Clear improvement in Polish retail. Sales up 6.8% nominally
The scale of positive surprise and positive dynamics in all main groups indicate that the improvement has a structural character and confirms the strength of consumer demand.
In nominal terms, sales increased by 6.8% YoY, and the implied sales deflator slowed to 0.6% YoY from 1.4% YoY in May, suggesting that price pressure in retail remains limited. Fuel price increases in June eased, but in July will accelerate again. The deflator also lowered the deeper decline in car prices and the weaker price rise in food than in May (according to CPI, food prices even fell YoY).
Poles went to furniture and electronics (+14.8%)
Sales growth was broad, but it was strongest in durable goods. Furniture, TV and home appliances (+14.8% YoY) grew fastest, continuing a clear rebound. This is consistent with the increase in the number of apartments handed over for use in 2025, which are now being equipped.
Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and orthopaedic equipment sales increased by 10.2% YoY, and other goods by 9.9% YoY. Car sales maintained high momentum (+9.6% YoY), confirming the durability of demand for higher‑value goods. Fuel sales rose by 9.0% YoY, which may have partly reflected purchases before the July price hikes at stations after the CPN program ended. Clothing and footwear (+3.3% YoY), press and books (+3.0% YoY) and food (+1.7% YoY) grew more slowly. The latter category, due to its largest share in overall sales, limited the scale of acceleration.
Strong foundation for GDP growth
The data fit the picture of solid growth in private consumption and support the assessment that GDP in 2Q26 grew by almost 4% YoY. The good consumer situation should sustain sales growth in the coming months, although the pace will likely be lower than in June after the expiration of the calendar effect and increased fuel purchases.
The main risk is rising inflation, which will limit the dynamics of real household incomes and gradually weaken consumption. A more cautious outlook is signaled by a worsening consumer sentiment in July to -10.2 points from -9.9 points in June. Consumers, however, rate the future more positively, giving hope that consumer demand will remain strong in the medium term.
