At the same time the Tehran regime refuses to hand over its reserves of the commodity to the USA. The fragile ceasefire (ending Wednesday) is now in doubt, although the parties have not explicitly denied reports that negotiations will resume on Tuesday in Islamabad – the US delegation with Vice‑President J.D. Vance is due to arrive tonight.
Thus the market treats the latest reports as a "controlled escalation" within the negotiation process, not as a signal that war will resume on Wednesday.
However, if information emerges that there will be no talks in Pakistan tomorrow, it could become more tense.
The Polish currency is losing cosmetically
On Monday morning the euro trades at just under 4.2350 PLN, and the dollar at 3.5950 PLN – as you can see, the Polish currency is losing cosmetically.
Yet markets are still jittery from the moves that happened Sunday evening. On EURUSD we see a bounce after a pullback to 1.1730 at night – now the price is around 1.1770.
EUR/USD still drew a bearish doji candle on Friday
It is worth noting that EURUSD still drew a bearish doji candle on Friday, which may suggest a prolongation of the dollar rebound wave for the next days.
The focus remains on the Middle East, but also on tomorrow’s hearing of Kevin Warsh before the US Senate Banking Committee.
Considering the recent volatility in commodity markets, the new Fed chair may present a more "balanced and cautious" approach to monetary policy than the "doves".
In a situation where the dollar continues to gain, it could extend the correction on the zloty for the next days.
This week will see the publication of data from the Central Statistical Office – on Tuesday: industrial production, construction, employment and wages, and on Thursday: retail sales and M3 money supply, and on Friday: unemployment.
These releases will have no impact on monetary policy moves in the coming months (we expect a wait‑and‑see after the rate cuts in early March), but weak data could have a negative tone for Polish asset valuations.
Daily EURPLN chart
Daily USDPLN chart
