The modern exchange is a network of interconnected systems, constantly fed by AI‑based transaction engines capable of processing every political message in seconds.
When the U.S. President’s posts dictate market conditions
Saturday’s Trump post on social media triggered a massive wave of sell orders. The U.S. President announced that Washington and Iran had "largely negotiated" a peace agreement. The commodity market reacted instantly, and AI algorithms analyzing sentiment immediately shifted to bear mode.
As a result, Monday’s trading brought a sharp dip. Futures on Brent crude fell by 5.33%, dropping to 98 USD per barrel. U.S. WTI crude fell even harder – its price dropped by over 5.60%, bringing sweet and light crude to 91.21 USD per barrel.
Chart. Brent crude futures prices
Source: Trading Economics.
Both varieties of "black gold" hit their lowest levels since May 7. From a technical trading perspective, such a sudden dip destroyed existing support lines, showing how much speculative capital waited for a signal to exit long positions.
Notably, European natural gas also saw a similar discount. Contracts for the next month fell in Asia by as much as 5.9%, reaching a low of 45.81 EUR/MWh. This is the result of optimism and faith that key Middle Eastern trade routes will be safe again.
Chart. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) futures prices
Source: Trading Economics.
See also: On the horizon, is cheaper fuel a possibility? What’s happening on global exchanges suggests things may improve.
Will the Strait of Hormuz finally open?
The main prize in this geopolitical game is the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict erupted, this strategic choke point in the Persian Gulf accounted for 20% of global oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and fertilizer supplies. Closing this water highway disrupted the global economy like a sudden power outage – it paralysed supply chains, and margins reacted instantly.
Trump stoked market enthusiasm by writing that negotiations were proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and U.S. relations with Iran were becoming far more professional and productive.
Saul Kavonic, analyst at MST Marquee, noted that despite numerous concerns and risks associated with the ongoing blockade around the Strait of Hormuz, a light is beginning to appear in the geopolitical tunnel, promising markets anticipated but short‑term relief.
See also: Oil stocks melt at record pace. A warning from a well‑known bank.
Market pragmatism and the U.S. shale counterattack
Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING Think, rightly tones down speculator sentiment, reminding that the market has been in a similar place before, and talks can collapse at the very last moment. This happened both before the war (when U.S. and Iranian delegations discussed how to prevent war and favour diplomacy), and during peace talks in April.
Therefore, investors should keep a reasonable reserve before overreacting. Even if documents are signed, returning to normal commodity flows will take months. All because of damage to gas and oil infrastructure that cannot be rebuilt overnight.
In the background of this diplomatic telenovela, U.S. shale producers are not wasting time. Responding to earlier high domestic energy prices, local firms increased the number of active drilling rigs for the fifth week in a row, the first such streak since February 2025.
Although this is a solid supply growth signal, the overall balance remains 1% lower than the same period last year.
See also: Orlen under cybercriminals’ target. Most attacks are said to come from the "East".
Source: Reuters, ING Think.
