The Iran stalemate continues. Will the dollar suffer again?
Donald Trump maintains the Strait of Hormuz blockade to pressure Iran.
The prospect of further disruptions in the global energy market strengthens the ongoing market unease after the failure of weekend peace talks between Washington and Tehran in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad.
As Bloomberg reports, the parties to the conflict are still considering another round of talks before the two‑week ceasefire expires next week, announced on April 7.
“This morning, the right people, the right people called us and they want to reach an agreement,” the U.S. president said on Monday, a few hours after the Strait blockade began.
One of the key obstacles to a peace agreement remains Tehran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, which the U.S. government refuses to accept.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs Research say that the escalation of events in recent weeks could, in the long term, weaken the dollar’s global position.
Experts highlighted that political uncertainty in the United States over the past year has weakened the currency, and the latest tensions could repeat that scenario.
“Nevertheless, cyclical factors play a much larger role in currency outcomes across the investment horizon, and we see several reasons to remain cautious when applying these long‑term pessimistic forecasts to short‑term prospects,” the report said.
The experts say that energy market resilience will be crucial.
“The energy shock will likely have a more adverse impact on the economies of other regions than on the relatively self‑sufficient United States,” they said.
“As long as it remains in the foreground, political uncertainty is unlikely to lead to the same kind of chaotic dollar depreciation as last year, but in a broader sense it should remain a long‑term restraining factor,” they added.
Read also: Will the dollar rate reach 4 PLN on the long run? The expert issued forecasts for USD/PLN and EUR/USD. “The dollar could gain.”
See also: Dollar and euro rates before a strong drop? Expert: “Over time, the brutal calculation increasingly comes to the fore.”
Euro and dollar rates – Goldman Sachs Research forecast
The dollar to zloty rate on Tuesday, April 14 is at 3,60 PLN.
Goldman Sachs Research economists forecast that the USD/PLN rate will rise to 3,77 PLN within three months, then fall to 3,60 PLN over six months.
According to twelve‑month projections, the rate will reach 3,54 PLN.
Chart. Dollar to zloty rate (USD/PLN)
Source: TradingView.
The euro to dollar rate is 1,17 USD.
The bank predicts that in three, six and twelve months the rate will be respectively 1,14 USD, 1,18 USD and 1,20 USD.
Chart. Euro to dollar rate (EUR/USD)
Source: TradingView.
The euro to zloty rate fluctuates around 4,24 PLN.
Goldman Sachs’ forecast says the rate will rise to 4,30 PLN within three months.
Then it will fall to 4,25 PLN and remain at that level for the next year.
Chart. Euro to zloty rate (EUR/PLN)
Source: TradingView.
Read also: Will the euro surprise soon? The expert says what will happen with EUR/PLN and EUR/USD.
See also: Dollar before a “nervous and dynamic” move, euro faces a drop? The expert issued forecasts for USD/PLN and EUR/USD.
