Middle East once again rattles charts
According to CNN, despite the slowdown of armed actions between the United States and Iran, which led to multi‑percent drops in oil prices, movement in the Strait of Hormuz remains limited.
According to shipping data from last weekend, the route was traversed by fewer than 10 cargo ships.
By comparison, before the outbreak of war in the Middle East this number fluctuated around 100.
“Oil traders are doubly cautious due to the threat of attacks on Saudi tankers by Iran‑backed rebel Houthi forces in the Bab el‑Mandeb strait at the mouth of the Red Sea,” CNN reports.
At the same time, tensions are rising between Tehran and Kyiv after a Ukrainian drone struck a floating unit in the Caspian Sea.
The attack injured three crew members, and one sailor died aboard the ship.
Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, stating that the event “cannot remain unanswered.”
Analysts from ING Think point out that the above events directly affect not only the commodity market but also currency rates.
“The EUR/USD rate rebounded above 1,140 due to today’s sharp drop in oil prices. Nevertheless, this move seems slightly too optimistic, given the lack of a clear path to de‑escalation,” they said.
“Any further military attacks could quickly bring Brent oil back to 100 USD per barrel and the EUR/USD rate below 1.1380. A potential pre‑FOMC dollar purchase could also pressure this rate on Wednesday,” they added.
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Euro rate on Monday, July 27
The euro to zloty rate on Monday, July 27 is at 4,31 PLN.
In the ING Think report we read that euro prices remain sensitive to the ongoing high gas prices.
“This is another reason why we maintain caution regarding the EUR/USD rate, unless tensions ease quickly. Even after today’s drop, the TTF price is 58 EUR per kWh, over 30% above July‑start levels and approaching March peaks,” the report said.
“While Brent oil is far from its peaks, gas prices are at their level. Given the importance of gas for energy imports in the euro zone, euro trading conditions, the statistically most important medium‑term factor affecting EUR valuation, also oscillate near March lows and at levels comparable to 2023,” added.
Chart. Euro to zloty rate (EUR/PLN)
Source: Trading Economics.
The euro to dollar rate reaches 1,13 USD.
Chart. Euro to dollar rate (EUR/USD)
Source: Trading Economics.
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Sources: CNN, ING Think.
