Global markets are trading in a slightly nervous fashion as they brace themselves for a potential correction in US tech stocks. So far, the correction has been modest compared to the 25% fall in bitcoin, but events over the next 24 hours will have a say in whether moves extend. We'll have FOMC minutes, Nvidia earnings and the September jobs reporta
Yesterday's PMI showed a mixed picture in the region, with the Czech Republic's lower-than-expected, while Poland and Hungary surprised with higher-than-expected readings. Inflation in Turkey surprised the market lower (2.6%/32.9%), in line with our estimate, and inflation returned to a declining trajectory.
We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut rates by 25bp on 8 October, in line with consensus and pricing. Markets are betting on two more cuts after October, which looks a bit premature having not yet seen third-quarter CPI data. Dovish bets suggest downside risks for NZD are reduced into year-end
US markets turned slightly bullish into quarter-end – and the government shutdown. As a result, key directional cues from official data around jobs and prices will be delayed. Eurozone preliminary inflation data is unlikely to provide markets with more clarity on the direction of travel
US Treasuries traded heavy on Monday, on a day of complexities and different cross winds that makes interpretation tough. Bunds remain a good safe asset to hide for any US-driven turmoil, which can help keep yields close to swaps. Whilst we still see Bunds underperform swaps due to supply pressures, the room is more limited since 'Liberation Day'
The US Dollar is starting the week on a steadier footing after lagging through much of last week, weighed down by a string of underwhelming US data releases.
The decline in Egypt’s annual headline CPI number for February was exceptionally large at over 12pp, but it did not really tell us anything that we did not already know.
Stocks advanced as cooler-than- expected inflation data helped stanch a sharp selloff, while the escalation of U.S. President Donald Trump's chaotic, multi-front tariff war kept gains in check.
The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 ended higher, while the dollar strengthened as cooler-than-expected inflation data calmed tariff concerns. Meanwhile, Treasury yields gained on potential inflationary impact of global trade war. Oil prices jumped on lower-than- expected oil and fuel inventories in the U.S. Safe-haven gold rose.
Wall Street plunged and Treasury yields fell on recession fears, triggered by relentless tariff wrangling and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies. Economic growth and demand concerns weighed on oil prices too. The dollar weakened against the Japanese yen. Gold dropped on profit booking.
Nvidia's upbeat quarterly forecast signaled that the AI boom is not over, but it failed to bring buyers back into the "Magnificent Seven" stocks that have dipped in the last three months.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended sharply lower, weighed down by a slump in chipmaker Nvidia after its quarterly report failed to rekindle Wall Street's AI rally, while investors focused on data pointing to a cooling U.S. economy.
