Japan's stimulus package targets inflation stabilisation, strengthening defence and diplomacy, and sustainable growth. It should spur short-term growth and reduce inflation, but may put pressure on JGBs. The BoJ's policy normalisation will likely continue, though it faces challenges and may proceed at a slower pace
The Bank of Korea is expected to hold the rates steady. Meanwhile, data highlights include Chinese industrial profits, Tokyo inflation, Korean and Taiwanese industrial production and Indian GDP
Romania’s economy delivered a mild upside surprise in the third quarter. The flash estimate points to 1.6% annual growth, above our expectations, although it still contracted by 0.2% versus the previous quarter. Taken together, after nine months of 2025, the economy is 0.8% above the same period of 2024
China's key activity indicators continued to slow across the board in October as policymakers appear to be delaying further policy support. This year's growth target is likely to require minimal additional support to be reached, but supportive policies will be necessary to achieve long-term goals
This more than compensates for August’s fall, confirming that summer data has to be interpreted with a pinch of salt. Italy's industrial stagnation is not over yet, but the picture might improve marginally over the fourth quarter
China's deflation is expected to continue, while the government releases data on retail sales, fixed asset investment, and industrial production. South Korea will release the unemployment rate
It's the expected rebound in industrial production in September. However, it's a rebound which is too weak to mark any turnaround. Instead, even with some cyclical rebound in the making, structural weaknesses will put a lid on German industrial production for a while
Higher-than-expected Japanese inflation in October, together with improvements in production and retail sales, suggests growth is bottoming out toward quarter-end, while price pressures continue to intensify. The Bank of Japan may consider an earlier rate increase
August’s Italian production numbers suggest that a hoped-for timid improvement in the third quarter has not materialised. While some caveats should apply when dealing with summertime data, it would seem the onus now lies with a growth in services
Extremely disappointing industrial data in August has just increased the risk of yet another quarter of contraction for the German econom
August US nominal retail sales rose more strongly than anticipated, but volume growth remains range-bound with consumers wary of potential tariff-induced price hikes and broadening evidence of a cooling jobs market
South Korean manufacturing output, retail sales, and investment increased in July. As fiscal stimulus kicks in, activity is expected to strengthen further in the third quarter. But the boost could prove temporary as tariff headwinds curb exports and increase odds of a Bank of Korea rate cut
Eurozone economic data for the first half of the year has been distorted by US tariffs.
July's macro data bolsters the case for the National Bank of Poland to continue its monetary easing path. Growth in industry remains slow, construction is still stagnant, wage increases have eased, and the employment decline has deepened. We expect a 25bp cut in early September, with the policy rate falling to 4.25% at the end of 2025 from the current 5.00%
The industry's annual price drop deepened in July, marking six consecutive months of negative price trends. Weak demand from key trading partners continues to weigh on prices for capital and intermediate goods, while consumer goods prices are still rising. Strong price activity in food production will further drive up the CPI
Today’s flash GDP data has confirmed our forecast for the second quarter, with annual growth continuing to expand at a modest 0.3% pace. We don’t expect major improvements at this stage, with risks actually tilted to the downside, and we continue to expect a 0.3% advance for the full year in 2025
Asia week ahead: data to show uptick in inflation in South Korea and Indonesia. CPI data will be released in Indonesia, the Philippines, and South Korea next week. A rise in inflation is expected, driven by higher oil prices. Elsewhere, China is set to release its PMI and new export orders, while Japan will publish the Tankan survey and industrial production data
Japan: the weak JPY has turned from a problem to a nest egg . The level of JPY weakness has changed from a ‘problem’ to a ‘nest egg’ as the Trump administration’s tariff rate hikes require a buffer. With the buffer of a weaker JPY, the auto industry may be able to continue domestic production without having to raise prices significantly in the US in response to higher tariff rates.
At 0.61 (vs 0.77 last week) our Risk Index has retreated, indicating a little less investor risk aversion. The Index remains above its 100-day moving average, suggesting a sustained increase in risk aversion.
