China: July export momentum expected to soften
China’s data highlight will be trade, set for release on Thursday. After a more resilient than expected trade environment in the first half of 2025, momentum could soften a bit further in July. We’re looking for export growth of around 4.6% year on year, while imports could turn negative again at -1.9% YoY, for a trade balance of $103.4bn
Japan: Labour cash earnings and household spending to grow
Data on labour cash earnings and household spending should dominate Japan’s week. We expect both to grow steadily on the back of strong wage gains. While labour cash earnings are expected to rise 3.5% YoY, real earnings could remain in contractionary territory thanks to rising inflation. Household spending rose markedly in May. Thus, we expect some moderation in June.
Taiwan: Export growth expected to continue while inflation cools
Taiwan’s release of trade and inflation data will garner significant attention. Exports have surged in recent months, and we expect this momentum to carry into July. We’re looking for a 40.2% YoY spike in exports along with a 22.7% YoY increase in imports, bringing the trade balance to $13bn. After being hit with a 20% tariff, there’s a risk that export momentum could soften in the later months. Much remains up in the air with sectoral tariffs, which are very important given the high concentration of tech exports to the US.
Inflation data is out on Wednesday. We’re looking for a further cooling of price pressures to 1.3% YoY in July. Though inflation is now comfortably below the 2% target, consistently strong growth would signal that an easing move doesn’t look likely at the next central bank meeting in September.
South Korea: Inflation expected to remain steady
South Korean consumer inflation is expected to stay at 2.2% YoY in July. Subway prices rose in the Seoul metropolitan area, while gasoline prices also increased slightly. Food prices are expected to rise, too, despite government voucher programmes, amid heat waves in July. This probably hurt the harvest of fresh
India: RBI expected to hold rates steady
We expect the Reserve Bank of India to hold rates steady on Wednesday, following June's 50 bp cut. While signalling a pause in June, the RBI remains open to further easing if growth or inflation weakens. Our own growth view is slightly softer than RBI's. With real rates still elevated, we continue to expect a 25 bp cut later this year in the fourth quarter.
