In any case, the parties were to agree to a 60‑day ceasefire, during which they would finalize arrangements regarding the future of Iranian uranium. Earlier, a gradual easing of the Strait of Hormuz was expected. Reports from that night clarify this thread – the process of restoring shipping is expected to take up to 30 days, as Iran would still need to remove, among other things, mines it had laid and withdraw from its mine‑clearing plan.
So, if even Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the current arrangements with Iran are 90‑95 percent complete, and the Iranian side was conducting key talks with the Prime Minister of Qatar in Doha, is an American attack on Iranian facilities in southern Iran justified?
Officially, the parties say it will not disrupt the peace talks, but the U.S. side already says that the agreement will still take "a few more days".
Will the prospect of a quick peace end up again with the usual diplomatic "fata morgana"? The risk is heightened by Israel’s renewed attacks on targets in Lebanon, and Prime Minister Netanyahu has implied that these actions could intensify.
Tuesday brings a pullback on Wall Street contracts that erased much of yesterday’s movement. Oil prices rose. In the currency market, the dollar is gaining on the broader market, though the momentum is not large (the weakest declines today for NZD and CHF do not exceed 0.4%).
In the debt markets, bond yields reflect a rebound. Investors today need strong "assurances" that the peace process in the Middle East will not "topple". The macro calendar has few releases today.
Attention will turn to Conference Board data on the U.S. consumer confidence index for May (release at 16:00). After weak readings from the University of Michigan, there is a significant risk that expectations at 92 points will not be met.
EURUSD – slight pullback, ECB in focus
EURUSD quotes dipped slightly to 1.1623 this morning and then recovered. The market stays above 1.16 and assumes that the parties are "seriously" approaching the peace memorandum, which will help end the conflict in the Middle East and unlock the key Strait of Hormuz for the global economy.
In the background, speculation about a possible ECB move on interest rates during the June 11 meeting – the market expects a 25 basis‑point move, though it is uncertain whether policymakers will make further moves for fear of excessive economic slowdown.
Daily EURUSD chart
Technically, the trend is bullish (recent bounce off the trend line, daily indicators), but until a significant resistance break around 1.1655‑1.1670 occurs, we will not see a clearer upward momentum.
Remaining below 1.1655 will increase the risk of a re‑test of the vicinity of the mentioned trend line – currently at 1.1585.
Stronger dollar sentiment will be driven by information suggesting that the signing of the peace memorandum with Iran is being extended.
