China's Steel Output Declines: Impact on Metals Market

Metals – China's steel output falls

Copper, along with other major metals, edged higher yesterday following the release of strong industrial production numbers from China. China's industrial output rose 4.6% YoY in October (vs. market expectations of 4.4%), the strongest growth reported since April. Meanwhile, rising expectations of further stimulus from China provided a further boost to the complex.

Recent numbers from China’s National Bureau of Statistics show that monthly crude steel production fell 1.8% YoY to hit year-to-date lows at 79.1mt in October, as domestic mills reduced output amid falling profit margins, rising raw material costs and an uncertain demand outlook. The daily run rate at domestic mills averaged around 2.55mt last month - the lowest since December 2022. However, cumulative output in the first ten months of the year is still up 1.4% YoY to total 874.7mt. Among other metals, primary aluminium production rose 6% YoY and stayed near record highs at 3.62mt in October. This leaves cumulative output at 34.5mt, up 3.7% YoY. Primary aluminium production in China has started to recover in recent months with idled capacity in Yunnan brought back.