Contemporary trading on the global Forex market resembles survival in the Amazonian forests.
Geopolitical rollercoaster and oil in the background
Both individual investors and institutional market players must now survive an exceptionally complex mix of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the dynamically changing prices of energy commodities.
“Despite the strong rise in oil prices and the escalation of geopolitical risk, the EUR/USD rate has recently remained within a relatively stable range of fluctuations from 1,1450 to 1,1850,” analysts at UBS said.
Read also: Will the euro rate see a sudden move? “Bad news” could hit forecasts for EUR/PLN and EUR/USD
The commodity rally traditionally supports the USD, which in market turbulence acts as a safe haven, especially since the United States gains huge profits as a net energy exporter.
On the other hand, the same rise in fuel prices hits the euro economy like a shotgun and strongly drives inflation, which in turn forces the European Central Bank to flex its muscles.
Investors worldwide are now asking how long this sticky situation will last on the charts.
The key to executing the next spectacular move on the world’s main currency pair lies directly in the offices of monetary decision-makers. Macro‑economists and hedge funds closely watch upcoming meetings, which promise emotions worthy of a World Cup.
“The base scenario assumes that the ECB will decide to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in both June and July,” the bank said.
This decisive, hawkish move from Frankfurt will provide powerful fuel for the common currency and reset the current balance of power.
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the U.S. Federal Reserve plays a completely different game, resembling a wait for the opponent’s mistake. Although further rate hikes in the U.S. now seem unlikely, the market prices the first rate cuts only for 4Q’26 and 1Q’27.
When the Fed finally loosens policy, the USD will lose its main advantage of high bond yields. This type of divergence in the actions of key players is a classic market motif that always generates powerful and highly profitable trends.
Read also: Will the dollar rate be on a long path to 4 PLN? The expert issued forecasts for USD/PLN and EUR/USD. “The dollar could gain”
See also: Will the dollar surprise again? The expert issued a forecast for USD/PLN and EUR/USD. “It’s hard for me to believe there won’t be more fires”
UBS forecasts and technical limits
For traders and institutional investors, specific levels on the price chart are always crucial. They act like defense lines and checkpoints. As UBS experts emphasize, “in the short term, anxiety over the conflict involving Iran may still push the EUR/USD rate below the psychological barrier of 1.15. However, in the broader perspective, when market emotions subside in the second half of the year, the goal for the EUR/USD pair remains a return to higher values.”
Swiss bank analysts consistently target the level 1.20 by the end of 2026 and the middle of 2027. Current technical analysis clearly indicates the territory where the decisive battle will unfold.
Strong support lies at 1,15, and the next key bullish defense lines run at 1.14 and 1,12.
Chart. Euro to dollar rate (EUR/USD)
Source: Trading Economics.
In this multi‑level global game, our local zloty is performing exceptionally predatory. The euro to zloty rate currently balances around 4,23 PLN, clearly showing that the domestic currency is not easily pushed into offense by major players.
Although the hawkish EBC and a stronger euro theoretically pose a challenge for emerging markets, foreign capital still eagerly enters the GPW, seeking strong fundamentals.
Chart. Euro to zloty rate (EUR/PLN)
Source: Trading Economics.
Read also: Dollar rate before the chance to break out? Expert: “Capital will flow back to USD”
See also: Dollar rate before a “nervous and dynamic” move, euro waiting for a drop? Expert issued a forecast for USD/PLN and EUR/USD
