The broader macroeconomic situation in the United States, which also affects the euro rate, does not look good.
The euro rate is expected to fall, the bank says
It is enough to point to the new CPI inflation data, which may have also worried FX market investors.
Inflation rose in April by 3.8% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, the U.S. Department of Labor said on Tuesday.
Meanwhile core inflation, which excludes fuel and food prices, rose by 0,4% MoM and 2.8% YoY.
Read more about this in the article: The dollar rate reacts to new data! Inflation unexpectedly accelerated. Chances of rate cuts are falling.
“We see a slightly higher risk of oil price increases compared to current levels, the EUR/USD rate may dip slightly in upcoming sessions,” analysts at ING Think said.
“However, at 1.1650 another strong demand should appear. Today's calendar includes the second release of eurozone GDP data for Q1 2026, expected growth of 0.1% QoQ, and several speeches by EBC representatives,” they added.
Economists say the most important will still be the speeches by Christine Lagarde and Philip Lane, which will take place in the evening.
“Expect them to maintain the outlook for an interest rate hike by the ECB in June; otherwise the euro will suffer,” they stated.
Thus, the next ECB decision on eurozone interest rates will be significant.
The meeting will take place on 10–11 June, and, according to the bank, the main interest rate will be kept at 2.15%.
Source: Trading Economics.
Read also: The dollar rate changed direction. Trump visits Beijing. “I need this summit more than Xi.”
See also: The euro rate rockets, there’s one “but.” The bank convinces of an upcoming “wave of positive sentiment.”
Euro and dollar rates on May 13
The euro to dollar rate is currently at 1.17 USD.
The ING Think team says that the longer the U.S. and Iran do not reach an agreement, “there is a greater risk of growth for the U.S. dollar, both short- and medium-term.”
“The second through longer global economic strain, with which the dollar is usually negatively correlated,” they warn.
“Our assessment of the EUR/USD pair remains pessimistic, unless we start seeing concrete steps toward a peaceful agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Breaking the 1.180 level in this environment seems unlikely, and a second test of 1.170 is even more so,” the ING Think analysts summarize.
Chart. Euro to dollar rate (EUR/USD)
Source: Trading Economics.
The dollar to zloty rate reaches 3.62 PLN.
Chart. Dollar to zloty rate (USD/PLN)
Source: Trading Economics.
Read also: Will the dollar surprise again? The expert issued a forecast for USD/PLN and EUR/USD. “It’s hard for me to believe there will be no more fires.”
See also: The dollar before a “nervous and dynamic” move, the euro waiting for a fall? The expert issued a forecast for USD/PLN and EUR/USD.
Source: ING Think.
