Euro EUR/PLN below 4.23 PLN
The Monday session passed calmly due to ongoing hopes for an agreement in Iran and the absence of investors from London and the USA (a holiday).
The EUR/PLN rate gradually fell during the day, reaching about 4.23.
Brent crude price stayed below $100 per barrel. After overnight news of US strikes on Iranian forces, today the zloty could weaken and market sentiment could deteriorate.
The Polish debt market strengthened again. Bond yields fell yesterday by 7‑10 basis points on the long end of the curve. FRA rates and IRS rates changed little.
Today we will see Q1 BAEL data, supplementing the monthly labour market assessment based on enterprise sector data and employment office registers. Also from the GUS Statistical Bulletin we will learn, among other things, about industrial orders in April and unemployment registration data.
Retail sales growth slowed
Retail sales growth slowed to 1.3% YoY in April from 8.7% YoY in March. This result was largely in line with our expectations (1.5% YoY), though weaker than market consensus (3.0% YoY). According to our estimates, durable goods sales dynamics fell to 0.9% YoY from 7.8% YoY, and non‑durable goods to 1.3% YoY from 8.9% YoY. In our view, the monthly reading volatility largely reflects Easter calendar effects. We expect May to bring a normalisation of dynamics to about 5% YoY, indicating sustained solid private consumption.
In Q1, companies employing 50 or more people recorded revenue growth of 5.7% YoY and costs of 4.9% YoY, which translated into an increase in average margin over four quarters to 4.8% from 4.6% in 2025. Investments in large firms maintained a high growth pace with 8.7% YoY (only 0.1 percentage point lower than Q4 2025), driven by stronger construction spending, with slightly slower growth in transport investments.
In sectoral terms, after two years of growth, processing investments turned positive, the transport sector posted a strong result, while mining and real‑estate services generated declines. We expect high investment demand dynamics to persist in subsequent quarters.
Money supply growth
Money supply M3 rose in April by 11.3% YoY versus 11.5% in March, slightly above expectations. Deposit dynamics stayed above 10% YoY, with demand deposits accelerating to 12.5% YoY from 11.7% previously, and term deposits slowed to 5.9% YoY from 6.7% YoY previously. The value of loans after adjusting for exchange rate changes was higher in April by 7.2% YoY, indicating further gradual acceleration (6.8% YoY in March, 5.5% YoY in December).
The dynamics of zloty consumer loans reached 9.4% YoY, zloty housing loans 9.2% YoY, and loans for firms (after adjusting for currency fluctuations) 12.0% YoY. It therefore appears that geopolitical uncertainty and the energy shock have not reduced household and firm interest in credit.
