currency markets

USD Faces Correction Risks as Dollar Rally Fades; Focus Shifts to BoE, CEE Central Banks

Despite good ADP and ISM services data, the USD has corrected lower. With equities re-stabilising, the risks remain of further USD pullbacks after a rally that has exceeded what rate differentials can justify. Today, we see the BoE on hold despite mounting speculation of a pre-Budget cut. Norges Bank is likely to hold too, with low risks of guidance tweaks

EUR Steady as ECB Signals Policy Consensus; CAD Awaits Fiscal Boost

The slew of post-meeting ECB speakers has added little to the policy narrative. The Governing Council is broadly on the same page with the rates view, and the feeling is that some substantial data surprises are now needed to create new division among policymakers.

Core Inflation Stable as Bank of Canada and Riksbank Signal Dovish Bias

A mild miss in last week’s July inflation figures provided a bit of support for the Canadian dollar, which posted weekly gains against most other G10 currencies.

Swiss Growth Slows Amid Trade Tensions; AUD and NZD Diverge on Central Bank Moves

The Swiss franc recovered some of its losses last week. Economic data continues to point to disruptions from Trump’s upending of global trade. After a jump in June, real exports sank in July (-2.7% MoM). US-bound exports rose 1.1%, as buyers raced against time to avoid paying steep levies on products such as watches or machinery.

USD Outlook: Tariff Increases and European Growth Shifts Shape FX Dynamics

ur US economists recently revised their growth forecasts and are now below consensus for the first time in almost three years. At the same time, our European economists responded to the unprecedented German spending plans by upgrading their Euro area growth forecasts despite the looming tariff threats.

USD Strength Persists Amid Tariff Risks, But European Currencies May Rebound in 2H

• Fresh tariff concerns last week gave the USD renewed support. US data, however, are dimming the near-term economic growth outlook. This combination poses headwinds for pro-growth currencies, in our view. 

• A potential ceasefire in Ukraine, greater fiscal spending in Europe, and country-specific factors should continue to shape European currencies, but clarity on these drivers still remain scarce. 

EUR-USD Resilience Holds Amid ECB Rate Cut Expectations and Market Sentiment

USD in Turmoil. Soft Data, Tariff Drama, and Geopolitical Tensions Shape the Dollar's Fate

Germany voted over the weekend, and the results are broadly in line with expectations. The euro got a small boost from the CDU/CSU being able to form a coalition only with the SPD, without any smaller third party. There’s a lot on the table for markets this week, and we expect plenty of noise in FX.