Zloty and bonds await June inflation
From the perspective of the zloty and domestic assets, the main event today will be the release of domestic inflation data. However, we do not expect significant volatility, as market pricing no longer assumes any interest rate hikes by the NBP this year.
Nevertheless, yields on Polish bonds remain above levels before the Gulf War, so a potential positive surprise in the data could support the debt.
On Monday's session, equity indices fell to about 0.6%. In currency markets, most currencies lost against the euro. The EUR/PLN rate oscillated in a very narrow range of 4.283-4.29, and after an initial drop to about 4.286 it returned toward 4.288.
In the interest rate market, after a slight rate cut at the start of the session, rates rose by about 6 basis points later in the day, then returned to near opening levels by the end of the day. Bond yields rose slightly. At the end of the session, the yield on 10‑year bonds was about 5.32%.
Oil prices rise again, Middle East worries markets
The start of the week was marked by modest declines in European equity indices. The US session began with gains. Market participants were also concerned about overly high valuations related to AI. Investors also analyzed information about US‑Iran talks.
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister K. Gharibabadi said that no technical talks are scheduled for this week regarding the agreement reached on June 17, but they will resume next week. US President D. Trump announced that Iran requested a meeting with US officials, which is to take place today in Doha regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Due to the ongoing tense situation in the Middle East, oil prices rose again to about $73.
The EUR/USD rate gradually rose from about 1.138 to about 1.143. Support for the euro came from a good reading of the eurozone economic sentiment index, which rose in June to 95 points from 93.7 points in the previous month, after a correction and expectations of 94.3 points. In core debt markets, yield changes were limited with a slight upward trend for German government bonds. At the end of the session, 10‑year German Bund yields were about 2.86%, and US yields about 4.37%.
