Italian key to American success
Technoprobe SpA, controlled by a family of billionaires and employing over 3,000 staff, has become one of the biggest winners of the AI boom on the Old Continent.
The company’s share price exploded by more than 330% over the past year. Although it has recently experienced a slight correction (following the entire semiconductor sector), it still became the fifth best performer in the Stoxx Europe 600 index after its March debut in 2026.
On July 10, Technoprobe’s share price dipped slightly by 0,63% to a level of 31,64 EUR.
What does this market bomb do? Technoprobe’s specialty is the so‑called probe cards, “probe cards”, i.e. technologically advanced components used for testing microchips before they reach smartphones or AI accelerators from Nvidia.
The expansion of data centres drives demand for powerful processors, which automatically generates a huge need for verification equipment. As Ken Hui, director at Bakewell Alpha Fund, notes, the more complex AI systems become, the longer they take to test, which directly translates into a snowballing increase in the volume of probe cards ordered.
Chart. Technoprobe SpA share price
Source: TradingView.
See also: Nvidia shares jumped 41%. The AI bubble dampens sentiment, will earnings drive the rally?
Nvidia hands out cards, Italians collect chips
Previously, the probe card market was mainly driven by fierce price competition, as chip architectures were simpler.
Today’s, hellishly complex systems (such as Nvidia’s Blackwell architecture, combining two silicon crystals in one package) require top‑tier testing. This is the perfect environment for Technoprobe, which has taken the premium segment by storm.
Bank of America analysts say the Italian firm will maintain a lion’s share of orders for testing GPUs for Nvidia and have named the company their favorite among European mid‑cap firms.
Importantly, this technological wind in the sails does not blow from just one client. The growing complexity of memory and custom logic circuits means that global demand will outpace supply for a long time.
The financial effects of this eldorado are visible in plain sight. In May, Technoprobe raised its 2027 financial forecasts, announcing that it intends to achieve them a year early.
Shares surged a record 32% in a single session. The company estimates its EBITDA margin at about 45%, a huge jump from the 32% recorded last year.
Behind such a dynamic rally are also hard technical factors. Technoprobe’s free float is less than one‑fifth of all shares. The founding Crippa family controls more than half of the business, and key technology partners (Teradyne Inc. and Advantest Corp.) hold a combined 15% stake.
The product is therefore limited, which has propelled the valuation into the stratosphere.
See also: Nvidia, Intel and AMD stocks on the brink? AI devours the familiar industry
What will the August truth test bring?
The next quarterly report will hit the market in August. Investors will closely watch the plans for expanding production capacity, which are set to finish in the first quarter of 2027.
A key issue remains how quickly Technoprobe will obtain certification from major high‑bandwidth memory manufacturers “HBM”, which today account for only a fraction of its revenue.
Some experts, such as Giovanni Selvetti from Berenberg, approach the topic cautiously and advise “hold”, deeming the current valuation stretched to its limits. Meanwhile Adam Montanaro from Montanaro Asset Management looks to the future with optimism.
He argues that evaluating Technoprobe through simple, one‑year metrics causes us to miss its true long‑term potential. Demand for advanced test cards is essentially unsatiated, and the company must grow rapidly to keep pace with the market.
It turns out that in the AI arms race, Italians are delivering the best ammunition.
See also: Nvidia shares plummeted! Jensen Huang encourages buying. “Everyone should be very excited”
Source: Bloomberg.
