On the domestic debt market, bond yields rose by 3–11 basis points. On Tuesday, investors will focus on US ISM data and the upcoming RPP meeting. We expect EURPLN to stabilize in the 4.25–4.26 range while USDPLN rises toward 3.65–3.66. In the domestic FI market, key signals will remain from the RPP and the geopolitical situation – a moderate message from the Council and de-escalation of tensions would support a decline in bond yields.
Today’s calendar contains no major data releases in Poland or Europe. In the country, the Council of Ministers will review a draft law on personal investment accounts (OKI). The law is planned to enter into force on January 1, 2027.
In the USA we will see trade balance data and the JOLTS report. US foreign trade data may show a deepening deficit in March versus February (consensus: –60.8 bn USD), though it would still be much smaller than a year ago. Key this week will be employment data in the non-agricultural sector in April (Friday), while the JOLTS report will give us an idea of labor market dynamics in March. Median expectations suggest that the number of vacancies may have fallen.
US-Iran cease‑fire under strain
The US‑Iran cease‑fire has been seriously strained after a mutual exchange of fire, and Iran threatened attacks on all vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz. The United States reported that Iran launched maneuvering missiles toward US warships and commercial vessels, while President D. Trump declared that US forces destroyed seven Iranian small boats. Attacks occurred when the US secured two vessels under the American flag attempting to cross the strait as part of the previously announced “Freedom Project.” After announcing the project, Iran declared that it would consider any “US interference” in the Strait of Hormuz a breach of the existing cease‑fire.
PMI and macro data from Poland
POL: The PMI for processing in April slightly rose to 48.8 points from 48.7 points in March, in line with expectations (consensus: 48.7 points, PKOe: 48.6 points). The index remained below 50 points for the 12th month in a row, theoretically indicating an ongoing recession in the sector, although GUS data show production in the sector rose by 8% during this period. The monthly rise in the index results from a “front‑loading” effect, i.e., increased stockpiling in response to expected further supply chain disruptions.
Paradoxically, increasing delivery delays directly raise the index – in normal conditions they would indicate strong demand growth, but currently they are the result of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which distorts the standard interpretation of the index. The manufacturing sector shows mixed trends. On one hand, weak demand negatively affects orders, production, and employment. On the other hand, in the short term production is supported by rebuilding inventories. However, this effect will negatively impact sector results in the medium term.
Although the PMI generally paints a more negative picture of the sector than hard production data, the overall risk balance remains unfavorable, and key sources of uncertainty are the geopolitical situation and commodity prices. More in Macro Flash: Industry still builds up inventories. • POL: EU Commissioner T. Regnier informed that the EU received a loan agreement from Polish authorities regarding SAFE. He added that internal procedures are ongoing and the EU will act quickly. Prime Minister D. Tusk said the government will likely be “ready to sign” the SAFE agreement on Friday.
The EU program provides €150 bn of support for member states, mainly for military equipment purchases, with Poland’s allocation at €43.7 bn.
After signing the agreement, Poland will receive over PLN 20 bn in advance for defense orders.
POL: According to the NBP quarterly survey on the credit market in Q1 2026, banks eased lending criteria for enterprises and households, mainly due to increasing competitive pressure. Banks also relaxed credit terms by reducing the credit margin. At the same time, demand for all types of loans increased. In Q2 2026, banks plan to tighten lending criteria for large enterprises, keep them unchanged for SMEs, and ease them for household loans. Banks expect increased demand for all loan types.
The European Commission’s JRC MARS research center assessed that in the last month most of Poland experienced warmer and drier-than-usual conditions, enabling earlier sowing of spring and summer crops. Since early March, a prolonged lack of rainfall has reduced soil moisture. Although recent rains partially improved the situation, further rainfall will be needed in the coming weeks to support plant growth.
The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management issued drought warnings for hydrological drought in the West Pomeranian, Kujawsko‑Pomeranian, Greater Poland, Masovian, Łódź, Silesian, and Lesser Poland voivodeships. According to IMGW forecasts, in the coming days drought will affect additional areas, including the Subcarpathian voivodeship, and predicted rainfall could cause rapid water level rises in southern Poland.
POL: Energy Minister M. Motyka said that “if the CPN package is extended, it will likely be for another two weeks due to the dynamics of the international situation. Announcements of any end date for the CPN program are premature.” At present, reduced excise duty and lower VAT on fuels apply until mid‑May, and in our view they may remain in place until the end of this year.
POL: The Ministry of Development and Technology informed that it is working on a support mechanism for energy‑intensive enterprises, including subsidies for electricity costs, to be in effect from 2027 to 2029.
POL: The Ministry of Funds and Regional Policy informed that by May 3, agreements were signed for EU funding of projects that will use 63.6% of the available EU cohesion funds for 2021‑2027.
POL: Prime Minister D. Tusk announced that on May 27 Poland will sign a cooperation treaty with the United Kingdom, particularly in defense.
