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Oil prices appear to have found some support after comments from the Saudi energy minister yesterday who suggested demand remains healthy. Meanwhile, grain prices came under pressure with a relatively bearish WASDE release.
ICE Brent has managed to claw its way back just above US$80/bbl, whilst prompt timespreads have also bounced back a bit. Comments from the Saudi energy minister yesterday appear to have provided some comfort to the market, with the minister stating that oil demand remains healthy and that the move lower seen in oil prices has been driven by speculators rather than fundamentals. The minister stated that increased exports from the Middle East does not reflect increased output, but rather a seasonal trend as stronger summer demand in the Middle East eases.
We believe that the scale of the sell-off in oil is exaggerated given that fundamentals are still tight at least in the short term. However, fundamentals are not as bullish as originally anticipated with Russian oil exports edging higher, whilst refinery margins have also been weakening.
Middle distillates remain tight despite the more recent weakness in cracks. Gasoil inventories in the ARA region fell by 47kt last week to 1.72mt, according to data from Insights Global. This leaves inventories at similar levels to those seen at the same stage last year, and around 24% below the 5-year average. The middle distillate market remains vulnerable as we head deeper into the northern hemisphere winter.
