bond yields

Treasury Volatility and ECB Outlook: Contrasting Economic Signals and Liquidity Dynamics

In the Eurozone, ECB’s Schnabel sees money market rates rising as system reserves decline, with banks then turning to the ECB for liquidity. It is part of the plan and could happen in mid-2026, but is more likely to happen later. Meanwhile, US Treasuries are being buffeted by contrasting impulses. It's been quite a week, but we broadly end where we started

US Treasuries Stay Under Pressure as Powell’s Message Lingers; Limited Room for Gilt Yields to Fall Further

Fed Chair Powell's reticence to cut in December remains a driver of sentiment. Nevertheless, Treasuries are interpreting the various crosswinds as supportive of a rise in yields. We don't think the Bank of England will cut, but markets are not fully convinced. Gilt yields have little room to move lower as the Budget risk premium has already fallen

US Treasuries Continue to Trade Heavily as Yields Edge Higher

US Treasury yields look like they want to nudge higher when they can. And why not, as corporate earnings are firm, and hard macro data is being kept under shutdown wraps. New lows in euro rate volatility help spreads on European government bonds (EGBs) tighten further. Given the spread tightness, Bunds look increasingly attractive as a risk hedge

Treasuries Hold Steady as Fed Prepares to Fine-Tune Liquidity

The US remains in a steady state along the coupon curve. But there’s a lot going on in the money markets pipes as repo tightness persists. As we head into the Federal Reserve meeting, the big call would be to maintain the MBS roll-off and replace it with buying of T-bills, while broadly ending quantitative tightening

Global Markets Stabilize Amid Tariff Tensions, Yuan Shift, and Bond Market Volatility

• Nikkei +6% as Japan and US intensify trade discussions before 24% reciprocal tariff comes into effect tomorrow. Commodity FX recovers led by AUD. US 10y settles at 4.17% after rollercoaster 24 hours, 200dma at 4.22% (200dma). 10y Bund +1bp at 2.62%.   

Markets Rebound Amid Stimulus Hopes and Tariff Uncertainty

Markets higher as we bounced from the aggressive levels that we marked Monday’s open. Overnight Japan nearly +6% (valuations had approached covid lows) and China higher led by support from a swath of corporate buybacks announced + what would appear to be national team support.

Markets Tumble Ahead of Trump's "Liberation Day" Tariff Announcement; Risk Aversion Rises

Risk assets were down again on Monday in the run-up to what Trump has dubbed Liberation Day on 2 April, when he is due to announce a raft of reciprocal customs tariffs, which would see the trade war take on a global dimension. 

Tariffs Shake Markets: Equities Drop, Yields Rise, and USD Strengthens

Financial markets reacted negatively to President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on automobile imports, effective from 2 April. US and European equities sold off. 

St Louis Fed President Musalem warned that inflationary impact from  tariffs might be longer- lasting, prompting Fed to  keep interest rates higher. 

Treasury and Australian yields were higher, but Gilt yields in the UK fell as the UK government confirmed plans for public spending cuts. 

US Tariff Uncertainty Drives Market Volatility Across Assets

Hopes and fears surrounding US tariffs continue to keep the market on its toes. Yesterday, the hope that the next wave of US tariffs would finally be more limited and targeted, combined with a very solid US services ISM report, fuelled a rebound by US risk assets (led by US techs) and the US dollar, and pushed US bond yields higher in a pro-growth configuration.

Markets on Edge: Option Expiry Volatility Meets Trade Hopes and Macro Focus

After the very fragile post-FOMC rebound, Friday's session saw American indices (notably techs) extend their recovery, aided by more measured remarks from Donald Trump, who said “there’ll be flexibility” on reciprocal tariffs. 

Market sentiment steady post-Fed; focus shifts to BoE as Powell calms recession fears

Market sentiment was rather positive ahead of the FOMC statement, with European equities rising and € credit spreads tightening. In the wake of the monetary policy decision, equities rose and bond yields eased further after Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve saw no need for drastic action in the face of Donald Trump's trade war.

GBP: BoE to leave door open to cut in May but risk of less dovish signal

The pound has outperformed alongside other European currencies this month benefitting from the significant improvement in investor sentiment towards the region. It has helped to lift cable back up above the 1.3000-level for the first time since last year’s US election.

US Tariffs, EU Retaliation, and Geopolitical Tensions Impact Global Markets

The US imposed steel and aluminium tariffs which sparked a response from the EU. The emerging trade tensions saw Asian equity markets close lower. 

A potential ceasefire in Ukraine added support to European equities despite rising trade tensions between the EU and the US with the EU announcing retaliatory tariffs. 

A weak than expected US CPI print saw the sell off in bonds continue in the US and oil prices rise. 

Metals prices lifted over concerns of tariffs and tight supply. 

Global Markets React to US Tariffs and Central Bank Moves

The 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium announced by Donald Trump in February came into force on Wednesday. They affect a number of countries, but in particular Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Germany and several Asian countries.

US Dollar Faces Uncertainty as Government Shutdown Looms

Does borrowing make sense in 2025?

US Treasury yields have been on a rollercoaster this year. But we expect the appeal of borrowing strategies to rise as the global rate-cutting cycle continues. Borrowing can form part of a financial plan, subject to awareness of its risks.  

What do Germany's fiscal plans mean for investors?

Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz announced plans for a major increase in defense and infrastructure spending. If passed by the German parliament, the plans would mark a significant fiscal shift that has the potential to boost growth and support Eurozone assets.

Market Turmoil Deepens Amid US Policy Uncertainty and Growth Concerns

The markets do not really seem to share Donald Trump's indifference to the short-term impact of his policies on the US economy. 

Markets Rally as Germany Plans Defense Spending Boost; Oil Drops on OPEC+ Supply News

US equity market recorded the steepest daily losses since mid-December and USD depreciated notably as President Trump confirmed that import tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China will go up, and a weaker manufacturing survey added to market concerns about wakening US growth. 

Nvidia Earnings Disappoint, U.S. Stocks Slide as Tariff Concerns and Cooling Economy Weigh on Markets

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended sharply lower, weighed down by a slump in chipmaker Nvidia after its quarterly report failed to rekindle Wall Street's AI rally, while investors focused on data pointing to a cooling U.S. economy.