US attacked targets in Iran, Iran targeted US bases in the region), energy commodity prices are rising to levels not seen in two weeks.
Brent crude oil in the morning costs 76.52 USD per barrel, and TTF natural gas – 48.6 euros per MWh. This is a factor limiting risk appetite, which may have contributed to the overnight depreciation of the zloty.
EUR/PLN rate rose to 4.3010, and USD/PLN 3.7658. The area around 4.30 is a key resistance zone for the EUR/PLN pair. A possible break above 4.31 could open the way to further gains.
In consolidation, however, EUR/USD remains, but greater volatility could be provided by the release of the minutes from the June Fed meeting. With higher commodity prices, the discount on base debt continues, which may push Polish government bond yields higher, especially at the opening and in the first half of the session.
Just as on Monday, yesterday's domestic session was quite calm, and investors awaited the outcome of the MPC meeting. At the start of the session, the zloty weakened against base currencies.
Zloty under commodity pressure. The Strait of Hormuz raises Polish bond yields
EUR/PLN before noon ineffectively tested the local resistance level around 4.2960, then consolidated in the 4.2915-4.2950 channel for the rest of the session.
Only at the end of the day did the zloty weaken again, and the EUR/PLN closed the European part of the session at 4.2970, 0.1% higher than on Monday.
Yesterday's day looked similar for the USD/PLN pair, but in this case the rate did not reach resistance levels. At the European close, USD/PLN recorded 3.7594.
The slight weakening of the zloty may have been due to a modest rise in energy commodity prices in response to attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
Likely movements in energy commodity markets caused an increase in domestic bond yields, which partially accounted for the weakening of base bonds, but in Poland the scale of the movement was somewhat larger.
The yield of the Polish 10-year bond rose by 6 basis points during the day, to 5.30%. Volatility of domestic stock indices was limited, with no clear direction of change.
