These releases are likely to set the direction for Wall Street, the dollar, and overall global sentiment.
It is also impossible to ignore reports of a failed attack during the annual White House Correspondents’ Dinner, in which Donald Trump, likely the direct target of the assault, participated.
Geopolitics and the Iranian thread
The Iranian thread remains a priority, as any shift in the narrative around the talks can immediately affect the energy market dynamics.
Signals of de-escalation could prompt oil to give back some of its recent gains, which in turn would support market sentiment and strengthen higher-risk currencies.
Conversely, a return of fears about conflict escalation would reward safe havens, primarily the dollar, as the yen and gold are now driven by other factors.
Although the negotiations have officially stalled, Iran shows some initiative, indicating conditions necessary to keep the Strait of Hormuz open while postponing the nuclear deal issue for later.
The Axios agency suggests that Tehran’s proposals aim to weaken Donald Trump’s negotiating position in future talks.
It is worth noting that the U.S. president canceled a high-level diplomatic visit to Pakistan, citing a lack of genuine willingness to negotiate from the Iranian side.
Political risk in the U.S.
Donald Trump’s presence remains a second key pillar of market narrative.
After the attempted attack, the political risk theme in the United States returns with force during moments of uncertainty.
The market quickly prices in potential consequences for the dollar, Treasury yields, and defensive assets.
Trump is also a central figure in the context of future U.S. trade, fiscal, and geopolitical policy.
This means that his presence in the media headlines can generate volatility spikes stronger than data releases or central bank decisions, of which there are quite a few this week.
Wall Street before the biggest test
Despite tensions in the Middle East, Wall Street consistently remains in the realm of historical highs.
The biggest test of this quarter for the U.S. equity market is the earnings of the largest corporations.
On Wednesday, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon will present their reports, and on Thursday we will see Apple’s results.
Investors will be particularly sensitive to information about the return on the massive investments in artificial intelligence development.
Although the earnings season has so far been successful, the health of this group of companies will decide the future fate of major U.S. and global stock indices.
Central banks and holiday liquidity
An additional risk factor is the shortened, holiday week. Lower liquidity means the market can react more sharply to single reports from Iran, comments on the U.S. political situation, or surprises in tech reports.
One should also remember the cumulative decisions of the major central banks. In the coming days, the Fed, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada will present their communications.
These events will have a fundamental impact on pairs such as EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, or USDCAD.
It is worth noting that although the United States does not observe Labor Day on May 1, the overall volatility in international markets may be limited on the upcoming Friday due to holidays in many other economies.
Before 09:00, currency rates are as follows: we pay 3.6191 PLN for the dollar, 4.2426 PLN for the euro, 4.8983 PLN for the pound, and 4.6087 PLN for the Swiss franc.
