This more than compensates for August’s fall, confirming that summer data has to be interpreted with a pinch of salt. Italy's industrial stagnation is not over yet, but the picture might improve marginally over the fourth quarter
Romanian Inflation eased marginally in October to 9.8% versus September’s 9.9%. Declines in some food prices provided relief, but services inflation remains tricky. Wage growth slowed to just 4.1% in September, acting as a clear drag on demand. We maintain our year-end inflation forecasts at 9.6% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026
EUR/USD has held onto its gains this week – though that largely looks a function of the slightly softer dollar. Yesterday's release of the German ZEW expectations index for November was not particularly encouraging. However, the aggregate ZEW figure for the eurozone as a whole ticked up, questioning whether Germany is increasingly becoming an outlier.
The carry trade suffered a stress test yesterday, when one popular target currency, the Hungarian forint, had to cope with prospects of wider budget deficits. After selling off 0.7%, the forint is already coming back bid. With volatility expected to stay low, it's hard to see any major unwinds of carry strategies in the near term
We think markets are right to price in more Bank of England easing, but the upcoming budget on 26 November can still bring both bullish and bearish surprises. Meanwhile, concerns around the US job market are offsetting the positive impact of a likely government reopening on risk sentiment
The oil market rallied yesterday, boosted by the strength of the refined products market
South Korea’s jobless rate rose in October, but it remains below 3%. The Bank of Korea is expected to keep policy unchanged in November amid concerns about property risk and volatile foreign exchange markets
Inflation in Hungary showed signs of stagnation in October, yet this is still not a success story. With price pressures still above the central bank’s target, it is highly unlikely that we will see any interest rate cuts until autumn next year
Real retail sales growth came in weaker than expected, implying stagnation since April. This warrants some caution regarding the consumption outlook. Still, households have relatively strong resources which could support robust spending as the year approaches an end
Third-quarter GDP growth disappointed at 4.0% YoY, dragged down by weak investment and softer government spending, while exports provided temporary support. We downgrade our 2025 growth forecast to 4.7% (from 5.2%) as sentiment weakens and tariff headwinds loom, reinforcing our call for a 25bp central bank rate cut in December
It has been a mixed week for the dollar, where early-week strength finally eased a little yesterday on indications of softer US jobs data. Yet with the US government shutdown ongoing, we are still in the dark about the true labour market picture. Expect more $ consolidation and focus on regional stories such as soft China trade data and the Canada jobs release
Today's data is more evidence of the small rebound of the German economy after the summer. However, the September increase in exports is too weak to dispel concerns about persistent structural weakness
In the Eurozone, ECB’s Schnabel sees money market rates rising as system reserves decline, with banks then turning to the ECB for liquidity. It is part of the plan and could happen in mid-2026, but is more likely to happen later. Meanwhile, US Treasuries are being buffeted by contrasting impulses. It's been quite a week, but we broadly end where we started
China's deflation is expected to continue, while the government releases data on retail sales, fixed asset investment, and industrial production. South Korea will release the unemployment rate
Despite good ADP and ISM services data, the USD has corrected lower. With equities re-stabilising, the risks remain of further USD pullbacks after a rally that has exceeded what rate differentials can justify. Today, we see the BoE on hold despite mounting speculation of a pre-Budget cut. Norges Bank is likely to hold too, with low risks of guidance tweaks
Fed Chair Powell's reticence to cut in December remains a driver of sentiment. Nevertheless, Treasuries are interpreting the various crosswinds as supportive of a rise in yields. We don't think the Bank of England will cut, but markets are not fully convinced. Gilt yields have little room to move lower as the Budget risk premium has already fallen
It's the expected rebound in industrial production in September. However, it's a rebound which is too weak to mark any turnaround. Instead, even with some cyclical rebound in the making, structural weaknesses will put a lid on German industrial production for a while
As expected, NBP policymakers delivered their fourth consecutive 25bp rate cut in November, extending the scale of monetary easing this year to 150bp. Rate-setters reacted to lower current inflation, but may pause before a final adjustment to monetary policy. We see two more cuts in the first half of next year, with the target rate at 3.5-4% in 2026
In our latest update, we reassess our Hungarian economic and market forecasts at a time when we are still waiting for the end of stagnation and hoping for better days to come. The economy is starving for those order book fillings, and also a big dollop of extra confidence
Today marks the start of the US Supreme Court hearings regarding the legality of some of the US administration’s tariffs. A ruling is expected before the end of the year
Unlike the Fed or the Bank of England, the ECB looks to have more time before excess reserves reach levels where bigger shifts in banks' behaviour will become obvious. Recourse to the ECB facilities remains relatively low and upward pressure on short-term rates is still very gradual
EUR/USD continues to grind lower as it has for the last week. Rate differentials have not moved much at all this week and in fact have been mildly supportive for EUR/USD.
The risk mood has darkened a little this week, with some sizeable corrections emerging in some equity markets. There has not been one catalyst per se, but lofty valuations must be leading to some profit-taking in uncertain conditions. For today, it's all about the US ADP jobs release and what it means for the December Fed meeting. Expect FX to stay defensive
Treasuries are treading water, and really should have performed better on a risk-off Tuesday. But the 10yr seems content at above 4% for now. The 2yr has more open road to trek back down to 3.5%. Wednesday’s refunding announcement should be a box-ticking exercise. The plumbing of the money markets is where all the drama is - keep an eye on it
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has repeatedly warned of upside risks to inflation over the medium term, but this has not prevented the central bank from cutting rates as inflation moderates. Rate-setters have cut rates at each policy meeting since July, and we expect another 25bp cut on 5 November
Yesterday's PMI showed a mixed picture in the region, with the Czech Republic's lower-than-expected, while Poland and Hungary surprised with higher-than-expected readings. Inflation in Turkey surprised the market lower (2.6%/32.9%), in line with our estimate, and inflation returned to a declining trajectory.
The slew of post-meeting ECB speakers has added little to the policy narrative. The Governing Council is broadly on the same page with the rates view, and the feeling is that some substantial data surprises are now needed to create new division among policymakers.
FX markets are struggling to find direction this week. The Fed’s doubts on whether to cut in December naturally increase scrutiny of data: this means both depressed volatility during data silence and some potential exacerbation of USD reaction to any labour indicator (like tomorrow’s ADP). Our call remains that the dollar is close to its peak
US Treasury yields look like they want to nudge higher when they can. And why not, as corporate earnings are firm, and hard macro data is being kept under shutdown wraps. New lows in euro rate volatility help spreads on European government bonds (EGBs) tighten further. Given the spread tightness, Bunds look increasingly attractive as a risk hedge
The ISM manufacturing index suggests that the US industrial sector remains under pressure from weak growth and tariff-related uncertainty. The one consolation is that inflation pressures appear to be easing, but the Fed hawks will want to see broader evidence of this before backing a December rate cut
The UN climate conference in Belém has ignited a fierce debate and highlighted serious climate policy hurdles, before it has even begun. Despite these challenges, we see COP30 as a pivotal opportunity for meaningful boardroom conversations on carbon markets, sustainable finance and renewables
Conditions in manufacturing have deteriorated for the fourth consecutive month, which can undoubtedly be viewed as a negative signal for the economy when looking ahead. Although below the expansionary threshold, the PMI is nowhere near the depressed 2023 levels. Should the hard times continue, an adverse effect on growth in 2026 is a possibility
Affordability in the German real estate market remains strained. However, the recent surge in rents and a low homeownership ratio should still support the market
The Bank looks likely to keep rates on hold on 6 November, despite better inflation and wage news. The committee is deeply divided, and we don't expect clear signals on the Bank's next steps. But assuming the Autumn Budget goes as expected, a December rate cut now looks more likely than not
The dollar remains bid as the market continues to question whether the Fed needs to cut rates to 3.00/3.25% after all. Also helping the dollar may be tight money market conditions as the US Treasury restocks its cash balances. In the absence of official data, the focus this week will be on insights into the US job market from private sector releases
Oil prices are trading stronger this morning after OPEC+ decided to keep output levels steady over the first quarter of next year. However, this could change given the uncertainty on Russian oil flows following US sanctions
Italy's October inflation numbers show a marked deceleration. This is very much an energy and fresh food story, against stable core inflation. As we don’t expect an imminent change to the pattern, we're trimming our forecast for average 2025 headline inflation to 1.6%
The Riksbank and the ECB are both in a 'good place'. However, the risks that rates will be lowered again in Sweden are even lower than in the eurozone, as the growth outlook continues to improve and the Riksbank already took rates below 2% in September. We don't expect any new guidance at this meeting, and the krona's outlook remains good into 2026
CPI inflation moderated below both our expectations and those of the market in October, thanks to a lower core rate, making yet another 25bp rate cut in November highly probable. Our baseline scenario had assumed a pause in monetary easing, but given Poland's ongoing disinflationary trend, we're bracing for another 25bp rate cut next week
Energy price developments have resulted in a tick down in headline inflation, while core inflation remains at 2.4%. Overall, the inflation environment seems to remain very stable around the ECB's target for the moment
PEC+ is scheduled to meet this weekend, with the expectation that the group will agree on an output hike for December
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold rates steady. Other highlights of the week include key data on China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines
China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index saw a broad-based decline in October, while the non-manufacturing PMI managed to edge back into expansionary territory. Industrial activity has held up well despite soft PMI data year-to-date. Even so, this steeper downturn may raise some concerns
Higher-than-expected Japanese inflation in October, together with improvements in production and retail sales, suggests growth is bottoming out toward quarter-end, while price pressures continue to intensify. The Bank of Japan may consider an earlier rate increase
The dollar enjoyed a second round of support yesterday as Powell's relatively hawkish press conference continued to resonate with data-starved markets. But the conditions for another big leg higher in USD aren't there, in our view. Meanwhile, Japan has intervened verbally to curb JPY volatility, and GBP is looking closely at Reeves' political position
Improving eurozone hard data and a stable ECB mean the EUR swap curve should steepen from here. The complexity of estimating Dutch pension reform flows doesn't help the case for a steeper 10s30s. In the US, Treasuries are trading heavily in post-FOMC, and look like they can attempt to continue to do so
Spain’s economy grew by 0.6% over the third quarter, following a robust second quarter, as external demand weakened. With signs of cooling in industrial activity and tourism, growth is expected to normalise over the coming quarters and into 2026
The US remains in a steady state along the coupon curve. But there’s a lot going on in the money markets pipes as repo tightness persists. As we head into the Federal Reserve meeting, the big call would be to maintain the MBS roll-off and replace it with buying of T-bills, while broadly ending quantitative tightening
We expect a 25bp Fed cut today, in line with pricing and consensus. In September, a similar setting from a pricing perspective prompted a sharp dollar rebound. Now, with positioning more balanced and inflation looking better, it’s harder to see the same reaction. We expect some CAD weakness as the Bank of Canada should also cut by 25bp today
To meet surging power demand, the US needs to leverage all sources of energy with a laser focus on efficiency, reliability and affordability, not least if it's going to win the AI race too
US consumer confidence dipped again and remains on par with where we were during the pandemic. Concerns about the potential for tariff-induced price rises, a rapidly cooling jobs market and uncertainties over wealth are all having an influence and point to subdued consumer spending growth over the coming months
Italy's October batch of confidence data marks an improvement in all monitored sectors but services. This is good news for Italian growth perspectives in the fourth quarter
EUR/USD has nudged through resistance at 1.1650 in quiet markets. The softer dollar has been the driver, although we wonder whether some compromise on the French budget is helping too.
The dollar is a little weaker across the board in quiet trading conditions. The yen is outperforming on some very mild verbal intervention from Japanese authorities - but hardly enough to drive a sustainable trend. In a market deprived of US data by the government shutdown, there may be more focus than usual on reports that Amazon plans to cut 30,000 jobs
The oil market continues to digest the potential impact of US sanctions on Russian oil producers. Meanwhile, the risk of sanctions continues to provide a boost to middle distillates
South Korean growth beat expectations amid robust domestic demand, boosted by cash handouts and strong asset markets. Yet a slowdown is expected in the fourth quarter as government support wanes and export challenges abound
A revision of the eurozone's long-term growth outlook would have a significant upward impact on euro swap rates. This is unlikely to happen overnight, but in our view should build gradually over time. In the US, it's a steady state along the coupon curve. But there’s lots going on in the pipes of the money markets as repo tightness persists
Upside inflation risks are receding while worries about the jobs market are mounting. The Federal Reserve is expected to respond with another 25bp interest rate cut on Wednesday, and could also bring QT to a conclusion
The Ifo index increased in October on the back of improving expectations, while the current assessment worsened once again
Global risk assets are bid on the view that this week's Trump-Xi meeting will be a positive one. A 25bp Fed cut on Wednesday should also help the tone, but that is very much priced in. With the People's Bank of China continuing to fix USD/CNY lower, we favour a mild downside bias to the dollar at the start of the week
Bank lending to the eurozone private sector remained unchanged in September; the pace remains modest. This doesn’t provide much direction on monetary transmission, which so far doesn’t seem to be hindered by large macro uncertainty
Positive developments in US-China trade talks over the weekend provided a boost to risk assets, including large parts of the commodities complex
The communiqué following China's Fourth Plenum has given markets a first look at the priorities for the 15th Five-Year Plan. The key focus for policymakers looks little changed, as modernisation, innovation, self-sufficiency, and boosting domestic demand feature prominently
Lingering trade-induced uncertainty continues to weigh on Canadian activity and carries risks of broader jobs market deterioration. We expect the BoC to overlook higher-than-expected jobs and inflation data and cut by 25bp on 29 October. The door may be left open to more easing, and CAD should remain vulnerable against most of the G10
Join us on 5 November, the day before the Bank of England's crunch November meeting, for a live discussion of Britain's economic prospects, the Autumn Budget and the outlook for UK assets. Sign up today
US sanctions on Russian oil producers triggered a rally in crude. So far, however, that has only erased October’s losses, and it remains unclear whether Russian oil flows will be affected enough to justify structurally higher prices, and, by extension, a stronger USD. So far, the FX impact has been small, partly due to a cautious stance ahead of US CPI
The Dutch central bank acknowledges risks to interest rates linked to the 1 January 2026 transition of Dutch pension funds, but also sees mitigants to prevent market stress. The 10s30s has more room to steepen from a structural perspective, but we don't fully discount the probability of seeing some flattening in January
The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark rate steady at 2.5%, signaling a shift toward a less dovish policy stance. For the second consecutive meeting, one member dissented, while a growing number prioritised financial market stability over economic growth
Oil prices are trading firmer this morning after the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoila
Although September retail sales growth fell short of expectations due to weak food sales, the sector still performed strongly thanks to robust durable goods demand. When combined with solid industrial production and construction data, along with anticipated strength in services, this supports our projection of 4%YoY growth for 3Q25
Both food and services inflation are undershooting the Bank of England's forecasts, and together with softer wage growth, that brings another 2025 rate cut firmly back into play. Everything now depends on the details of the November Autumn Budget
Next week’s ECB meeting is unlikely to leave a lasting impact. The December meeting is the one to watch as chances of a rate cut are still higher than markets currently anticipate
Japanese exports recovered mostly in line with market expectations. We cautiously expect US-bound exports to stabilise after the recent trade deal. Stronger-than-expected imports indicate continued investment in AI and semiconductors, supporting growth in the fourth quarter
LME Week, the biggest gathering of the metals industry, brought a cautiously upbeat tone to metals markets this year. While macro uncertainty, particularly around China-US trade negotiations, continues to cloud near-term demand, participants broadly see a turning point as physical tightness and supply disruptions come into focus
Spot gold prices sold off aggressively yesterday as participants took profits in a market that has been extremely overbought
The current risks are towards more ECB easing, but because medium-term risks are tilted to the upside, we think markets will remain firmly anchored around a 1.75% landing zone. In the US, the ultra front end has a tight feel to it, while longer tenor yields have a more loose tendency. We identify some technical factors driving this
This year's Autumn Budget could be seismic for UK markets. We think it's more likely to push gilt yields down than up, yet there are several ways – from fiscal rule changes to dubious austerity pledges – which could cause borrowing costs to spike
Concerns about the US credit market have eased further since the weekend, prompting a hawkish repricing in the Fed curve and justifying a stronger dollar. EUR/USD may slip all the way to 1.160 in the next few days, but it may require a hot US CPI print to extend the drop. Elsewhere, Japan’s new PM Takaichi was confirmed by parliament this morning
Looking for lower market rates is the simplest interpretation of the wider backdrop. However, an upward creep in US inflation and a slow firming of Eurozone purchasing managers’ indexes argue against. Something would need to break for this narrative to change
Poland's industrial output surprised positively in September, but the outlook is uncertain as some auto producers plan plant closures and production pauses by the end of 2025. Wage growth in services is easing; employment is falling amid labour shortages. Policymakers may await more data before resuming rate cuts in 2026
Our economics team expects Wednesday's UK services inflation to undershoot the BoE's projection with a 4.6% read, which is also below the 4.8% consensus. That can modestly move the needle to the dovish side in the GBP swap curve and weigh on the pound this week.
The eurozone calendar is empty until Friday’s PMI and EUR/USD moves will primarily depend on market sentiment about the US credit market. What is important to note is that EUR/USD is spot on its short-term fair value (1.167) despite the recent rally.
As Jamie Dimon warned, there may be more ‘cockroaches’ (i.e. distressed lenders) out there after two US regional banks reported credit issues last week. Markets will be looking very closely for evidence of that, and the dollar continues to face substantial downside risks. Later this week, US CPI should not come in hot enough to derail Fed easing plans
Chinese GDP slowed by less than expected in the third quarter amid the boost from external demand. With China on track to hit this year's growth target, we could see less policy urgency. But weak confidence translating to soft consumption, investment, and a worsening property price downturn still need to be addressed
Pricing in Czech production points to strength in domestic sectors such as services and construction, while declining prices in industry indicate that underlying fragility persists. We see potential underperformance of the eurozone as the sword of Damocles for Czech exporters. The Czech National Bank will live in a double-faceted world for some time
Expect political fragmentation to continue in the Netherlands as a government with less than four parties seems unlikely. While coming from a comfortable position in terms of economic growth and public finances, political indecision risks undermining the Netherlands’ favourable medium-term outlook
Renewable power projects have a duty to support the nature around them, but how they’re designed is crucial. Gerben Hieminga looks at how solar and wind projects can benefit biodiversity and argues that regulation, not market forces, is key to aligning climate, nature, and financial goals
Global bond yields are pushing lower amidst a broader flight to safety, with Gilts leading the way. Even now, Gilt yields still seem high, driven by a hawkish Bank of England and a material risk premium. Gilt swap spreads were more sensitive to French turmoil than to dynamics in US Treasuries or Bunds, but this should change with more budget certainty
Gold and silver hit another record high this morning, topping the all-time peak set just yesterday
A sudden surge in scrutiny of US regional banks is hitting equities and the dollar, which, incidentally, faces the negative drag of a dovish Fed repricing, some hopes for a Ukraine truce, falling oil prices, and ongoing US-China trade tensions. It’s hard to pick a bottom in the ongoing USD sell-off, which may well run a bit further from her
China's discussion of its 15th Five-Year Plan will be a major focus, along with GDP and property price data and a loan-prime-rate decision. The Bank of Korea is expected to leave rates unchanged, while markets will get key data from Japan and Taiwan
Latam FX continues to perform well, buoyed by high yields and some firmer prices for key exports. While we are not expecting major setbacks here, we're not looking for major advances either. Here it looks like Brazil is testing the waters on fiscal policy ahead of next year's election and the Mexican peso could still be derailed by USMCA renegotiation
Some of the best performing currencies in the CEE region have started to hand back some of their gains as markets question whether central banks will have to turn more dovish. That's particularly been the case in Hungary. However, our call is that rate cuts are delayed, and the forint can continue to enjoy carry trade interest. CZK and ZAR should also do well
The dollar is trading towards the top of its trading range, buoyed by the lack of US data and some challenges faced by the euro and the yen. Yet US consumers remain fearful of their employment prospects, and we doubt the Fed will stray from its path toward two more rate cuts this year. Lower US hedging costs and seasonal trends suggest recent $ strength won't last
Depriving investors of US macro data, the government shutdown has brought a reprieve to the dollar. Bears have become discouraged by the lack of soft jobs evidence, and many have thrown in the towel.
The dollar revealed its vulnerability during Friday afternoon’s FX trading. The fear remains that this year's hike in US tariffs will eventually show up in hard data and once again challenge the idea of US exceptionalism. In the ongoing absence of US data, this week will be dominated by central bankers at the IMF meetings and international politics
Price pressures remained at a constant 9.9% in September, with seasonal food items offering mild relief. Services inflation continues to show resilience, and wage growth dipping below 5.0% adds further drag on demand. Our year-end projections remain 9.6% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026
China's exports continued to beat forecasts in September, but the bigger surprise was the surge of imports to hit a 17-month high. This resilience shows that China has strengthened trade with the rest of the world amid US protectionisma
