Limited data – low volatility
The sparse macroeconomic calendar did not favor FX market volatility. The FOMC meeting protocol from April had only a marginal impact on USD levels, as the hawkish “minute” message was not a surprise to market participants given current inflation expectations. The złoty remained under the dominant influence of external conditions. On one hand, the dollar exerted pressure during the European session, while on the other hand, support flowed from capital markets where investor sentiment noticeably improved.
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Additionally, in the evening, EM currencies of net energy commodity importers, including the złoty, clearly supported falling oil prices.
EURSUD reached a 6‑week low during the European session, falling below 1.16, but finished with a slight rise in the rate, which also supported złoty against the dollar.
Euro‑dollar supports USD/PLN rate
On Thursday, Polish investors will focus on April data from the Polish economy, which will indicate, among other things, how high fuel and energy prices affect industrial conditions.
The expected slowdown in this sector should not have a significant impact on złoty levels. Globally, investors will focus on May PMI readings for industry and services.
Euro rate – forecast for the coming days
In the absence of significant negative surprises from these releases and breakthrough information from the Persian Gulf region, we assume further stabilization of the EURPLN rate in the 4.24‑4.25 range and the USDPLN rate staying below resistance levels 3.66‑3.68.
On Wednesday, global FI market sentiment improved. Domestic SPW yields fell by 11/12bp, German bonds dropped about 9bp, and US Treasuries fell about 10bp.
Oil price falls more than 5%
On Wednesday, oil prices fell more than 5%, reaching a weekly low after Trump said negotiations with Iran were at the final stage, but also threatened further attacks if Tehran did not agree to a peace deal. This lowered inflation expectations, supporting a global retreat in treasury yields.
Technical factors also helped, specifically a significant short‑term buyback of yield‑measured market instruments. However, no significant trend‑level resistance on both core and domestic SPW markets was broken. These technical supports for 10‑year bonds (Polish, US, and German) are at 5.90%, 4.56%, and 3.09% respectively.
MF plans to issue bonds worth 6‑10 bn PLN
Preliminary PMI indices released on Thursday for the eurozone and the US, if significantly lower than economists’ expectations, could, as a channel of weakening global risk appetite, support treasury bond levels in our view.
In the country, the next regular auction, where the MF intends to issue bonds worth 6‑10 bn PLN, may slightly weigh on SPW secondary market levels in the current environment. The main factor influencing inflation expectations and bond yields will be oil prices, which will remain dependent on developments in the Middle East.
Further de‑escalation signals that investors hope for could break the aforementioned support levels, which, combined with credible prospects for unlocking the Strait of Hormuz, would likely open space for significant treasury yield declines. Given that, according to US representatives, the current negotiation window is narrow, there is little time for such a positive development.
