At the same time, despite the increase compared to February, real wage growth fell in March to about 3.5% YoY. Average employment fell 0.1% MoM and 0.9% YoY, deepening the downward trend observed for several months.
The Polish labour market remains in good shape, but it is losing momentum. Nominal wage growth is gradually slowing and we expect it to decline further to around 5%. In March, real wage growth significantly slowed along with inflation driven by the situation in the Middle East, meaning that wages, after accounting for inflation, are rising much more slowly.
At the same time, in April real wage growth should accelerate again thanks to the reduction of VAT and excise on fuels, which will translate into lower inflation and partially offset the shock in the fuel market.
Employment in large enterprises has been falling for over a year, especially in industry, trade and transport. The unemployment rate recorded in March remained at 6.1%, but the number of unemployed is still higher than a year ago.
A key signal of cooling is the decreasing number of job advertisements, which means weaker demand for workers and a worsening bargaining position for employees.
The labour market is increasingly shifting from an employee market to an employer market. At the same time, structural factors such as demographics and still solid economic growth prospects should limit the scale of deterioration in the labour market. – commented the data, Andrzej Gwiżdż, analyst at the investment platform Port.
