Retail sales data support for the PLN!
The fundamental support for the zloty came from domestic retail sales data, which rose 6.2% year‑over‑year in constant prices in June, clearly surpassing economists’ consensus of 5.1%. The reading confirmed the strength of domestic consumer demand and backed our estimates that GDP in 2Q26 grew almost 4% year‑over‑year. Such a result would strengthen Poland’s position as one of the EU’s growth leaders in 2026.
However, the potential for zloty appreciation was effectively limited by a tight external environment. Brent crude prices rose for another consecutive day, reaching 95 USD/barrel during the session and further pressuring inflation expectations.
Euro rate – forecast for the coming days
On Thursday the most important market event will be the ECB meeting. Although a rate hike is unlikely this time, market participants will be drawn to the bank’s press conference.
The market is almost fully pricing in two rate hikes in 2H26, so a hawkish tone from President Christine Lagarde would not be a surprise in our view.
The appearance of dovish accents could, however, cool market expectations and thus slightly widen the expected NBP–ECB rate differential in favor of the zloty.
Potential strengthening of the PLN could still be offset by further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
Our baseline scenario therefore remains the stabilization of major pair rates with the zloty near current levels, with asymmetric risk of testing this year’s highs.
Interest rate market
On the domestic interest rate market, the Wednesday session brought further increases in treasury yields, aided by rising energy and agricultural commodity prices.
A slightly negative impact on securities valuations also came from a higher-than‑expected June retail sales reading, and likely signals indicating a possibility of a looser fiscal policy in Poland than the market assumes.
Upward trend in Polish bond yields
Reports suggesting escalation of the Middle East conflict may support the upward trend in Polish bond yields in the short term. Importantly, further technical resistance levels are clearly above current levels, so there is currently no significant factor that could weaken the strong market momentum.
At least in the first part of Thursday’s session, an additional burden on the debt market will be the regular Ministry of Finance auction, during which securities worth 7‑13 billion PLN will be offered. In worsening market sentiment conditions we expect sales of about 11 billion PLN.
Investor attention on Thursday will also be drawn to the ECB meeting, where the key topic will be the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy in the euro area. Central bank officials point to a clear rise in forecast inflation, the pro‑inflationary impact of rising energy prices, and the ongoing Middle East conflict.
Some of them believe these factors could justify another rate hike as early as September 10 to curb the risk of expectations detaching from inflation and the so‑called second‑round effects.
