Emerging Markets

FX Outlook: Softer US Data Fuels Dollar Weakness and Carry Trade Demand

After a couple of months of stability, we look for the dollar bear trend to resume into year-end. EUR/USD should be trading up at 1.20 by that stage after three Fed rate cuts. Even though valuations look stretched in equity and credit markets, we still prefer a benign decline in the dollar and a supported environment for risk assets and activity currencies

USD Faces Political Headwinds, EUR Finds Consumer Support, CNY Strengthens, PLN Eyes Budget Risks

Wednesday saw no further progress in the administration's removal of the Fed's Lisa Cook. The FX environment remains choppy, but we note the continued low fixings in USD/CNY – seemingly a move by Beijing to preserve the purchasing power of households and boost consumption. Elsewhere, healthy car sales data in Germany can provide some support to the euro

Powell’s Jackson Hole Message Triggers Yield Curve Steepening and Dollar Weakness

Chair Powell could have been super balanced, or even hawkish. But he effectively chose to endorse the market discount for a rate-cutting phase ahead. It's had quite the reaction. Risk assets are up, the dollar down, so's the front-end yield. Watch longer tenor yields though - the deep thinkers of the bond market, and not quite convinced cuts are all good

Weaker Dollar Fuels Global Risk Appetite as Fed Rate-Cut Bets Surge

Yesterday, US inflation data was mixed, but the market reaction was not. Core inflation in the US posted its strongest gains this year, and the yearly figure accelerated more than expected to 3.1% in July.

Global Markets Stabilize Amid Tariff Tensions, Yuan Shift, and Bond Market Volatility

• Nikkei +6% as Japan and US intensify trade discussions before 24% reciprocal tariff comes into effect tomorrow. Commodity FX recovers led by AUD. US 10y settles at 4.17% after rollercoaster 24 hours, 200dma at 4.22% (200dma). 10y Bund +1bp at 2.62%.   

Global Markets Rattle as US Reciprocal Tariffs Take Effect

Latest round of tariffs will come into effect on 5 and 9 April. Donald Trump announced the imposition of a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the United States from 5 April. For countries with which the United States has the biggest trade deficits, higher, individualised reciprocal tariffs will take effect on 9 April.

Turkish Lira Under Pressure: Political Risks and Monetary Policy Challenges

The EM market has been in standby mode with high uncertainties ahead of the US tariff announcement at 16:00 ET on 2 April. The EM market seems to have partially priced in the US tariffs, but there could be more market reactions when the details are released.

US Tariff Uncertainty Drives Market Volatility Across Assets

Hopes and fears surrounding US tariffs continue to keep the market on its toes. Yesterday, the hope that the next wave of US tariffs would finally be more limited and targeted, combined with a very solid US services ISM report, fuelled a rebound by US risk assets (led by US techs) and the US dollar, and pushed US bond yields higher in a pro-growth configuration.

TRY Under Pressure: Political Turmoil Triggers Market Volatility Despite Central Bank Support

The other main development over the weekend was the formal arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu who has been jailed on corruption charges on Sunday. The case has the potential to keep Imamoglu, who denies the charges, behind bars for years and prevent hm running from running against President Erdogan in the next election.

Tech Deals, Energy Policy, and Pharma Expansion Shape Global Markets

CoreWeave, an artificial intelligence startup backed by Nvidia, has signed a five-year contract worth $11.9 billion with OpenAI to provide cloud  computing services ahead of its hotly- anticipated stock market launch,  people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

USD Strength Persists Amid Tariff Risks, But European Currencies May Rebound in 2H

• Fresh tariff concerns last week gave the USD renewed support. US data, however, are dimming the near-term economic growth outlook. This combination poses headwinds for pro-growth currencies, in our view. 

• A potential ceasefire in Ukraine, greater fiscal spending in Europe, and country-specific factors should continue to shape European currencies, but clarity on these drivers still remain scarce. 

India's Stock Market Correction. Cyclical Slowdown, Government Populism, and Emerging Risks for Corporates

In stock terms the sell-off has been concentrated in the more high beta domestic cyclical sectors, such as property, infrastructure and industrials which were the big outperformers last year. This is also why GREED & fear’s India portfolio, which is heavily positioned in these sectors, outperformed the Nifty by 18.7% in US dollar terms on a total-return basis in the year to 17 December but has since underperformed by 12.1% (see Exhibit 9). 

Central Bank Demand Powers Gold's Strong Rally: A Look at 2024 and Beyond

Gold started 2025 on a strong footing, following a stellar performance in 2024. Barring possible setbacks, we believe that underlying factors will continue to support gold this year.