IUX Under the Microscope: Low-Cost Entry, Massive Leverage, and the Question of Where Flexibility Ends

iFX EXPO International 2026 Continues Today Following Strong Opening Day in Cyprus

Global Online Trading Industry Set to Converge for iFX EXPO International 2026

iFX EXPO International Brings Big Industry Leaders to the Stage

The Hidden Cost of Running MT5 and Your CRM as Separate Systems

EUR/USD Course at Psychological Barrier 1.14. US Labor Market Under Pressure of Expectations

FXMAG Team

Obserwuj nas

Google News

Due to the 250th anniversary celebrations of the United States, the NFP data will be unusually released today instead of tomorrow.

The market expects that in June the number of non‑farm jobs in the US rose by 110,000, after a solid increase of 172,000 in May.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%, while the annual wage growth is expected to slightly accelerate from 3.4% to 3.5%.

magnific.com

US Labor Market Under Pressure of Expectations
Key Dollar Test

US Labor Market Under Pressure of Expectations

The ADP report published yesterday showed that private sector employment increased by 98,000 in June, less than the expected 113,000. This may suggest a slowdown in the pace of new job creation.

More cautious than the market are TD Securities analysts, who forecast an NFP increase of 80,000. Meanwhile, the National Bank of Canada expects a figure of 90,000, indicating a still solid, though weaker than before, pace of employment growth and a modest rise in new unemployment benefit claims.

Labor market data will be important for expectations regarding Fed policy and dollar levels. Investors increasingly factor in a scenario of a more restrictive monetary policy, including the possibility of a rate hike.

Key Dollar Test

According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in July rose to about 30%, versus 6% at the beginning of June. The U.S. dollar remains strong because the market still fears persistent inflation, and the Fed may focus primarily on price pressure, even with signs of a weakening labor market.

An NFP reading of 130,000 or higher could strengthen expectations for a Fed rate hike and support the dollar, favoring further decline in the EUR/USD rate, which is currently just below the psychological barrier of 1.14.

Conversely, a very weak result below 70,000 could lead to a short‑term rebound of the euro against the dollar. A sustained improvement in EUR/USD levels would, however, be unlikely unless the Fed shifts to a more dovish tone.

Advertising

FXMAG Team

FXMAG’s editorial team creates high-quality content on financial markets, investing, and the global economy. We provide timely analysis and clear insights to help our audience navigate complex market dynamics.