In order for the new tax to take effect on 1 August 2026, the draft law must first be quickly adopted by the government, then approved by parliament and the president. The money that will flow into the state budget is intended to compensate for losses related to the introduction of the CPN package (Lower Fuel Prices), which lowered VAT from 23% to 8% and the excise duty to the minimum acceptable by the European Commission.
"The escalation of military actions in the Persian Gulf region led to an actual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – a strategic choke point through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. The sudden and drastic reduction in the supply of the commodity triggered a strong reaction in commodity markets: the price of Brent crude rose from about 65 USD per barrel in January 2026 to a peak of 126 USD per barrel in March 2026" – the justification for the draft law states.
Is Orlen the largest taxpayer of the new tax?
The Ministry of Finance and the Energy Regulation Office (URE) estimate that the new tax could affect 20–30 companies in Poland. These are enterprises that, after the outbreak of war in the Persian Gulf region, which caused a global fuel crisis, began to record excessive profits from refining and selling fuel, including that imported from abroad.
It may seem that Orlen would be one of the largest taxpayers, especially in the early period after the conflict in Iran erupted, when it began to inflate fuel prices at stations – a practice that, as economists pointed out at the time, had no justification, because the conglomerate was still selling fuel from its own warehouses, and Poland mainly obtains oil from sources other than the Middle East.
Unexpectedly in April Orlen did not publish monthly data on model refinery, petrochemical, and differential margins. At that point voices began to emerge that the company was trying to hide huge profits earned by raising fuel prices at stations that Poles had to pay for. We wrote about this on FXMAG here.
Companies will have to pay tax on profits from March
The Ministry of Finance wants companies to pay the tax not only for the excessive profit achieved after the law came into force, but also for the entire period retroactively, i.e. from March, when the fuel crisis triggered by the war in the Middle East appeared. The tax will cover the period from 1 March to 31 December 2026. It will apply to all companies, including small and medium enterprises that profit from producing and importing fuel from abroad. Importantly, the tax will not be considered a deductible expense for PIT and CIT, meaning it will not reduce the income tax. Companies producing heating fuel will not be subject to the tax.
The tax will be calculated based on a comparison of actual revenues with hypothetical ones. The hypothetical revenue is the amount a company would obtain by applying a reference margin – the average sales margin from the last fiscal year (ending before the period covered by the tax, i.e. before 1 March 2026) increased by 20%. Everything above this threshold will be taxed at 75%.
The finance ministry estimates that the tax will bring between 4.2 and 5.1 billion PLN to the state budget. These funds are intended to cover losses related to the introduction of the CPN package, which helped curb fuel price increases at stations in Poland. The ministry calculates that the VAT reduction from 23% to 8% costs the state budget 2.9 billion PLN. An additional 1.2 billion PLN represents losses caused by the excise duty reduction.
See also: The government has made a decision regarding the CPN package. Poles will feel it in their wallets
