Uncertain ceasefire between Tehran and Washington.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, chairman of the Iranian parliament and Tehran’s chief negotiator, said that Israel’s strike on Lebanon over the weekend and the blockade of Iranian ports are “clear evidence of the United States not observing the ceasefire.”
“Every choice has its price, and the reckoning will finally come. Everything will settle as it should,” he wrote in a post published on X.
Iran, according to Bloomberg, accuses the United States of sending contradictory signals and dragging out negotiations.
Donald Trump meanwhile said that the pressure to end the war quickly hampers negotiations and reaching an agreement.
More on this was written in the article: Dollar rate before the break? Experts warn of a “significant drop in the USD rate in all pairs.”
The comment on the ongoing stalemate in a conversation with FXMAG was given by Adam Fuchs, analyst and currency dealer for services such as Walutomat.pl.
“I personally feel that we are constantly functioning on a seesaw of contradictory reports from the Middle East. We wake up in the morning and hear that the agreement is already close, only to track information about further attacks before lunch, which are meant to confirm this ‘exceptional’ ceasefire,” he said.
“In my opinion investors are already fed up with this roller coaster and increasingly ignore the noise, in line with the trendy saying that they have already switched from the headline ‘Persian Gulf’ and are looking at entirely different impulses. Whether that is right or wrong is another matter. The obvious exception remains oil,” he added.
The best confirmation of the above thesis, according to the expert, seems to be the situation in the currency market.
The EUR/USD rate since mid‑May has been trading in a roughly cent‑level consolidation, roughly in the range 1,157-1,168, which in practice can be considered symbolic volatility. Until the euro‑dollar breaks out of this stagnation, it is hard to talk about any clear direction for the broader market, because without the dollar it simply cannot be discussed.
This arrangement on the main pair also translates into a consolidation of USD/PLN in the range 3,62-3,67. Without a real and respected agreement in the Middle East, it is difficult today to expect a lasting impulse from this direction.
Also read: Dollar rate on a long road to 4 PLN? Expert issued forecasts for USD/PLN and EUR/USD. “The dollar may gain.”
See also: Will the dollar surprise again? Expert issued a forecast for USD/PLN and EUR/USD. “It’s hard for me to believe there will be no more fires.”
Dollar and euro rates. What events to watch in June?
The dollar to zloty rate on Tuesday, June 2 is at 3,63 PLN.
The mentioned impulse, as Adam Fuchs said, should be looked for in the macroeconomic data calendar.
“In the United States, the first week of June will traditionally bring employment data, first on Tuesday JOLTS, then on Wednesday ADP and finally Friday NFP. In this case, the surprise could be signs of a weakening US labor market. On Wednesday we will also learn the Beige Book, the range of publications on which the FOMC (June 17) should base its decision,” the expert informed.
“The closer we get to that last event, the more attention the first meeting of the Committee under the new Fed chief will attract. To an already split body (the most since the 90s) Kevin Warsh may add even more dynamics, but it is still hard to predict what the result will be,” he added.
Equally interesting are the data from Europe.
“On the European side there should also be no lack of emotion. The focus will be on inflation data from the euro zone, and then the EBC meeting on June 11. Market consensus is increasingly moving towards a 25‑basis‑point hike, although I personally am still not convinced that such a move must happen now. Either way, the EBC meeting itself could prove to be a good argument for increased volatility on EUR/USD,” said Adam Fuchs.
And who knows, maybe some impulse will come locally and surprise us again with the RPP or at least the NBP chief during his conference? — he summarized.
Chart. Dollar rate to zloty (USD/PLN)
Source: Trading Economics.
The euro to dollar rate reaches 1,16 USD.
Chart. Euro to dollar rate (EUR/USD)
Source: Trading Economics.
Also read: Dollar rate before the chance to break out? Expert: “Capital will flow back to the USD.”
See also: Dollar rate before a “nervous and dynamic” move, euro waiting to fall? Expert issued a forecast for USD/PLN and EUR/USD
Source: Bloomberg.
