economy

Gilt yields have risen on BoE repricing and increase in risk premium

Gilt yields jumped after reports the UK government was scrapping plans to raise income tax, casting fresh doubt over how a £30bn gap will be plugged. We expect about half to come from upfront tax hikes, so yields may not climb much further. If we’re wrong, blame the politic

China’s 3Q25 GDP Beats Expectations Amid Weak Consumption and Property Slump

Chinese GDP slowed by less than expected in the third quarter amid the boost from external demand. With China on track to hit this year's growth target, we could see less policy urgency. But weak confidence translating to soft consumption, investment, and a worsening property price downturn still need to be addressed

US July CPI and Fiscal Deficit Send Mixed Signals, but Long-End Yields Face Ongoing Bearish Pressure

German 30-year yields are on the rise, with the curve hinting at more to come. German fiscal plans and Dutch pension fund reform are factors in play. The US is in a similar mode, with fiscal and CPI data followed by upward pressure on long yields

Dutch Inflation Slows to 2.5% in July, but Persistent Service Costs Keep 2% Target Out of Reach

Inflation in the Netherlands continued its downward trajectory in July, dropping to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.8% in June. A sustained return to the 2% target is not in sight yet, however, as service inflation remains quite stubborn

UK Labour Market Shows Signs of Stabilisation as BoE Eyes Further Rate Cuts

The UK jobs market is undoubtedly cooling, though a more modest fall in payroll employment suggests that the worst may be behind us, following big tax and Living Wage hikes. Better news on wage growth suggests the Bank can still afford to cut rates in November, though after last week's hawkish meeting, this call has become less clear-cut

From Policy Fog to Economic Focus: The Fed’s Path Forward

Moment of clarity

 – Risk assets rallied in July as trade uncertainty eased, despite a continued rise in the effective tariff rate.

 – With policy uncertainty fading, market attention is shifting to economic data. Friday’s employment report underscores that the economic consequences of recent policy shifts are only now becoming visible.

Norway’s Inflation and Weak Krone Support Pause in Rate Cuts, NOK Seen Recovering

Norway’s central bank surprised with a cut in June. However, we are much more confident that it will keep rates on hold at this week’s meeting, following a rebound in inflation and a significant weakening of the krone. We believe EUR/NOK is approaching an inflection point and anticipate NOK strengthening into year-end

Markets Open the Week on Optimism, Eyes on Ukraine, Inflation Data, and Tech Sector Moves

The week starts with gains in most Asian indices, and futures are in the positive in the early hours of the trading week. The S&P 500 posted its strongest week since late June on the back of robust earnings, further appetite for technology stocks, and hopes of progress in the Ukrainian war.

Global Markets Show Mixed Signals Amid Hawkish BoE Cut and Geopolitical Developments

Today's huge turn in the US stocks have sent another round of confusion in the daily cross-asset picture.

Markets Caught Between Hope and Headwinds: Trump Diplomacy, Tariffs, and Tech Momentum

European equity markets gained recently on hopes that Donald Trump might broker a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. However, Putin has not yet agreed to dialogue with Kyiv. Regardless, US crude is below a key support level (and falling) this morning on rising hope of progress – a move that could rapidly reverse as Russia looks much less enthusiastic to end the Ukrainian war then Trump is.

Philippines Q2 Growth Meets Expectations, but Headwinds Persist

The Philippines' GDP growth picked up in the second quarter compared to the first, largely driven by a surge in goods exports ahead of tariffs being implemented. We don't believe that the relative strength in today’s data will deter the central bank from cutting rates in August, as CPI inflation remains firmly below the inflation targe

Hungarian Industry Slips Further as Retail Growth Remains Uneven

The incoming industrial and retail data for June did not alter the overall picture of the recent dichotomy in trends. Industrial production continues to decline, while retail sales are rising. We do not expect these trends to change significantly for the remainder of the year

Trading Under Pressure: The Age of Economic Power Plays

'Tariff' may be the most beautiful word in Donald Trump's dictionary. And while tariffs will continue to dominate headlines for the rest of the year, let me introduce my economic term of the summer: Power Play

Italian Industry Bottoms Out, But Recovery Remains Elusive

Industrial production in Italy has likely reached a bottom, edging up slightly in June. However, a clear recovery is not imminent. It might come when the German infrastructure investment plan is implemented

Czech Industry Stable, Construction Booming as Wages Rise

Industrial production continued to expand in June, although new orders fell short of expectations, particularly given the decline in foreign orders. Meanwhile, the construction upturn is likely to continue, driving the Czech recovery and bolstering household budgets. Wage growth picked up in both manufacturing and construction

Retail Recovery and Labour Strength Bolster Eurozone Resilience

Retail sales increased by 0.3% in June, with the year-on-year growth pace accelerating from 1.9% to 3.1%. This suggests that household consumption is likely to underpin growth in the second half of the year

RBI Holds Rates Steady, Signals Patience Amid Trade Headwinds

While the Reserve Bank of India held rates steady, it significantly lowered its inflation outlook. The combination of softer inflation and emerging downside risks to growth suggests there is still room for further rate cuts - particularly if monetary policy transmission improves. Meanwhile, a stable rate differential should be supportive of the rupee

USD Eyes Fed Chair Pick as Trump Signals Imminent Announcement

President Trump hinted that Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett and two others are leading the race for the next Fed Chair and might be announced soon after Governor Adriana Kugler’s early exit. We think the dollar would welcome Warsh, but would get hit by Hassett’s nomination. We retain a short-term USD bearish bias as FX has room to catch up with Fed pricing swings.

Oil Market on Edge: Secondary Tariff Uncertainty and Shifting Global Demand

The oil market is awaiting greater clarity on the potential for secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, with President Trump’s deadline for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal scheduled for Friday

Tech-Led Rally and Bond Market Optimism Lift Sentiment; Eyes on Tariffs, Inflation, and Fed Cuts

Equity markets rebounded after Friday’s falls as investors looked to ‘buy the dip.’ Tech stocks led the market higher. The rally in globally treasuries was extended which also supported stock valuations. 

Upgrades and Catalysts Across Sectors: Tariff Resilience, Rate Tailwinds, and AI-Driven Momentum Fuel Bullish Revisions

We are upgrading W to Buy. We had downgraded to Neutral after initial tariff announcements and missed real upside, but still upgrade to Buy as the tariff macro has been less of an impact than expected, execution has continued (we never doubted this), and Wayfair has demonstrated that it’s very well positioned to capture share amidst market disruption. 

Markets Rebound Despite Macro Noise; AI-Led Momentum Meets Systematic Selling Pressure Ahead of ISM Services

GS Basics - Moving On. ISM Services. Systematic Length FICC and Equities | 5 August 2025 | 6:18AM UTC Overnight, Japan futures were unchanged. The JGB auction was a bit underwhelming, but fixed income remains well-supported, likely a reflection of last week’s softer U.S. data. 

Czech Inflation Remains Elevated Amid Food Price Drag; Core Pressures Persist, Supporting CNB’s Hawkish Stance

Consumer prices maintain solid growth, with persistent core inflation outweighed by softer food price dynamics. Both headline and core inflation may hover close to the 3% upper bound of the tolerance band around year-end, which should foster a hawkish stance by the Czech National Bank. Pro-inflationary scenarios take the stage for now

USD Under Pressure as BRICS Face US Sanctions Risk; EUR and CZK Poised for Divergent Paths Amid Inflation and Tariff Uncertainty

One could be forgiven for thinking that President Trump has now turned his attention to disassembling the BRICS political grouping. India, Russia and Brazil are squarely in focus currently. And benign market conditions in August clearly rely on no deterioration in the current US-China detente. Away from geopolitics, the focus today is on US ISM services 

South Korea: Inflation Remains Anchored, BoK Poised to Cut in October

With South Korean consumer inflation near 2% and GDP projected to rise, the Bank of Korea is likely to wait for clearer signs of housing market stability before easing. We still prefer an October rate cut over August.

CAD Under Pressure as Tariffs Bite and BoC Signals Dovish Tilt

As discussed in the USD section, new 'reciprocal' tariffs are having little market impact. Canada deserves special attention in our view, though, especially after Mexico secured another pause extension yesterday.

Japan Export Trends 1H25: Semiconductor Strength and Tariff-Induced Shifts

An increase in Japanese exports in the first half of 2025 isn’t shielding profit margins from tariff pain. Exports spiked in the first quarter amid front-loading, but it led to a significant technical correction in the second quarter. Cutting prices might have helped absorb some tariff impacts, but it’s sacrificing profit margins

Regional Snapshot: Mixed Signals Across Asian Economies in July Data

The main events of the week will be key data reports from China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan as economists try to assess trade-war effects across Asia. Also, we expect the Reserve Bank of India to hold interest rates steady

Quiet August in FX Markets and the Resurgence of Carry Trades Amid Low Volatility

If the FX options market is any guide, and once this week's big event risks are out of the way, investors are pricing a quiet August for markets. Low levels of volatility inevitably draw focus to the carry trade – a very popular strategy over recent months. Here, we back test strategies and evaluate the risks and opportunities in the EMFX space

Germany: Inflation Holds Steady in July as Disinflation Progresses Gradually

Headline inflation remained unchanged at 2% year-on-year. Looking ahead, German and eurozone inflation are likely to fulfil the ECB's old target of 'below but close to 2%'

Italy: Disinflation Takes Hold with CPI Seen Below 2% Through Year-End

The slowdown in energy prices was offset by rising costs in food and certain services, leaving headline inflation unchanged. Given the current subdued economic environment, we expect inflation to hover around current levels, with a temporary deceleration likely

Disinflation Continues in Poland, But Energy and Fuel Prices Limit Downside

Headline inflation fell to 3.1% year-on-year in July from 4.1% in June, yet this was higher than our forecast and market expectations. We don't think this will derail the rate-cut train as disinflation remains on track. We think the National Bank of Poland will continue monetary easing and deliver a rate cut at the next meeting in September

Despite Sluggish Growth, Eurozone Labour Market Remains Robust

The unemployment rate remained stable at 6.2% in May, with the number of unemployed people trending down by 62,000 people. Even though economic growth slowed again in the second quarter and uncertainty remained high, the labour market continued to show resilience

Dollar Strength Continues Amid Hawkish Fed and Solid Data

Despite two dissenting votes, the Fed delivered a broadly hawkish hold, with Chair Powell remaining firm on his inflation call and forcing markets to trim September cut bets. The dollar’s rally may have a bit more to run as today’s core PCE figures may come in above consensus and tomorrow’s jobs figures prove good enough to endorse the Fed’s prolonged pause

China PMI Slips in July: Manufacturing Hits 3-Month Low, Services Barely Expands

China's official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index slowed to a three-month low of 49.3, as new orders swung back into contraction

Busy Day for Bonds: Euro Data, Fed Pause, and Political Risk in Focus

Consensus expects zero GDP growth from the eurozone in the second quarter, but the outlook remains positive, supporting our bearish take on rates. The Fed will most likely hold today, which could intensify Trump's campaign against Powell. This would feed the bearish narrative on longer-dated USTs. We still see the Fed cutting by the end of this year

BoC Decision and Regional Inflation Risks Test CAD and CEE FX

The Canadian dollar has dropped less than other G10 currencies during this round of USD appreciation. For the moment, domestic factors aren’t playing much of a role, and markets remain quite conservative on Bank of Canada rate cuts, pricing in only 15bp by year-end.

Oil Markets on Edge: Trump Ultimatum Raises Risk of Russian Supply Shock

The Commodities Feed: Oil rallies as Trump confirms new deadline for Russia. Oil prices extended their rally yesterday as President Trump confirmed that he will give Russia 10 days to reach a truce with Ukraine

EUR Cracks, USD Climbs: A Shift in Market Conviction

The biggest takeaway from yesterday's sell-off in the euro was that some of this year's highest conviction trades were becoming a little stale. EUR/USD has already had a decent correction even before this week's negative event risks. Expect investors to remain cautious. For today, we'll be focusing on US JOLTS data and some European GDP dataa

Tariffs Reshape Korea’s Trade Landscape in 1H25: Export Struggles and Sectoral Shifts

US tariffs have had a serious adverse effect on overall South Korean exports, an examination of data indicates. Goods subject to sectoral tariffs showed notable declines. In addition, the heavy reliance on exports to both the US and China further complicates challenges for Korean exporters going forward

Dutch Pension Reform Drives Steepening in Long-End Euro Curves

Dutch pension reforms are underway, adding to the upward pressure on longer-dated euro rates. The eventual flows are hard to estimate, but the DV01 impact from unwinding interest rate hedges could be €500m. We may also see a broader rebalancing of the fixed income portfolio, whereby government bonds will be reduced. But delays are still a risk

Oil Prices Rise on US-EU Trade Deal as US Drilling Slows Further

A trade deal between the US and EU proved positive for sentiment this morning in the oil market. However, attention will likely turn to OPEC+ output policy from September

Tokyo Inflation Cools on Subsidies, BoJ Likely to Hold Steady

Japanese government efforts to moderate inflation are working, though underlying Tokyo price pressures remain elevated. Even so, the Bank of Japan is expected to stand pat next week. Its quarterly outlook report will be closely watched

Hungarian Labour Market Holds Steady, but Underlying Pressures Grow

Shifts in demographics and labour force participation were key drivers behind the decline in employment in the second quarter of 2025. With labour demand softening alongside supply, a near-term recovery seems unlikel

Bank of England Faces Tough Choice as UK PMI Shows Rising Costs Amid Job Losses

April's hike in UK payroll taxes and the National Living Wage are squeezing hiring but keeping pressure on inflation. We think the former is a bigger concern than the latter, but for now the bar for faster Bank of England rate cuts appears high. We expect cuts in August and November

Eurozone PMI Signals Modest Growth Amid Trade Uncertainty and Mixed Data

The composite PMI increased from 50.6 to 51 in July. With uncertainty all around, an economy showing slight growth, increasing employment and weak inflation sounds surprisingly benign

Market Rotation Ahead of Key Tech Earnings as Nasdaq Slides and Gold Surges

It has been the second day where North Americans see no particular market-moving data after last week's key releases, but this hasn't stopped the session from being volatile.
 

Stronger-than-Expected Q2 GDP Growth in South Korea Driven by Consumption Rebound

South Korea’s real GDP rebounded 0.6% in the second quarter, after shrinking in the January-March period, led by consumption and exports. Consumption is expected to take the lead as main growth driver in the second half thanks to supportive macro policies. Yet the timing of a Bank of Korea rate cut depends on housing prices and a trade deal

The Missing Link in the Energy Transition: Integrating Infrastructure for Electrons and Molecules

The future of energy hinges on integrating sustainable molecules with electrification. We explore how sustainable biogas, heat, hydrogen, and hybrid solutions can pave the way to green, reliable and affordable energy systems.

Integrating Electrons and Molecules: A Dual Path to Climate Neutrality

The future of energy hinges on integrating sustainable molecules with electrification. We explore how sustainable biogas, heat, hydrogen, and hybrid solutions can pave the way to green, reliable and affordable energy systems

Euro Strength Returns to ECB’s Radar, but Fed Holds the Keys

We expect a hold by the ECB on Thursday, but there are risks of a modest dovish tilt given tariff uncertainty and the euro’s recent strength. Ultimately, Fed decisions will drive EUR/USD more than the ECB’s, but signs of discontent with levels above 1.20 can cap the euro’s short-term gains. Expect rates to be particularly sensitive to trade comments

Mixed Signals from June Retail, but GDP Growth Remains on Track

Real retail sales fell short of our and market expectations, but the overall picture for private consumption is still stronger than observed in Q1. Economic growth improved despite soft external demand due to domestic factors. We estimate 2Q25 GDP growth at 3.5% vs. 3.2% posted in the previous quarter, and see the Polish economy rising by 3.5% in 2025

EU Targets Refined Product Flows in Latest Sanctions on Russian Oil

Oil prices showed little reaction to the EU’s latest sanction package against Russia. However, it could lead to further tightening in the European middle distillates market

Wage Growth Remains Elevated but Driven by One-Offs; Industry Still Struggles

June’s wage growth surprised to the upside, and readings from both industry and construction brought few signs of any further acceleration for economic growth. Wage increases were mainly due to one-off payments in the mining and energy sectors, and shouldn't prevent further rate cuts over the coming quarters as inflation sees a substantial moderation

BoJ vs ECB: FX-Hedged Euro Bonds Increasingly Attractive for Japanese Funds

This Sunday's Upper House elections in Japan are weighing on Japan's government bonds and the yen. Fears of political uncertainty, looser fiscal policy and also the effects of earlier BoJ policy normalisation have all contributed to JGB weakness. Here, we look at what's at stake and how markets might react

Fiscal Uncertainty and Treasury Moves Set the Stage for Increased Volatility

Passing the new budget through the French parliament may prove difficult and generate more rates volatility. EGB spreads look tight given defence spending ambitions. US Treasuries yields decide to test the upside, and for good reason we think

Assessing Rate Policy: Banxico and Brazil’s Central Bank in a Changing Economic Landscape

Brazil has opened a 3.5% buffer, which can expand to 5% should the Fed cut. That paves the way for 200bp of cuts, but that can be under or over shot depending on how the fiscal deficit is dealt with. Mexico can cut without the Fed, but by no more than 50bp. But that's a stretch as spreads are tight; far better for the cuts to happen under the cover of Fed cuts

Eurozone Employment Gap Narrows Amid Surprising Southern Strength

Since early 2023, countries in Southern Europe have seen strong declines in unemployment, while those in the north have seen increases. This is helping eurozone convergence, adding to tighter government bond spreads in the eurozone, and is ultimately making life easier for the European Central Bank

Czech Producer Prices Soften, But Consumer Goods Show Firming Trends

Industrial producer prices extended the series of declines by another month in June, coming in below expectations. That said, consumer goods prices in the industrial segment accelerated, while animal production pricing in agriculture remained robust

Romania’s Harsh Medicine: Tax Hikes and Spending Cuts to Avert Fiscal Meltdown

Romania has launched a bold fiscal overhaul to fix its record deficit by raising taxes and curbing spending. The short-term hit to growth and inflation will be significant, but the plan could also restore stability, unlock EU funds, and rebuild investor trust

Hungarian Wage Growth Slows Sharply in May, Raising Concerns for Consumption

In May, real wage growth reached its historical average, which appears weak compared to the double-digit increases seen in previous years. This could potentially harm households' perception of their financial situation and, as a result, diminish consumer confidence

Surging Trade Surplus May Lift China’s GDP Surprise

External demand continues to support Chinese economic growth, as the first-half trade surplus surged to a new high of $586bn amid resilient export growth and a year-on-year contraction of imports. While tariffs continue to drag on exports to the US, June data showed a smaller contraction after the tariff de-escalation in May

Dutch Chemicals Sector Moves from Stagnation to Structural Decline

The outlook for the chemicals sector in the Netherlands remains bleak. American import tariffs have impacted a sizeable portion of production, while structural issues such as global overcapacity and declining competitiveness continue to constrain its growth potential

German Industry: Cyclical Rebound or Just Front-Loading Fallout?

Industrial data from May suggests that there is more to German industry than just US front-loading. It's too early to give the all-clear, but signs of at least a cyclical rebound, albeit from low levels, are increasing

Eurozone Growth Stalls as Retail Cools and Services Disappoint

The -0.7% month-on-month decline in retail sales coincided with a -0.3% decline in overall services activity in April. While surveys had previously indicated potential weakness in eurozone services for the second quarter, this concrete data confirms our expectations that GDP growth between April and June may have been negative

Volatility Returns: Hungarian Retail Sales Fall Short of Expectations

May retail sales data was disappointing. Most sectors saw significant monthly declines, clearly showing that the strong increase in the previous month was a one-off

Markets Brace for Autumn Austerity as UK Finances Fray

The dollar benefited from the resulting backup in short-term rates and managed to end near the middle of the G10 performance table for the week. The price action suggests to us that current levels price in a lot of bad news for the US dollar, which has had the worst first half of the year since Nixon took the currency off the gold standard in 1973.

Dovish Surprise from Poland's MPC Signals Start of Gradual Easing Cycle

The President of the National Bank of Poland first called yesterday's cut as an adjustment of rates, not the beginning of a cycle of cuts. Finally, he signalled a September cut with the target rate seen in the range of 3-3.5%. We see a 50 basis point cut in September and a target rate of 3.5% in 2026

USD Pressure Amid Tariff Risks; ECB Watches Euro Strength; PLN Faces More Rate Cuts; CNB Signals Hawkish Stance

In spite of a better-than-expected US June jobs report and a 10/12bp jump in short-dated US interest rates, the dollar is barely changed from its soft levels seen this time yesterday. Seemingly, the threat of more tariff-induced FX volatility next week is keeping the outlook fragile. Elsewhere, we think the Polish zloty stays soft on a dovish central bank

US Treasury Market Faces Headwinds from Fiscal Expansion and Rate Outlook

The Big Beautiful Bill passed in US Congress, putting even more pressure on the fiscal outlook and thus longer-dated USTs. US payrolls came in better than expected, contributing to higher yields across the curve. The ECB minutes show more members are concerned about undershooting inflation, keeping the 1.75% market-implied landing zone firmly intact

Do Tariffs Still Matter? Navigating the New Trade Landscape

Industrial data for May shows that the positive trends observed in April were a one-off. Furthermore, the number of companies retaining labour is gradually decreasing due to falling demand. The outlook is gloomy, with no sign of a sudden turnaround

Tariffs Under Pressure: What’s Next for Global Trade?

US President Donald Trump’s 90-day trade reprieve is ending. Tariff noise is back, but does it really matter? US inflation has stayed surprisingly benign and the economy is holding up, despite the rollercoaster so far. But expect that to change, writes James Smith, as he and the team tackle another big week in the world of macro and markets

Too Weak to Ignore, Too Risky to Trust: Treasuries Caught Between Macro and Deficit

Payrolls day remains the most important one for markets. Even going into most pivotal Fed meetings we typically know what's going to happen. For payrolls, we think we know. And even if we did, the print itself can have a perverse effect. The big fear is we get a really bad one sometime soon. Feeling bullish? Fair. But, weak payrolls also means a higher deficit

Czech Manufacturing Starts to Rebound as PMI Moves into Expansion

Czech PMI flips into expansion zone. The manufacturing PMI entered expansion territory in June, coming in stronger than market participants had expected. This is a welcome change, as the index had remained below the neutral threshold for three consecutive years. We see potential implications for rate-setters if the rebound gains pace and proves sustainable, as the economy picks up speed

June PMIs Hint at Recovery, But ASEAN Remains Uneven and Exposed

Asia's manufacturing PMI improves, but trade risks are looming. Manufacturing PMI improved for Asia in June, reflecting a slightly positive business sentiment and helped by a massive reduction in tariffs on China in May. However, looking ahead, we expect Asia export growth to slow, resulting in softer manufacturing and overall GDP growth

Mixed Signals from US Data: ISM Still Contracting, Labour Holding Up

US manufacturing continues to struggle, amidst signs of jobs resilience. The ISM manufacturing index remains in contraction territory, but the job vacancy statistics are holding up fairly well and inflation pressures remain elevated. Fed Chair Powell, speaking in Portugal, continues to suggest the committee remains in wait-and-see mode, implying little prospect of a July rate cut

Eurozone Labour Market Stays Tight, But Wage Pressures Begin to Ease

Eurozone unemployment rate edges up in May, but remains at historic low. The unemployment rate increased from 6.2% to 6.3% in May. This increase was mainly driven by a jump in unemployment in Italy, but overall, the labour market remains strong with significant shortages across the eurozone

More optimism in Germany as Ifo index increases for sixth consecutive month

Is this wishful thinking or a fundamental change? Germany's most prominent leading indicator increased for the sixth consecutive month on hopes that fiscal stimulus will boost growth

How Europe can mitigate its mighty defence cost challenges

Increased defence spending by European countries will hit households hard. We're not overly convinced by the positive effects on GDP growth. But if Europe works more closely together, member states could significantly mitigate the downside. It's another challenge for NATO members, currently meeting in the Hague

Consumption still the main driver of Poland's economic growth in second quarter

Retail sales of goods at constant prices increased by 4.4% year-on-year in May (ING: 5.2%; consensus: 4.3%), following an impressive April (partly due to calendar effects), when retail sales growth reached 7.6% YoY, the highest in nearly three years.

Polish Economy Shows Signs of Stagnation Despite Calendar-Driven Industrial Boost

May's national economic data has fallen short of consensus expectations. The anticipated recovery remains elusive, although the available data does not include the performance in services and SMEs. The data supports further rate cuts by the National Bank of Poland, but the Middle East conflict complicates July's monetary policy easing

Bank Indonesia holds rates steady, but easing may be on the horizon

Bank Indonesia (BI) held its policy rate at 5.5%, citing global economic conditions and Indonesian rupiah stability. Despite tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, BI hinted at rate cuts later this year to boost growth

Middle East Tensions Fade, but Data and Auctions Keep Treasuries in Focus

Risk has calmed and Treasury yields are edging higher again, as we head close to a big Wednesday (FOMC, TIC data and 20yr auction). In the eurozone, the 10y EUR swap rate remains confined to its 2.4% to 2.6% range as the Israel/Iran conflict only adds to a long list of uncertainties while at the front-end energy price risks keep the ECB on edge  

Markets Misread Geopolitical Calm: Not a Classic De-escalation

Bank of Japan holds policy rate steady and plans slower tapering

The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.5%, reducing Japanese Government Bond purchases from 400bn yen to 200bn yen starting in April 2026. Governor Kazuo Ueda is cautious about US tariffs and their negative impact on investment and wages, while expressing no immediate concerns about inflation. We no longer expect a hike in the third quarter

Why Czech industry prices are bucking the broader trend

Czech industrial producer prices continued to decline on both an annual and monthly basis in May, keeping the outlook for industry rather calm. Meanwhile, pricing in the construction and service sectors has become more potent, which will keep consumer inflation above the central bank's target

UK Economy Slows as April GDP Declines and Job Market Weakens

UK GDP fell faster than expected in April, but these figures have been volatile lately owing to tariff frontloading, coupled with some possible issues with seasonal adjustment. After a strong first quarter, a weaker jobs market and economic uncertainty point to more muted growth rates for the remainder of this year

Tariff Turmoil 2025: US Trade Policy, Court Rulings, and the Future of Global Trade Tensions

Despite legal challenges to IEEPA tariffs, US trade policy remains firm. Tariffs on steel and aluminium have doubled, and new sectoral tariffs are expected. Trade deals may emerge, but most will be symbolic. Effective tariff rates will stay high throughout 2025

Dollar Holds Gains Amid Market Divergence; Oil Rises on Iran Sanctions, Central Banks in Focus

Dollar consolidates weekly gains, NOK and CAD buck trend in G10, AUD and JPY underperform. RUB and BRL excel in EM, intervention lifts TRY from record lows. 2y UST steady at 3.96%, 10y UST on 200dma (4.23%), US HY credit tightens to 314bp. Oil prices bid after US tightens sanctions on Iran, OPEC+ plans new supply cut to compensate for overproduction. 

Hungary Holds Rates Steady Amid Inflation Concerns and Uncertainty

National Bank of Hungary Review: A hawkish swan song. The National Bank of Hungary kept interest rates on hold in February for the fifth consecutive month. This comes as little surprise given the overriding pro-inflationary risk, which has been well-flagged by the monetary council. Forward guidance points to a stable policy rate ahead

Sustainable Finance Outlook for 2025: Growth Continues, But Below 2021 Peaks

Sustainable Finance: Paint it Green. Green is the colour! We expect sustainable finance issuance to grow in 2025, with fast-approaching interim decarbonisation targets and continuous standardisation driving global growth. This is despite headwinds from the changing political landscape.

National Bank of Hungary Preview: Inflation Takes Center Stage in Key Decision

We believe interest rates will remain unchanged at the next Monetary Council meeting, the final one under Governor György Matolcsy. This time, macroeconomic factors will play a key role in the decision-making process due to the deteriorating inflation outlook

If 2020 showed us how government spending really matters, then 2025 will prove that how it's spent matters even more

Governments on both sides of the Atlantic are turning on the taps when it comes to fiscal stimulus. But will that really propel growth and interest rates higher, like we saw after the Covid pandemic? James Smith isn’t so convinced. Buckle up as our team guides you through another big week for marke

FinancialMarkets.Media launches the FMM Marketing Media Seminar ‘25

FinancialMarkets.Media (FMM) is proud to announce that a small number of tickets are now available to attend the FMM Marketing Seminar ‘25; the first-ever marketing media event designed specifically to upskill digital marketers and marketing decision makers of financial products.