Stalemate in the Gulf Continues
There is still no breakthrough regarding the US-Israeli aggression on Iran. Markets, however, believe we are getting closer to a resolution.
Yesterday the barrel price fell by more than 5 USD, clearly showing increased investor hope.
Iran sent another proposal through Pakistani mediators. Apparently significant progress has been made on limiting Iran's nuclear program and partially lifting sanctions in exchange for unlocking the Strait of Hormuz.
The situation in the region remains an issue, especially the presence of US forces and security guarantees for Iran. A regime change scenario in Tehran seems very remote. The closer we get to signing a peace agreement, the cheaper we should view crude oil. In the currency market, this should manifest as a dollar discount against major currencies.
Data from Poland
Today a package of data from Poland hit the market. Industrial production turned out weaker than expected. It grew by 3.1%, not the 4.1% that was anticipated. Added to this is the construction and assembly sector, which surprisingly performed well. We saw a 4.5% increase against a forecast of 1.2%. In the background, prices of industrial production sold rose by 1.9% over the year, slower than inflation.
This is good news for our portfolios, as at least from this side price pressure is not increasing as much. After this data the Polish zloty strengthened. Considering that the forint and Czech koruna also gained at the same time, this should be more linked to market movements than to the domestic situation.
Wages in Poland
Today we received data on wages and employment in enterprises with more than 9 employees. They obviously do not cover the entire economy, but they are the most precise reading for the Polish labor market in terms of wages. The average wage was 9,530.74 PLN – a 5.4% increase and a decline compared to last year. April often shows declines compared to March.
This is because annual bonuses are often paid then, which distorts the indicator. However, analysts expected a 6% wage increase. This shows that the labor market is slowly catching its breath. Employment in enterprises fell by 0.9%, but remember that this does not immediately translate into unemployment. These data do not show what percentage of those people actually leave the labor market and what percentage find themselves in smaller firms.
Today in the macroeconomic calendar there are no major readings.
Maciej Przygórzewski – Chief analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl
