The last few weeks have brought a lot of nervousness that the global safe‑haven market has not experienced in a long time.
The king rests, but the crown does not give up
Gold spot recorded a quick rebound of 1.02%, ultimately stabilizing around 4541 USD per ounce. For Sunday investors used to only green candles, this is a cause for panic. For market traders it is just pure and ruthless mathematics. We are dealing with a classic anticipation before reaching new psychological barriers. The market simply takes a short break, not a permanent retreat.
Central banks worldwide do not intend to stop buying physical bullion. The process of global dedollarization and diversification of currency reserves is progressing well, generating powerful and steady institutional demand. The commodity strategy from RBC Capital Markets, Christopher Louney, and his team clearly suggests that current price declines should be seen as a great opportunity to enter the market. Those who missed the earlier train are now getting a second chance.
See also: How to safely buy gold? A guide for beginner investors
Iranian poker and geopolitical liquidity premium
Geopolitics has stirred up the global trading board. Reports of a potential ceasefire between the US and Iran brought temporary relief to the markets and effectively cooled sentiment. Lloyd Chan from MUFG Global Markets Research notes a sharp drop in the geopolitical risk premium, which quickly pulled some speculative capital away from precious metals.
Meanwhile Bob Savage from BNY emphasizes that gold acted as a textbook liquidity tool in this arrangement – it gained hope for peace while losing short‑term war profit.
Does this signal a lasting trend change? Unlikely. The multipolar geopolitical environment still favors hard assets. Although the war with Iran formally continues, increasingly frequent reports of peace talks and concrete agreements between Washington and Tehran suggest the conflict may be in its final phase before peace.
Some analysts (such as Massimiliano Castelli from UBS Asset Management) predict a weakening of the USD index after the final end of the Middle East war, which will clearly open the way for gold bulls to new highs.
Chart. Gold spot price (XAU/USD)
Source: Trading Economics
See also: Central banks have gone crazy for gold. XAU/USD still disappoints
Silver in the shadow of the giant
While most media focus on gold prices, silver has been playing a completely different market game over the past weeks. After record highs in January of this year, it has disappeared, and the metal constantly fights to break the psychological barrier of 80 USD with multiple successes. Although silver remains a key raw material for the tech industry, its recent volatility effectively pulls investors away.
Gold is treated institutionally as an asset that effectively resists macroeconomic inflation. Silver remains highly sensitive to overall risk sentiment and daily forex currency fluctuations. The tech industry will surely pump silver prices on the spot market, but rumors of a bursting AI bubble (Microsoft bans developers from using Claude) could shake the metal’s price.
The great metals rally is not over – the market is simply recharging batteries for another spectacular climb to the top.
Chart. Silver spot price (XAG/USD)
Source: Trading Economics
See also: They fear that funds are being allocated in the dollar! USD and oil rise, while gold and Bitcoin fall
Source:
