Strait of Hormuz Capacity in Trump’s Hands
The United States will provide support to some vessels leaving the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, announced Donald Trump.
“In the interest of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have informed these countries that we will safely escort their ships out of these closed waters so they can continue their operations freely and efficiently,” he said in a post on Truth Social.
“I repeat, these are ships from regions of the world that have no connection to the current events in the Middle East,” he added.
The U.S. President announced that the operation is called “Project Freedom,” though he gave no details on how to increase the strategic route’s throughput.
“I am fully aware that my representatives are having very fruitful talks with Iran and that these talks could lead to something very positive for everyone,” he said.
The Republican maintains that aid in the strait “is intended only to free people, companies, and countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong, they are victims of circumstances.”
“This is a humanitarian gesture from the United States, Middle Eastern countries, and especially Iran. [...] If in any way this humanitarian process is disrupted, we unfortunately will have to address this interference by force,” we read.
Oil prices remain above 100 USD per barrel due to supply disruptions.
Voices are emerging that the ongoing stalemate in the Middle East could give Republicans a defeat in the November midterms, mainly due to American frustration over high gasoline prices, among other things.
Brent futures contracts at the start of the week hovered around 108 USD per barrel, while WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil pricing is approaching 103 USD per barrel.
Source: Truth Social.
Also read: Suspicious oil market transactions. Insider traders earned billions. “A frightening example of market manipulation.”
See also: Will the dollar return to 4 PLN? A land invasion of Iran remains a threat. Expert: “Unlikely, but still potentially possible.”
Dollar and Euro rates on Monday, May 4
The dollar to zloty on Monday, May 4 is at 3,62 PLN.
Analysts at Crédit Agricole in their latest report maintained a positive stance on the U.S. currency, stating that “the dollar remains the world's leading reserve currency.”
“There are no credible alternatives,” they said.
“This high‑yielding, safe‑haven market king should still enjoy support, even if geopolitical risk in the Middle East starts to wane, given that we expect the U.S. economy to outperform many European and Asian economies,” the report said.
“Solid economic prospects and persistent inflation should pose a challenge to the still dovish market stance toward the Fed. Uncertainty about U.S. policy may persist, but we believe the narrative of U.S. and dollar exceptionalism remains relevant. Currency investors may wait for confirmation that foreign portfolio inflows into the U.S. are ongoing before deciding to buy dollars,” added.
According to Crédit Agricole forecasts, the rate will be at 3,75 PLN by the end of June, 3,78 PLN by the end of September, and 3,72 PLN by the end of December.
Chart. Dollar to zloty (USD/PLN)
Source: TradingView.
The euro to dollar reaches 1,17 USD.
Economists forecast the rate to fall to 1,14 USD by the end of June, 1,12 USD by the end of September, and 1,13 USD by the end of December.
Chart. Euro to dollar (EUR/USD)
Source: TradingView.
Also read: Will the dollar surprise again? The expert issued a forecast for USD/PLN and EUR/USD. “It’s hard for me to believe there will be no more fires.”
See also: Dollar rate before the “nervous and dynamic” move, euro waiting for a drop? The expert issued a forecast for USD/PLN and EUR/USD.
