The euro to Swedish krona rate stands at 10,7 SEK.
Euro to Swedish krona rate. What next?
After strong gains at the turn of March and April, the currency pair returned to the vicinity of the so‑called fair value.
This is a classic consolidation, as the market gathers strength before the next blow, and the lack of a clear trend leaves traders busy catching small deviations from the norm.
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As ING Think experts emphasize, “further easing of tensions could bring the EUR/SEK rate back into the 10,70–10,75 range as risk appetite rises.”
“However, the outlook for this currency pair will be somewhat better compared to the pre‑war period,” they said.
“We have revised our year‑end target from 10.50 to 10,60. We do not expect a rate hike in Sweden before the first quarter of 2027, because the Riksbank seems unconcerned about the temporary rise in inflation. There is, however, a risk of an earlier move, which is fully priced in,” they added.
If we look more broadly, the medium‑term forecasts for SEK are exceptionally favourable.
According to ING Think, the fundamental value of EUR/SEK could fall as low as 10,60 within the next 12 months.
A very important issue is also the stability of the Riksbank, which keeps interest rates at 1,75% and does not rush into sharp moves.
Combined with capital inflows from the USA to Europe, this creates a very solid support for SEK.
Sweden expects a GDP growth of 2.6% in 2026.
Investors today look for places with predictable fiscal policy and adequate safety (defence spending), i.e. countries like Sweden.
Chart. Euro to Swedish krona rate (EUR/SEK)
Source: Trading Economics
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Dollar to Swedish krona rate, i.e. the global fear barometer
The USD/SEK pair is a completely different field, using football terminology.
When something important happens worldwide, from tensions in the Middle East to new and key AI models in Silicon Valley, the USD/SEK rate reacts like a litmus paper.
The current base trend assumes a weakening USD as the macro cycle progresses.
ING Think experts forecast a drop in USD/SEK from 9,19 SEK to 9,03 within 6 months and 8,83 over the next 12 months.
When the risk‑on mood prevails, investors abandon the safe haven USD and seek currencies with higher beta (higher responsiveness to market conditions), such as SEK.
The problem arises when geopolitics decides to say “check.”
Armed conflicts and the oil price spikes they often trigger immediately trigger a flight‑to‑safe‑haven mechanism. Then USD dominates, and SEK must acknowledge the superiority of the American currency.
The most important information for the investor is that EUR/SEK and USD/SEK are completely two different worlds.
Playing the euro pair is a game of regional chess, Riksbank versus ECB. USD/SEK, on the other hand, is survival in a geopolitical, global jungle.
Chart. Dollar to Swedish krona rate (USD/SEK)
Source: Trading Economics.
The Swedish krona to zloty rate reaches 0,39 PLN.
Chart. Swedish krona to zloty (SEK/PLN)
Source: Trading Economics.
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