USDPLN at 3.73
The planned visit of the U.S. Vice President to Geneva, where the 60‑day peace negotiations with Iran were to officially start, was cancelled, and the point of friction on the Iranian side became further Israeli military operations in Lebanon.
Markets are beginning to see that this process will be quite complicated and may not fit within the imposed time frames – in other words, the "positive" effect associated with the memorandum is fading, which is evident at least in the oil reaction.
A strong dollar heavily impacts EM markets, and the mentioned oil reaction may further amplify that nervousness. As a result, on Friday morning USDPLN tested around 3.73, which is nearly 9 cents higher in three days.
Meanwhile, EURPLN rose today to just over 4.26, slightly breaking the resistance from late April at 4.2635. Today we have a holiday in the U.S., and there is also a weekend coming up, which means market emotions will remain until the new week.
Attention is drawn to the correction in the stock markets, although it is worth noting that yesterday’s trading balance on Wall Street was positive. This signals that despite a strong dollar and the Fed’s "hawkish" narrative, equity markets still remain in a "seizing opportunities" mode.